Bucs, Panthers clash for top NFC South spot | NFL preview video
Two of the AFC’s top teams clash as he Jaguars visit the Broncos. The Bucs need a win over the Panthers as they are locked in a tight NFC South race.
Getting into the playoffs hasn’t been easy for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the past three seasons, but they’ve done it. The quest in 2025 has an added twist: It all comes down to two games over the final three weeks.
The Bucs have won four straight NFC South titles since winning the Super Bowl in 2021. They looked like favorites to win it again, but they’ve struggled after their bye week, falling from 6-2 to 7-7. Tampa has gradually gotten their key players on offense healthy again, from Bucky Irving to Chris Godwin and finally Mike Evans last week. But ongoing struggles by Baker Mayfield and a porous defense has allowed the Carolina Panthers to pull even with them in the division race.
That sets up a rare sprint to the finish. The two division rivals have yet to face off this season, with today’s game in Charlotte and the season finale in Tampa effectively deciding the NFC South champion and, barring an utter collapse by the Philadelphia Eagles, the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoff picture.
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Bryce Young and the Panthers haven’t exactly set the world on fire in their pursuit of their first division crown since making the Super Bowl in the 2015 season. Carolina has alternated wins and losses since late October, and last week they lost for the second time to the New Orleans Saints, who have only four wins this season.
According to The Athletic’s playoff simulator, the Bucs have about an 88% chance to win the division as long as they at least earn a split with the Panthers in their two upcoming games. But that would bring the NFL’s tiebreaker into play, and then it could come down to the results of the game between the two divisional showdowns. Here’s a look at the playoff scenarios in the NFC South, plus how to watch Bucs-Panthers today on TV and streaming:
NFC playoff picture
The four division leaders hold the top four seeds in the playoffs, with the top seven teams overall qualifying for the playoffs. Records accurate entering Sunday’s games:
Seattle (12-3) – xChicago (11-4)Philadelphia (10-5)Tampa Bay (7-7)LA Rams (11-4) – xSan Francisco (10-4)Green Bay (9-5-1)Detroit (8-6)Carolina (7-7)Dallas (6-7-1)Buccaneers vs Panthers tiebreakers
If the Bucs and Panthers split their two head-to-head games to close the season, the NFC South will come down to a tiebreaker. Here’s how those scenarios currently play out:
Head-to-head results (TB and CAR play each other twice in final three weeks)Best record in division games (TB and CAR both 2-2)Best record in common games (TB leads after beating Arizona, which beat CAR. TB also beat Seattle, which CAR plays in Week 17. CAR beat Miami, which TB plays in Week 17.)Best record in conference games (CAR is 5-4 against NFC opponents; TB is 5-5)Strength of victory in all games (CAR’s wins came against teams that are a combined 45-51-2; TB’s are 45-53)Strength of schedule in all games (both TB’s and CAR’s opponents have a win percentage of .517)Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games (TB leads at 20 — they’re 8th in the NFC in points scored and 12th in points allowed. CAR is at 22 — 15th and 7th, respectively.)Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games (TB leads at 40 — they’re 16th in points scored and 24th in points allowed. CAR is at 42 — 28th and 14th, respectively.)Point differential in common games (TB leads at -10 against common opponents; CAR is -46)Point differential in all games (TB leads at -27; CAR is -53)Touchdown differential (CAR leads at -6; TB is -7)Coin tossBuccaneers schedule
Here’s a look at Tampa Bay’s schedule for the final month of the season. All times Eastern:
Dec. 7: New Orleans 24, Tampa Bay 20Dec. 11: Atlanta 29, Tampa Bay 28Dec. 21: Tampa Bay at Carolina | 1 p.m. | FoxDec. 28: Tampa Bay at Miami | 1 p.m. | FoxTBD: Carolina at Tampa Bay | TBARecord: 7-7Panthers schedule
Here’s a look at Carolina’s schedule for the final month of the season. All times Eastern:
Dec. 7: ByeDec. 14: New Orleans 20, Carolina 17Dec. 21: Tampa Bay at Carolina | 1 p.m. | FoxDec. 28: Seattle at Carolina | 1 p.m. | CBSTBD: Carolina at Tampa Bay | TBARecord: 7-7How to watch Buccaneers vs PanthersStart time: 1 p.m. ETTV channel: FoxLive streaming: Fubo (free trial)