Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 16’s game between the Denver Broncos and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Denver is 12–2, leading the AFC West, and every win keeps the AFC’s top-line math within reach. Jacksonville is 10–4, leading the AFC South, and a road cover here keeps its division grip firm while shaping the wild-card traffic behind it. This game also lands in the league’s Sunday window of consequences, where one result ricochets through tiebreakers, opponent records, and January travel. The altitude adds a late-game tax, and it usually charges the offense first. Jakobi Meyers just put ink to a Jaguars extension, and that kind of timing tells a locker room what it believes. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 16’s game between the Denver Broncos and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Jacksonville’s case starts with current shape, because Trevor Lawrence (QB) has tilted from solid to scorching. He’s at 0.14 EPA per play on the season, then 0.37 over the last four. He’s also gone vertical lately with a 10.3 ADOT and a 14.3% explosive-pass rate. Denver brings heat with a 40.2% pressure rate and a 10.1% sack rate, built by Zach Allen (DL) at 55 pressures and Nik Bonitto (EDGE) at 50 pressures and 12.5 sacks. Lawrence has still handled it better recently, posting 0.31 EPA per play when pressured in that last-four sample. Liam Coen keeps the offense balanced early, with a 51.8% early-down pass rate, then turns the red zone into a run-first thesis. Jacksonville runs it 58.0% of the time down there, and Travis Etienne (RB) owns that world with 49 red-zone rushes and nine red-zone targets.
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR) carries the field-stretching profile with a 14.5 ADOT, and Brenton Strange (TE) lives in the chain-moving space at 1.70 YPRR. The perfect connector is Meyers (WR), because he turns man rules into simple completions, sitting at 2.16 YPRR on a 9.6 ADOT with four inside-ten targets.
Denver’s offense can answer, and that matters for a dog, because Bo Nix (QB) is at 0.16 EPA per play on the year and 0.32 over his last four. He’s surgical from clean pockets at 0.51 EPA per play lately, so Jacksonville’s rush has to land early. Courtland Sutton (WR) is the weekly stabilizer with 100 targets, 43 on third down, and 13 in the red zone. Troy Franklin (WR) adds the detonation element with 94 targets, a 13.2 ADOT, and 16 red-zone targets.
Jaguars vs. Broncos pick, best bet
That’s why the bet is the points, not a logo. DraftKings is dealing Denver as the favorite around a field goal, with the total sitting in the high forties. I want Jacksonville +3.5, because this matchup has too many stay-alive paths for a well-coached offense playing hot. The earned-points tree is Jacksonville staying on schedule, leaning into Meyers’ separation and Strange’s efficiency, then letting Etienne finish. The explosive tree is Thomas Jr. landing a deep shot when Denver’s man rules get aggressive. The chaos tree is a single interception and a single red-zone touchdown turning a close game into a cover. Injury notes also support a tighter game, with Brandon Jones (S) on injured reserve for Denver and Justin Strnad (LB) out, while Jacksonville lists Bhayshul Tuten (RB), Danny Striggow (DE), and Jalen McLeod (LB) out.
Jacksonville should live in balanced early-down looks because the pass rate already sits at 51.8%, and it keeps Denver guessing. Coen should keep marrying run looks to quick answers because Denver’s red-zone blitz rate is 41.6%, and that invites leverage throws. Jacksonville should also treat Meyers as the rhythm key because Denver plays man at 38.9%, and option routes punish that structure. Defensively, Jacksonville should chase four-man wins because Nix punishes blitz looks, yet his pressured efficiency dips hard lately. That means Josh Hines-Allen (EDGE) has to turn 64 pressures into disruptions that change reads, not just metrics. Denver should keep feeding Sutton on money downs because his third-down volume is the offense’s stabilizer. This game feels like a seeding stress test, not a mismatch, and the points match the moment.
I’ve got Denver winning the division race conversation, but Jacksonville keeping its AFC South grip, 27–24 Broncos.
Best bet: Jaguars +3.5 (-120) at Broncos
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I’m taking Jakobi Meyers (WR) 60+ receiving yards at +115 on DraftKings, and I’m fine down to +105 if the number tightens. Denver lives in man at 38.9% and brings heat at 31.4%, which invites option routes and quick separators. Meyers fits that script at 2.16 YPRR with a 9.6 aDOT, so he doesn’t need a broken play. Lawrence’s last-four profile is hot enough to support it, jumping to 0.37 EPA/play with a 10.3 ADOT and a 14.3% explosive rate. Denver’s rush will land, because it’s generating 40.2% pressure with a 10.1% sack rate, but that can actually feed the connector. Lawrence has still produced 0.31 EPA/play when pressured lately, which keeps completions alive in the teeth of the rush. Meyers also carries real scoring trust with four targets inside the ten, so his routes stay meaningful late. Jacksonville stays balanced on early downs at 51.8% pass, which keeps his volume from disappearing. If this stays a one-score game, he’s the cleanest path to steady yards.
Best prop lean: Jakobi Meyers 60+ receiving yards (+115)
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