JJ Stankevitz: Good observation here, Zachary. For the sake of being completely accurate, the Colts did run three passing plays on first down prior to that Hail Mary. First, they tried to run a play action swing pass to Josh Downs, who went in orbit motion, but Seahawks safety Coby Bryant flew downhill and blew up the play, leading to Rivers throwing the ball away. The second one was a straight dropback where Rivers slipped and took a sack. The third was a play-action tight end screen to Tyler Warren that was stopped for a loss of one.
Still, the four dropbacks the Colts had on first down is tied for the second-lowest total in any game this season (the New York Jets had three dropbacks on first down in Week 10 against the Cleveland Browns, per Pro Football Focus). The game plan for the Colts was to run the ball and chew clock, and running on first down was important in accomplishing that.
It’s also worth noting the Colts, in the first half of Week 15, had a positive EPA per rush on first down (+.044). Seattle did some things different, but a factor here too is the Colts being without left tackle Bernhard Raimann, who exited the game just after the two-minute warning of the first half with an elbow injury. In the second half, that first down EPA per rush dropped to -.370. That can’t be explained only by Raimann’s absence or the Seahawks doing more to key on the run; it probably was a combination of factors there.
Either way, I wouldn’t expect the Colts to be as predictable on first down going forward. Playing the Seahawks at Lumen Field in any year is a tall task; this year’s Seahawks have one of the NFL’s best defenses, which led to a grind-it-out strategy from head coach Shane Steichen. Moving forward, you might see more passes on first down – and maybe even Rivers being a bit more aggressive, too. We’ll see.