ANALYSIS VIDEO: Packers collapse in overtime loss to the Chicago Bears
Ryan Wood and Dominique Yates share instant analysis from the Green Bay Packers’ overtime loss to the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field.
The Detroit Lions are going to need some help to make the NFL playoffs.
When the Chicago Bears rallied to beat the Green Bay Packers in overtime on Saturday, Dec. 20, it closed the path for the Lions to make the postseason simply by winning their final three games.
Now, Lions playoff chances rely on one or more losses by the Bears, Packers or San Francisco 49ers to get in the playoffs, though they still have an outside chance of winning the NFC North.
Here are the scenarios still in play for the Lions and the other NFC wild-card contenders to make the postseason. The Seattle Seahawks (12-3) and Los Angeles Rams (11-4) already have clinched playoff spots, the Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) won the NFC East and one of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Carolina Panthers − both 7-7 − will win the NFC South.
The Lions host the Pittsburgh Steelers at 4:25 p.m. today. (Playoff odds from NFL Next Gen Stats, which have been changing slightly all day.)
49ers playoff path
Record: 10-4.
Playoff odds: 98%.
Schedule: at Colts, vs. Bears, vs. Seahawks.
The 49ers need one win in their final three games at the Indianapolis Colts today and home against the Bears and Seahawks to close the regular season to make the playoffs. The 49ers hold all tiebreakers with the Lions based on conference record, so the Lions would need the 49ers to lose out to pass them for the final wild-card spot.
The 49ers can clinch a playoff spot today with a win at the Colts, a Lions loss, or if both teams tie. And they still can win the NFC West and get the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs by winning their final three games, including in Week 18 at home against Seattle.
Bears playoff path
Record: 11-4.
Playoff odds: 94%.
Schedule: at 49ers, vs. Lions.
Coach Ben Johnson’s team made a miraculous comeback Saturday and has won seven of its past eight games, but the Bears likely still need to beat the 49ers next week or the Lions in Week 18 to make the postseason. (They also would lock up a wild-card spot with a Packers loss.)
If the Lions win their remaining three games and the Bears finish 11-6, the Lions would pass the Bears in the standings on the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Bears can clinch a playoff spot with a Lions loss today against Pittsburgh, and the Bears can clinch the NFC North with a win next week. The Athletic’s simulator gives Chicago an 84% chance to win the division.
Packers playoff path
Record: 9-5-1.
Playoff odds: 79%.
Schedule: vs. Ravens, at Vikings.
The Packers are currently in possession of the NFC’s final wild-card spot and need to win at least one and maybe both of their final two games against the Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings to get in the playoffs.
The Packers hold all tiebreakers with the Lions based on their sweep of the season series, though that likely won’t come into play because of Green Bay’s tie.
The only way the Lions get in ahead of the Packers is with a better record. If both the Lions and Packers win out and the Bears lose out, Green Bay wins the division at 11-5-1 over the 11-6 Lions and 11-6 Bears. The Athletic’s simulator gives Green Bay an 8% chance to win the division.
Packers quarterback Jordan Love left the Bears game with a brain injury, so his status will be one to watch this week. Backup Malik Willis played well in his place. The Packers and Ravens play next Saturday, Dec. 27, so Love will not benefit from an extra day off.
Lions playoff path
Record: 8-6.
Playoff odds: 28%.
Schedule: vs. Steelers, at Vikings, at Bears.
If the Lions win out, they’ll make the playoffs only if one of these three things happen: The Bears also lose next week at San Francisco; the Packers lose at least one of their final two games; or the 49ers lose out.
If the Lions go 2-1 down the stretch, their only path to the postseason is if the Packers also lose their final two games.
The Lions cannot make the playoffs if they go 1-2 in their final three games, and a loss to the Steelers today would put them in peril of being eliminated next week.
They Lions can win the NFC North and get a home playoff game at Ford Field (likely as the No. 3 seed), if they win out, if the Bears lose to the 49ers and the Packers lose at least once in the next two weeks. The Athletic’s simulator gives that an 8% chance of happening.
Dave Birkett covers the Lions for the Detroit Free Press. Contact him at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Bluesky, X and Instagram at @davebirkett.