The Pittsburgh Steelers didn’t clinch a playoff spot with Sunday’s win over the Detroit Lions, but the rest of Week 16 broke almost perfectly in their favor. Thanks in part to the New England Patriots’ win over the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh’s path to the 2025 playoffs is now clearly defined.

Steelers’ Clinch Scenarios – Week 17:

– Ravens Loss/Tie
– Steelers Win/Tie

The first opportunity for the Steelers to clinch will actually come a day before their next game, when the Ravens play the Green Bay Packers on the road. If the Ravens lose or tie, they won’t be able to catch up to the Steelers in win-loss percentage and Pittsburgh will clinch the AFC North on Saturday night. That would set up two relatively meaningless games for the Steelers in Weeks 17 and 18.

Regardless of the results of Saturday night, the Steelers can clinch with a win or tie against the Cleveland Browns. Again, they would be two games ahead of the Ravens with just one head-to-head matchup remaining in Week 18.

The only way for Week 18 to matter is if the Ravens beat the Packers while the Steelers lose to the Browns. That would give the Ravens an opportunity to win the AFC North against the Steelers at Acrisure Stadium in the final week of the regular season.

According to the NFL’s tiebreaking procedures, two teams in the same division go by head-to-head record followed by division record. In this scenario, they would both be 1-1 head to head, but the Steelers would be 3-3 in the division while the Ravens would be 4-2. A Week 18 tie would result in the Steelers getting in.

Wild Card scenarios are now impossible because they would require the Steelers to lose the next two games (to not win the AFC North). In that scenario, the 10-5 Houston Texans would already have more wins than the 9-8 Steelers.

As far as playoff positioning goes, the Steelers could either be the No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the AFC. The most likely outcome is No. 4 because the Jacksonville Jaguars are 11-4. The Steelers could be the No. 3 seed if they win their final two games and the Jaguars lose their final two against the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans. Both teams would be 11-6 and the Steelers would edge them out by way of conference record. It’s very unlikely to happen, but still possible.

To put a number to it, the Steelers currently have a 91-percent chance of making the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator.