Hours before the Los Angeles Rams lost to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 16, ESPN dropped its end-of-season predictions for the remaining three weeks of the NFL regular season. ESPN’s Seth Walder used the company’s Football Power Index to simulate the season 10,000 times and determine how the end of the year could unfold.
Funny enough, the model is 1-for-1 in Week 16, as it accurately predicted a Seahawks win over the Rams. The score was off (it predicted a 27-25 win for Seattle), but it did sense the game would be close.
But at the end of this prediction, ESPN still had the Rams taking the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
How? The model predicted the Seahawks would lose to the Carolina Panthers in Week 17 and the San Francisco 49ers would lose to the Chicago Bears, while the Rams would beat the Atlanta Falcons. And then in Week 18, the Rams took down the Arizona Cardinals and the Bears lost to the Detroit Lions, which gave L.A. the top seed in the NFC, as well as the NFC West crown, with an 13-4 record.
This is how the model predicted the playoffs would go down: The Rams easily beat the Green Bay Packers, 27-13, before dispatching the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC title game. L.A. would then face off with the New England Patriots in a rematch of Super Bowl LIII with a much different result:
Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua put together a career-defining performance to win Super Bowl MVP, catching eight passes for 143 yards and two touchdowns. Los Angeles held a 30-24 lead over New England in the final minutes, giving Maye time for one last drive. But it wasn’t meant to be, as a fourth-down sack by edge rusher Jared Verse ended the drive short of the end zone. Coach Sean McVay and the Rams were champions once again.
Could this scenario unfold? Considering how Week 16 went — absolutely. But, more than anything, it sheds light on the not-so-dire situation the Rams find themselves in after relinquishing control over their playoff destiny.
This prediction is a reminder of how quickly things can change in the NFL.