The Las Vegas Raiders could be the only team standing between the New York Giants and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Conveniently, the Giants will be in Las Vegas to play the Raiders on Sunday.
Both teams are 2-13 and have nine-game losing streaks. The Giants currently have the No. 1 pick with the Raiders at No. 2. That is because the Giants’ strength of schedule (.530) is slightly worse than Las Vegas’s .540.
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The Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans and Arizona Cardinals all have three wins with two weeks left in the season.
The Athletic’s simulator gives Las Vegas a 34% chance of earning the first pick in the draft, with the Giants at 33%. A virtual tie. The Browns are given a 22% chance.
ESPN Analytics shows the Raiders with a 37.3% chance of “earning” the No. 1 pick, the Giants with a 36.1% chance, and the Browns a 24.4% chance.
So, the Giants and Raiders control their own destiny. If one of them loses out they will automatically have the No. 1 pick. The Giants finish the season with a home game against the Dallas Cowboys. The Raiders finish by hosting the Kansas City Chiefs.
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The good news right now for fans who want to see the Giants lose out and get the No. 1 pick is that FanDuel Sportsbook lists the Raiders as 1.5-point favorites over New York.
Updated NFL Draft order
New York Giants (2-13, .530 opponents’ winning percentage)
Las Vegas Raiders (2-13, .540 opponents’ winning percentage)
Washington Commanders (4-11)
New Orleans Saints (5-10)
Cincinnati Bengals (5-10)