Early in the season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were dealing with many injuries but winning in spite of it. It made logical sense to think that when they got healthy, they could be one of the NFL’s most dangerous teams.
The Buccaneers did get healthier. And they can’t win a game anymore.
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The Buccaneers’ season has been strange. They were 6-2 going into their bye week, winning while Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, Bucky Irving and Tristan Wirfs missed games. The only losses were against the Lions and Eagles, which at the time weren’t bad losses. There were many very close wins, and that luck was going to eventually going to run dry. But that should have been mitigated by getting key players back. In theory, anyway.
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The Bucs are 1-6 since the bye. That’s despite the return of every player listed above. Tampa Bay has gone from a stranglehold on the NFC South to a game behind the Carolina Panthers with two games to go.
Baker Mayfield’s severe drop is baffling. Mayfield had a 99.2 passer rating, with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions, in Tampa Bay’s first nine games. Over the last six games he has seven touchdowns and six interceptions with a 72.6 passer rating. We know Mayfield is playing despite suffering a sprained AC joint in his left non-throwing shoulder, and perhaps he’s dealing with other undisclosed injuries that would explain the significant and sudden drop in his play. The Buccaneers had a chance to at least tie the Panthers late in Sunday’s game, but Mayfield threw an interception right to Panthers safety Lathan Ransom with no Buccaneers receiver around. Mayfield said it was a miscommunication with Evans. Ultimately, all that mattered was it was a big mistake in a huge game.
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The Buccaneers’ defense hasn’t been very good all season (bottom 10 in points and yards allowed), the running game has been inconsistent and the special teams have been mediocre too. But the most stark difference in the Buccaneers’ hot start and their steep decline has been Mayfield’s play.
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers have had a pair of three-game losing streaks since the start of November. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)
(Jared C. Tilton via Getty Images)
The Buccaneers aren’t finished. If they beat the Dolphins in Week 17 and the Panthers in Week 18, they will win the NFC South. But if they don’t win the division, a lot of questions will be asked moving forward.
The first one will be if coach Todd Bowles should return. It was inevitable, after losing offensive coordinators Dave Canales and Liam Coen to head coaching jobs, that the Buccaneers wouldn’t hire an offensive coordinator that was instantly among the NFL’s best. Josh Grizzard, this season’s offensive coordinator who was promoted after Coen left, has come under fire. But if Bowles needs a great offensive coordinator to succeed, maybe ownership would question if he’s the right head coach.
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The more complicated question might be with Mayfield. He was much better in his first two Tampa Bay seasons. It’s hard to imagine the Buccaneers moving on, but Mayfield will be 31 years old next season and his cap number goes from almost $26.5 million this season to just under $52 million next year.
All of the questions probably get pushed to the side if the Buccaneers win out and make the playoffs. But it’s becoming harder to believe Tampa Bay can win two in a row.
Panic meter: It’s going to be a long offseason if the Buccaneers don’t figure things out fast
Did the Broncos get exposed?
There’s generally no room for patience or long memories in NFL analysis. All that matters is what just happened. The league is treated like everyone is playing 17 one-week seasons.
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But critics have been skeptical of the Broncos for weeks, so their Week 16 loss was some confirmation bias on top of recency bias.
The Broncos lost 34-20 to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. It wasn’t pretty but it happens, especially this NFL season in which no team has separated itself. The Broncos had won 11 straight before that. It was the first time the Broncos were soundly beaten; their first two losses came on field goals with no time left on the clock. Denver is still a very good team. We just found out Sunday they’re beatable, like everyone else.
Panic meter: Let’s not forget the Broncos are tied for the best record in the NFL
Is the Lions’ dream dead?
The Detroit Lions need a near-miracle to make the playoffs this season after falling to 8-7 with a loss to the Steelers. So this season is practically done. A rebound next season isn’t guaranteed.
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The Lions have ended up missing coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, and they’ll have to make decisions about what to do at those spots next offseason. A lot of the Lions’ big contracts will start to affect their cap soon too, and 2023 draftees like running back Jahmyr Gibbs, linebacker Jack Campbell, tight end Sam LaPorta and safety Brian Branch. are eligible for huge extensions next offseason. That will make the cap challenges, and trying to add any talent via free agency, even tougher.
The Lions still have plenty of talent. But with every year that passes, making the first Super Bowl in franchise history becomes tougher.
Panic meter: There should be some worry that the Lions’ best chance at a Super Bowl has already come and gone
Jaxson Dart struggles badly
In the first half on Sunday, Dart had a passer rating of 0.0. That’s hard to do.
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The Minnesota Vikings made the New York Giants’ rookie quarterback look bad. He ended up with just 33 yards passing and a 27.4 passer rating in a 16-13 loss. It was by far his worst game of the season.
It’s fine to give Dart a pass. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores runs a complex scheme and Dart isn’t the first quarterback to get overwhelmed by it. If Dart has two more terrible games, there could be a discussion over what happens if the Giants get the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft and whether taking a quarterback is on the table. But that’s a long way off, even after Sunday’s debacle.
Panic meter: Dart has been good as a rookie, and one game doesn’t erase that