With Week 16 in the books, a bit more clarity has been brought to the 2026 NFL Playoff picture. The bracket is far from set, however, even with 14 teams officially eliminated from contention with two games left to play.

There’s still a surprising amount left for the majority of the league’s teams to play for going into Week 17. Coveted first-round byes and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs is still a possibility for 11 teams across both conferences

Although the San Francisco 49ers’ resounding victory over the Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football did boost the Niners’ chances of capturing the NFC’s top seed and put Indy’s postseason hopes on life support, the outcome did little to crystallize the playoff picture.

San Francisco (11-4) had already clinched a postseason berth going into the contest, but did keep its hopes of surpassing the surging Seattle Seahawks (12-3) alive with the 48-27 win. The 49ers now control their own destiny, as winning out—which includes beating Seattle in the regular season finale—would result in both an NFC West crown and No. 1 seeding.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the teams that have at least a somewhat realistic—defined as 10 percent or better chances via ESPN’s Football Power Index—to nab the top seed in each conference and predict which of them will ultimately earn it.

Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4)

Remaining Opponents: @IND, vs. TEN

No. 1 Seed Odds: 13.6 Percent

The Jaguars have been one of the pleasant surprises of the 2025 season. The team shook off a rough patch in the middle of the season—going 1-3 between Weeks 6-10—and is riding a six-game winning streak into Week 17.

The team proved it can hang with the best in the AFC with a blowout victory over the Denver Broncos this past weekend, but don’t expect the Jags to start the postseason from the No. 1 seed position.

Jacksonville not only has to win out—a doable goal given the reeling Colts and downtrodden Tennessee Titans represent the final two matchups—but would also need both the New England Patriots and Broncos to lose at least one game apiece down the stretch.

Remaining Opponents: @KC, vs. LAC

No. 1 Seed Odds: 35.9 Percent

With the Broncos dropping a game to the Jaguars in Week 16, their odds of earning the AFC’s top seed took a notable hit.

Denver does control its own destiny in both the division and at the top of the AFC, but must win out to do so. That’s far easier said than done, even with a Kansas City Chiefs squad missing Patrick Mahomes representing the team’s next opponent.

The Los Angeles Chargers will be awaiting in the finale, a team that has had the Broncos number lately. The Bolts bested Denver back in September and will be looking to cap off a sweep for the second consecutive year.

Given that tough matchup, it’s far from guaranteed the Broncos will take home the top seed, let alone claim the AFC West crown—which would go to the Chargers if they manage to win out.

New England Patriots (12-3)

Remaining Opponents: @NYJ, vs. MIA

No. 1 Seed Odds: 40.5 Percent

While much has been made of New England’s historically weak schedule—the 10th-easiest since the merger—the Pats have played the teams in front of them and bested nearly every challenger.

New England survived one of its toughest tests yet in Week 16, coming from behind to topple the Baltimore Ravens and keeping the dream of earning the No. 1 seed alive.

While the Pats are currently occupying the No. 2 seed due to Denver’s superior strength of schedule tiebreaker, the team should have little issues capitalizing on a series of beatable foes down the stretch.

With only the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins standing between them and a 14-3 record—which would represent the organization’s best finish since its Super Bowl-winning 2016 campaign—it’s tough to see a scenario in which New England drops a game.

The Patriots already vanquished both foes earlier this year, topping Gang Green by a 27-14 margin in Week 11 and sneaking past the ‘Phins, 33-27, in a Miami-based clash.

Expect New England handle its business, capitalizing on a Broncos stumble in the finale to steal away the top seed.

Remaining Opponents: @SF, vs. DET

No. 1 Seed Odds: 11.9 Percent

The Bears have emerged as a legitimate contender under first-year head coach Ben Johnson. The former Detroit Lions offensive coordinator has proven to be a perfect fit in the Windy City, maximizing the talents of a team that woefully underperformed in recent years.

Chicago has secured multiple statement victories in 2025, including a 24-15 win over the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles and a clutch overtime win against the rival Green Bay Packers this past week to keep the dream for both an NFC North title and the No. 1 seed alive.

While the Bears do have the inside track towards their first divisional crown in 2018, the road to a bye is far tougher. A rough start—Chicago lost back-to-back games to open the year—will likely result in a Wild Card round appearance.

With the Bears needing to not only win out against a tough slate that includes both the 49ers and Detroit Lions (one of the few teams to best Chicago this year), but also get plenty of help, it’s far more reasonable to expect this team to settle for the No. 2 or 3 spot on the bracket.  

San Francisco 49ers (11-4)

Remaining Opponents: vs. CHI, vs. SEA

No. 1 Seed Odds: 32 Percent

It’s rather shocking that the Niners are right in the thick of the hunt for the No. 1 seed considering they went without starting quarterback Brock Purdy for a majority of their 15 games this season.

Mac Jones deserves praise for keeping this program afloat during that extended stretch, but Purdy’s return has coincided with a five-game winning streak that has San Francisco looking like one of the NFL’s top Super Bowl contenders.

Following his latest five-touchdown gem—a performance that head coach Kyle Shanahan described as “close to a perfect game“—against Indianapolis, the Niners now have a real shot winning both their division and top seed in the NFC.

As good as the 49ers have been with Purdy at the reins, they haven’t been unbeatable. The team dropped a game to a quality opponent in the Jaguars with him starting back in Week 4 and could lose again with a pair of playoff-bound foes in the Bears and Seahawks still to play.

Remaining Opponents: @ATL, vs. ARI

No. 1 Seed Odds: 14.8 Percent

The Rams’ decision to run it back at least one more time with Matt Stafford proved to be the right one. After giving the Eagles their only tough test during their march to a Lombardi Trophy last year, L.A. had every reason to believe this team could bookend the Stafford era with titles.

While L.A. was red-hot for much of the season, an inexplicable Week 13 defeat to the Carolina Panthers and a narrow overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks this past week has put a damper on its chances to open the playoffs with a bye.

Working in the Rams’ favor is a paper-soft schedule that has two teams with nothing left to play for on the docket. Los Angeles will be a heavy favorite against both the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals, making a 13-4 finish quite likely for this squad.

Unfortunately that probably won’t be enough this season, especially with the surging Seahawks in control of their destiny and looking to cap off their immensely successful season with a pair of clutch wins.

Remaining Opponents: @CAR, @SF

No. 1 Seed Odds: 41.1 Percent

The Seahawks’ bold decision to jettison Geno Smith and forge ahead with free-agent acquisition Sam Darnold is already paying dividends. The franchise has already cinched up its first postseason berth since 2022 and is just a win away from matching the franchise-best totals set by a pair of Super Bowl teams in 2013 and 2005.  

While this squad survived its most difficult challenge yet by vanquishing the rival Rams in overtime in Week 16, the road ahead isn’t exactly easy.

Seattle’s Week 17 opponent, the Panthers have been a plucky squad in 2025. Carolina has notched some big wins, including a massive upset of the Rams in Week 13. This team is now close to achieving its lofty goal of wresting the NFC South crown away from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Even if the Seahawks survive unscathed, a Week 18 battle with the 49ers will likely determine their fate in both the division and conference standings.

Darnold notably shrank from the spotlight in last year’s finale, faring poorly in a pivotal game against the Detroit Lions that squandered the Minnesota Vikings’ No. 1 seed and NFC North aspirations. The veteran will have a chance to avenge that shortcoming—which preceded an early exit in the playoffs—by delivering a huge win for his new employer.

While history isn’t on his side, Darnold has been a revelation for Seattle and now has the backing of a defense that allows the second-fewest points in football. Given the Seahawks have just one loss since Week 6 and are riding a five-game winning streak into Week 17, it wouldn’t be wise to bet against this club claiming the NFC’s top seed.