The ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Tennessee a 67.2% chance to beat Illinois in the Music City Bowl. The Vols opened as a 5.5-point favorite against the Illini, but the line has moved toward Illinois, with Tennessee now favored by 2.5.

Kickoff between Tennessee (8-4) and Illinois (8-4) is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time on December 30 at Nissan Stadium in Nashville.

The Matchup Predictor, based on ESPN’s in-house analytics, went 9-3 picking Tennessee games straight up during the regular season. Here’s a look at what ESPN got wrong and what ESPN got right along the way:

What ESPN’s Matchup Predictor got right

Tennessee 45, Syracuse 26 | Before The Game: Vols 88.6% win

Joey Aguilar threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns in his Tennessee debut and the Vols rushed for 246 yards as a team in the season-opening win. Braylon Staley caught a 73-yard touchdown pass and all three Tennessee running backs — DeSean Bishop, Peyton Lewis and Star Thomas — had one touchdown each. 

Tennessee 72, ETSU 17 | Before The Game: Vols 99.0% win

Tennessee broke modern-day program record for points scored in its 72-17 win, while also setting the program record for first downs (41). Tennessee completed 38 of 52 passes for 458 yards and four touchdowns, with Joey Aguilar, Jake Merklinger and George MacIntyre all seeing action. Seven running backs combined for 259 yards and five rushing touchdowns on the day, while 13 receivers caught passes. 

Tennessee 56, UAB 24 | Before The Game: Vols 98.7% win

Joey Aguilar threw for 218 yards and three touchdowns and the Vols ran for 235 yards and four touchdowns as a team, building a 42-7 lead at halftime then emptying the bench in the second half on the way to the 56-24 win over Trent Dilfer’s UAB Blazers.

Tennessee 41, Miss. State 34 (OT) | Before The Game: Vols 76.8% win

Joey Aguilar scored on a 6-yard run to tie the game with 1:55 left in the fourth quarter, DeSean Bishop ran 25 yards for a touchdown on the first play of overtime and Tennessee’s defense got four straight stops inside the 5-yard line after Mississippi State took possession, sealing a dramatic come-from-behind win in Starkville.

Tennessee 34, Arkansas 31 | Before The Game: Vols 82.6% win

Tennessee trailed 17-10 after the first 20 minutes against Arkansas at Neyland Stadium, responded with 24 straight points to build a 34-17 lead, then had to hold on after the Razorbacks scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to get back within a field goal.

Alabama 37, Tennessee 20 | Before The Game: Alabama 72.4% win

Alabama had a 99-yard Pick 6 on the final play of the first half, using the 14-point swing to lead 23-7 at halftime and change the game for good on the way to a 37-20 win. Joey Aguilar completed 28 of 44 passes for 268 yards, with a touchdown and the interception. DeSean Bishop ran 14 times for 123 yards and two touchdowns and Braylon Staley caught 10 passes for 92 yards and a touchdown.

Tennessee 56, Kentucky 34 | Before The Game: Vols 75.1% win

Joey Aguilar threw for a season-high 396 yards and had three touchdowns and the Vols rushed 33 times for 108 yards and had four touchdowns on the ground. Safety Edrees Farooq scored Tennessee’s fifth defensive touchdown of he season when he tipped at a pass at the line of scrimmage, caught the deflected pass and returned it 45 yards for the score.

Tennessee 42, New Mexico State 9 | Before The Game: Vols 99.0% win

Joey Aguilar had 238 total yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions and Tennessee ran 39 times as a team for 194 yards and four touchdowns in the 42-9 win over New Mexico State. DeSean Bishop ran for 80 yards and a touchdown, Braylon Staley caught five passes for 58 yards and a score and Aguilar ran for a 27-yard touchdown.

Tennessee 31, Florida 11 | Before The Game: Vols 65.0% win

Tennessee jumped out to a 31-0 lead at halftime after scoring touchdowns on each of its first four possessions in Gainesville Saturday night. The Vols matched a program record for margin of victory in a win at Florida after Joey Aguilar threw for 204 yards and a touchdown while Tennessee ran for 248 yards and three touchdowns as a team, winning at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium for the first time since 2003.

What ESPN’s Matchup Predictor got wrong

Georgia 44, Tennessee 41 (OT) | Before The Game: Vols 51.5% win

Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards and accounted for five total touchdowns and Tennessee led Georgia by eight late in the fourth quarter, but the Bulldogs rallied to tie the game with 2:30 left in regulation. Max Gilbert missed a go-ahead 43-yard field goal attempt with seven seconds left and Georgia won in the first overtime.

Oklahoma 33, Tennessee 27 | Before The Game: Vols 63.3% win

Joey Aguilar completed 29 of 45 passes for 393 yards and three touchdowns, but he threw two interceptions and was strip-sacked once, with the fumble returned for a touchdown and the two picks turned into two field goals. The 16 points off the three turnovers was enough for Oklahoma to upset Tennessee 33-27 at Neyland Stadium, effectively ending any College Football Playoff hopes for the Vols.

Vanderbilt 45, Tennessee 24 | Before The Game: Vols 58.6% win

Diego Pavia accounted for 268 yards passing, 168 yards rushing and two total touchdowns to lead Vanderbilt to a 45-24 win in the regular-season finale in Knoxville. The game was tied at 21-21 at halftime but the Commodores took control with a 24-3 scoring advantage in the second half. Vandy finished the season 10-2 but was left out of the College Football Playoff.