The Rams enter Week 17 as Super Bowl favorites. Rightfully so.

They’ve got all the trappings of a No. 1 contender, and although an 11-4 record has them as the NFC’s fifth seed, their losses came by an average of 3.5 points, exclusively against teams currently in the playoff picture.

The second-best team in football? That’s tough. Probably the Seahawks, but do you believe in Sam Darnold? Can the Eagles figure out their offense? What about the Bills’ defense?

Inside: The NFL’s No. 2 contender, Jake Ciely’s 2026 breakout candidates and my wish list for next season. Also, Pro Bowl rosters just released. Let’s roll.

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No. 2 Contender: Why not the Pats?

Sportsbooks tell you the second-best team in football is Seattle (12-3), which BetMGM has just behind the Rams in current Super Bowl odds. The Bills (11-4) and Broncos (12-3) are No. 3 and 4, respectively.

But based on records against playoff teams, the Bears (3-1) and Chargers (3-1) are the league’s best, though the Jaguars (5-3) have the most wins in those games and Josh Allen’s Bills (plus-47) the highest point margin. Seattle is a strong 4-2.

If we go purely on record and strength of schedule, it’s again NFC-leading Seattle, with an identical record but tougher schedule than AFC-leading Denver and New England, each at 12-3.

What about those Patriots? Pro Football Reference lists their 2025 schedule as the second-easiest among playoff-bound teams since 2000, 4.2 points easier than the league average. Here’s how they stack up since 2000.

No Super Bowl winners on that list, but two appearances among their nine peers? Nothing to sniff at. And if we rewind to 1970, the nine other playoff-team schedules easier than these 2025 Patriots produced three Super Bowl winners (1999 Rams, 1970 Colts, 1972 Dolphins), per ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, plus another appearance (1991 Bills).

Let’s not dismiss Drake Maye’s team, especially since the Pats won a Super Bowl the last time they had a schedule among the league’s easiest (2016). 👀

Our Week 17 Power Rankings have the Patriots at No. 3 and Rams at No. 2, just behind … Darnold’s Seahawks. Check out the full rankings here. As for last night’s game …

Purdy spoils vintage Rivers

When a grandfather two weeks removed from retirement passes for 175 yards and two touchdowns in the first half of an NFL game, he earns serious kudos. It was Philip Rivers, like he’d never left.

“He’s unbelievable,” said 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan. “He looks like I remember. The ball always goes to the right spot.”

But as impressive as the 44-year-old was, the Colts defense failed to give him a chance. Christian McCaffrey gashed it repeatedly, finishing with 146 total yards and two touchdowns, while Purdy orchestrated a Niners offense that didn’t punt once. (Rivers also threw a pick-six.)

“It was pretty close to a perfect game,” said Shanahan of his QB, who finished with 295 yards and a career-high five touchdowns. The Niners won 48-27.

The Colts’ fifth straight loss drops them to 8-7, essentially ending their once-promising season, now squarely outside the playoff picture (1 percent playoff odds) for the fifth straight year.
Meanwhile, the 49ers (11-4) have a shot at the NFC’s top seed, with huge matchups against the Bears (11-4) and Seahawks (12-3) over the final two weeks.

Our full takeaways are here. Over to Jake Ciely for 2026 breakout players to watch.

All In with Jake Ciely: Five to watch in 2026

With the fantasy season done next week, here are my five way-too-early breakout picks for 2026:

QB Jaxson Dart, NYG. As with many rookie passers, we’ve seen flashes and mistakes. If the Giants get him a bit more help, then a healthy Malik Nabers and smarter running (slide, man!!) could elevate Dart into the top 10 quarterbacks.

RB Omarion Hampton, LAC. An obvious pick, given the draft capital the Chargers spent and Hampton’s production in limited reps. There is easy RB1 value here.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI. We saw him taking over early this year, but the recent injury situation has stymied his 2025 breakout. Another year with Ben Johnson — for both Odunze and Caleb Williams — can turn 2024’s No. 9 pick into a WR1.

WR Emeka Egbuka, TB. Similar to Odunze, we saw glimpses of Egbuka’s ceiling earlier this year. The returns of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin pushed him into the No. 3 role, but this is possibly Evans’ last season in Tampa Bay. If so, Egbuka can have a second-year breakout, pushing the numbers George Pickens is putting up this year.

TE Tyler Warren, IND. Might feel like a layup, but consider what he was doing in his debut season before all of the issues in Indy. A more complete breakout would have him in the conversation among Trey McBride, Brock Bowers and George Kittle as first-tier tight ends.

My Week 17 Waiver Wire column is here, with pickups for this title-deciding week. If you need a D/ST, my top four are the Broncos (at Chiefs), Lions (at Vikings), Pittsburgh (at Browns) and Patriots (at Jets). Back to you, Jacob.

Back to you, Jacob.

Two wishes for 2026

Christmas Eve is near, so this is my last shot at a wish list. I don’t need more socks. Instead, here’s what I’d like for 2026, as both would make the world better:

Health for elite quarterbacks. Three of the league’s presumed top four quarterbacks missed significant time in 2025: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, now day-to-day with a significant back injury. After the growth we’ve seen from the next generation (Drake Maye, Trevor Lawrence, Bo Nix and a hopefully healthy Jayden Daniels), 2026 could bring even more parity.

New ownership for the Bengals, Jets, Browns, Cardinals and Cowboys. In late 2023, my colleague Mike Sando ranked every NFL owner based on winning percentage. The list wasn’t kind to Jaguars owner Shad Khan, but things have changed since the arrival of coach Liam Coen. Others haven’t been as lucky. If a change in ownership is impossible in Cincinnati, at least give fans shovels.

Extra Points

👋 Chiefs on the move. Taxpayers will fund 60 percent of a new, $3 billion stadium in Kansas, where the Chiefs are set to move from Missouri in 2031. My colleague Jesse Newell shares the details here.

🎙 Podcasting with Kelces. The 31-year-old director of social media for Travis and Jason Kelce’s “New Heights” podcast shares a behind-the-scenes look at an unbelievable job.

📽 Week 16 film. Ted Nguyen explains how Kellen Moore’s quietly helped Tyler Shough develop into a quarterback worth New Orleans’ investment.

🚫 DK Metcalf was suspended for two games after an altercation with a fan. CBS Sports reported that Metcalf’s “conduct detrimental” to the league could void at least $45 million in future guaranteed money. Oof.

▶️ Yesterday’s most-clicked: Sando’s Pick Six column, which reviews the trade deadline.

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