Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss, and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.
Tampa Bay is now 7-8 after three straight losses to New Orleans, Atlanta and Carolina. Despite going 1-6 since the bye week and having a losing record for the first time all season, the Bucs still have a chance to win the NFC South either at 9-8 by beating the Dolphins and Panthers over the next two weeks or even at 8-9 if both Tampa Bay and Carolina lose in Week 17 and then the Bucs prevail over the Panthers at home in Week 18. However, if Tampa Bay loses at Miami and Carolina upsets Seattle on Sunday, the Panthers win the division and the Bucs are eliminated from the playoffs.
What’s At Stake For The Bucs?
The Buccaneers arrive in Miami at 7-8 knowing exactly what’s on the line. Losers of six of their last seven games, there’s no margin for error left. But there is still opportunity. A loss to the 6-9 Dolphins coupled with a Panthers win over the Seahawks and the Bucs can officially stop scoreboard-watching and start draft-slot watching. A win combined with a Panthers loss, and the Bucs keep their faint playoff pulse alive with a winner-takes-all showdown against Carolina in Tampa Bay in Week 18.
At stake Sunday isn’t just postseason math. It’s credibility. It’s validation that Todd Bowles’ locker room can still respond to him under the weight of inconsistency, late-game failures, and a schedule has seen winnable games turn into head-scratching losses. The Bucs are fighting to prove that when their backs are up against the wall, they can still deliver a winning a season and another NFC South title.
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: IMAGN – Jim Dedmon
Like recent opponents that the Bucs have lost to – including the Saints and Falcons – the Dolphins have already been eliminated from the playoffs and don’t have anything to play for other than pride. That’s the exact type of opponent Tampa Bay has struggled to put away. Handle business on the road, and the Bucs can prove that they are still tuned into Bowles and capable of salvaging a season that has gone downhill since the bye.
Lose their seventh game out of the last eight and the conversation shifts fast. Questions about Bowles’ future grow louder as this will be either an 8-9 or a 7-10 Tampa Bay team depending on what happens in the Week 18 rematch with Carolina – one filled with immense disappointment in the franchise’s 50th season. Sunday is about survival for the Bucs.
What’s At Stake For The Dolphins?
For the Dolphins, Sunday against the Buccaneers isn’t about playoff positioning. That ship has effectively sailed. It’s about accountability, optics, and whether Mike McDaniel’s program is still pointed in the right direction as the calendar flips toward January evaluations.
At 6-9, Miami is staring at an uncomfortable reality. This season was supposed to be a step forward, not a step sideways. Injuries have mattered, but they’re not a full excuse for a team that’s struggled to beat physical opponents, wilted late in close games and benched its starting quarterback. Lose at home to a 7-8 Tampa Bay team, and the narrative hardens: fast, flashy, but fragile when it counts.
Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel – Photo by: IMAGN – Sam Navarro
What’s at stake is trust – from ownership, from the locker room, and from a fan base that’s tired of style points without substance in McDaniel’s tenure. Tua Tagovailoa’s benching, the defense’s ineptness at times, McDaniel’s late-game management – all of it is under the microscope now. Beating the Bucs won’t erase disappointments, but it would at least signal fight instead of fade.
There’s also professional pride involved. Veterans are playing for contracts. Coaches are coaching for leverage. Young players are auditioning for bigger roles in 2026. Win, and Miami finishes strong with momentum and maybe some answers. Lose, and the offseason questions won’t just be loud – they’ll be unavoidable.
The Bucs Win If…
If the Buccaneers are going to walk out of Miami with a win, it starts with discipline and ends with physicality. Offensively, Tampa Bay has to avoid the untimely penalties that plagued the team in last week’s loss at Carolina. Baker Mayfield must avoide the late-game interceptions that doomed the team in recent losses to the Falcons and Panthers and protect the football against a Dolphins defense that can be opportunistic.
That means quick decisions, defined reads, and leaning into what’s worked for most of the year, which is play to the strength of the roster – the wide receiver position. The Bucs were too committed to the run last week, especially on first down, and didn’t lean on the passing game enough. Mayfield and Co. only scored 20 points in a 23-20 loss as a result. Scoring touchdowns rather than field goals in the red zone is a must.
Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Bob Donnan
Defensively, it’s simple in theory and brutal in execution: attack rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers with some well-timed and successful blitzes. Todd Bowles’ defense can’t allow Ewers to get comfortable in the pocket. He threw two interceptions in his first NFL start last week, which was a loss to Cincinnati, and Tampa Bay must come away with some takeaways on defense.
The Dolphins have speed on offense with wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back De’Von Achane. The Bucs must come to Miami ready to tackle. The Dolphins turns missed tackles into explosives faster than anyone. Achane is capable of having the type of day that Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs and New England’s TreVeyon Henderson had against Tampa Bay if the Bucs don’t stay in their gaps and wrap up when they have the opportunity.
The Dolphins Win If…
If the Dolphins are going to defend home turf against the Buccaneers, the formula is clear, but far from easy. Offensively, Miami has to avoid turnovers from rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers and get him in rhythm early. That means quick throws to tight end Darren Waller and running back De’Von Achane out of the backfield that forces the Bucs’ linebackers to tackle in space – something that’s been hit-or-miss all year.
Having Achane excel in the running game matters, too. Not because Miami needs 150 yards on the ground, but because Tampa Bay’s defense will want to blitz Ewers, especially in third-and-long situations. Staying balanced, staying ahead of the chains, and avoid third-and-long against Todd Bowles’ pressure packages is the key to victory on offense.
Dolphins ILB Jordyn Brooks and Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Bob Reeger
Defensively, Miami needs to win first down and rattle Baker Mayfield early with pressure, especially in his face by attacking backup guards Dan Feeney and Mike Jordan. The strength of the Dolphins defense is linebackers Jordyn Brooks and Tyrel Dobson, and both must play well against the run and the pass.
Slowing down Tampa Bay’s star-studded wide receiver room will be a challenge, but picking off Mayfield early could force him into a bad and start second-guessing some of his throws to Mike Evans and Co. The Bucs aren’t talented enough to overcome losing the turnover battle and still finding a way to win. Getting a few takeaways on defense could seal the victory for Miami.
Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense
Bucs Running Backs vs. Dolphins Linebackers
Tampa Bay’s inside linebackers are one of the biggest weaknesses on the team. Conversely, Miami’s duo of Jordyn Brooks and Tyrel Dobson represent the strength of the Dolphins. The Bucs have to be jealous of how Brooks and Dobson are savvy, do-it-all linebackers, capable of playing well against the pass and the run. Brooks the star, compiling 169 tackles (93 solo), 12 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks with a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. Dobson is a tremendous sidekick, with 116 tackles (68 solo), nine tackles for loss, four sacks, one interception, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery.
Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: IMAGN Image – Bob Donnan
The Bucs have shown a commitment to the run this year – and last week was perhaps an over-commitment to the run in Carolina. That means offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard will be dialing up at least 25 runs with Bucky Irving leading the way. Irving has displayed make-you-miss qualities as a runner in his two years in Tampa Bay, but just isn’t the same back he was last year when he averaged 5.4 yards per carry. This year he’s averaging 3.7 yards per carry over the last four games since returning from injury, and it’s been Rachaad White who has averaged 6.6 yards instead. Yet White has only had six carries over the past two weeks.
Whoever is carrying the ball for the Bucs needs to break tackles and make Brooks and Dobson miss to set up more manageable third downs. The Bucs ran the ball too often on first down last week and were in too many third-and-long situations when they didn’t have success on the early downs. If Brooks and Dobson have double-digit tackle performances on Sunday it could make for a long day for Tampa Bay’s offense in Miami.
Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense
Bucs Defense vs. Dolphins RB De’Von Achane
Tampa Bay did a good job containing Carolina’s duo of Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard last week, but neither had the breakaway speed that Miami’s De’Von Achane possesses. Achane ran a 4.32 coming out of Texas A&M a few years ago, and that speed is on display on a weekly basis, as he’s the focal point of the Dolphins’ offensive attack. Achane leads Miami with 1,267 yards and eight touchdowns on 220 carries. His 5.8-yard rushing average is a product of his explosive. At 5-foot-9, 191 pounds he’s not the biggest back, but if the Bucs defenders don’t wrap him up, Achane can take any carry the distance.
Dolphins RB De’Von Achane – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Sam Navarro
Not only is Achane a weapon on the ground, he’s also dangerous as a receiver. With 64 catches, he’s tied with Jaylen Waddle for the team lead, and Achane has amassed 459 yards through the air and scored an additional four touchdowns on swing passes, screens and wheel routes. Tampa Bay’s linebackers have struggled in space covering running backs out of the backfield, and Achane presents a huge challenge in that area.
Although it’s not just the Bucs linebackers who are on high alert. As we’ve seen with long touchdown runs by speedy running backs like Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs and New England’s TreVeyon Henderson, one Tampa Bay defender being out of a gap or missing a tackle can lead to a quick score. Stopping Achane before he starts – at the line of scrimmage or in the backfield – is a must for Todd Bowles’ defense.