Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction, pick, where to watch, live stream, kickoff time

The NFL’s Christmas Day tripleheader wraps up at Arrowhead Stadium, where the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos. When this holiday matchup was announced, many eyed it as potentially one of the top games of the entire season, let alone in Week 17, with both Denver and K.C. poised for a postseason run. Now that we’ve arrived, however, the game has lost some of its luster.

On the Broncos side of things, they have lived up to expectations and even exceeded them. Entering this matchup, Denver sits as the No. 1 seed in the AFC and will secure the top spot in the conference — along with the first-round bye and home-field advantage that come with it — if it simply wins out over the final two weeks. From where they stand, this is a tremendously meaningful matchup.

As for the Chiefs, things have gone off the rails. Kansas City is already eliminated from playoff contention and has since fallen into quarterback turmoil. In the final moments of its Week 15 loss to the Chargers — which officially eliminated the Chiefs from the playoffs — Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL that ended his season. Then, top backup Gardner Minshew, who started in place of Mahomes last week, suffered a season-ending knee injury as well. That now thrusts third-stringer Chris Oladokun in as K.C.’s starter for this matchup.

Before we dive further into this matchup, let’s make sure you have all the information you need to check out this Christmas Day showdown. 

Where to watch Broncos vs. Chiefs liveDate: Thursday, Dec. 25 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ETLocation: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)Stream: Prime VideoOdds: Broncos -13.5, O/U 36.5 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)Key questionsWill Denver’s defense bounce back?

The Broncos have arguably the best defense in the NFL, but they did not look like it last week. Denver had its 11-game winning streak snapped in Week 16 after allowing the Jaguars to score 34 points at Mile High. That marked the most points the unit has allowed in a game this season. 

Is that simply a bad day at the office or a sign of regression? Even with that poor showing last week, the Broncos are still top five in the NFL in points per game allowed (19.7), yards per game allowed (291.6), third-down percentage (33.5%) and red zone touchdown percentage (43.5%).

If they can bounce back against what should be a softer adversary in this depleted Chiefs offense, it will allow folks who envisioned Denver making a deep run to exhale slightly. If Chris Oladokun has success against them, however, it could warrant serious concern about their prospects of going all the way.

Can Travis Kelce put together a vintage performance?

It has been an up-and-down season for the 36-year-old tight end. At times, he has turned back the clock and looked like the Hall of Fame talent who has been at the center of Kansas City’s offense for more than a decade. At other times, it has been fair to wonder if he is even on the field. For instance, Kelce has logged just one catch in two of his last three games, including last week’s loss to Tennessee. 

If Oladokun is going to have any shot at success, he will need to lean on Kelce, and the veteran will need to deliver a vintage performance. It is worth noting the Broncos are allowing the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season, so it may not be out of the realm of possibility.

Can K.C. keep RJ Harvey out of the end zone?

One of the more underrated pieces of Denver’s success of late has been the emergence of rookie running back RJ Harvey. Specifically, the UCF product has shown a nose for the end zone, scoring five rushing touchdowns over his last four games. Kansas City is tied for the third-fewest rushing touchdowns (eight) allowed to running backs this season.

X factor

We’re going to get a lot of people asking who exactly Chris Oladokun is as he gears up to start for the Chiefs in this one. The 28-year-old entered the NFL as a seventh-round draft pick by the Steelers in 2022 out of South Dakota State but was released during final roster cuts that summer. 

After his release from Pittsburgh, he signed with the Chiefs’ practice squad and has been with the organization ever since. From a familiarity standpoint, Oladokun should be quite comfortable in Andy Reid’s offense, as he has worked in it for almost four seasons.

When he came in to relieve the injured Gardner Minshew on Sunday, it marked Oladokun’s first significant snaps in the NFL, but it was not his debut. Ironically enough, he made his debut against the Broncos in Denver in Week 18 last season, playing five offensive snaps. Oladokun did not attempt a pass in that game, however, and rushed once for five yards.

Given that Oladokun has been a career practice squad player and is now tasked with taking on a lethal Broncos defense, this game has a chance to go sideways in a hurry if he falters early. His performance will dictate whether this is an entertaining matchup or one that is over by halftime.

Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction, pick

This has the makings of a true blowout. On one side, Denver is still looking to secure the No. 1 seed and has a defense likely chomping at the bit to get back on the field for a bounce-back performance after allowing a season-high 34 points. On the other hand, the Chiefs are down to their third-string quarterback, who will be making his first career start, and the team is already eliminated from playoff contention. If the Broncos deliver a couple of early blows, K.C. might not get up.
Pick: Broncos 27, Chiefs 10 | Broncos -13.5, over 36.5