The College Football Playoff quarterfinal round will feature a marquee matchup in the Cotton Bowl. The Ohio State Buckeyes and Miami Hurricanes meet with a spot in the national semifinals on the line.

After a hard-fought first-round win over Texas A&M, Miami advanced to face Ohio State in what shapes up as one of the more intriguing games of the CFP slate. The Buckeyes enter the matchup rested and favored. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes arrive with momentum after surviving a defensive slugfest.

On the latest episode of the Andy & Ari On3 podcast, Ari Wasserman explained why he’s backing Ohio State to handle business. Even if he’s acknowledging a path for Miami to make things uncomfortable.

“I’m not overthinking this. I’ve overthought all year. I think that there’s a wormhole out there where Miami wins. Like, I really do. I think that’s a tough matchup, and Ohio State probably would rather play a few other teams in the second round than the one that they got,” Wasserman said. “I’m not going to overcorrect my opinion of Ohio State’s team as a result of the Indiana game and the Big Ten Championship. I think that there are, for lack of a better word, excuses that you could make for why they didn’t perform at their highest level in that game.”

Wasserman pointed to several factors that he believes will benefit Ohio State with extra time to prepare. Despite losing an assistant coach to a new job, Wasserman is confident in the Buckeyes’ offense.

“Brian Hartline left. It was a week after beating Michigan. Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate were not fully healthy. I think people forget that,” Wasserman added. “They have a whole month to prepare, basically, or three weeks to prepare for this game. I think that they’re going to be in pretty peak condition, like blood on fangs mode. I think winning by 10 shouldn’t be too much for them.”

In the end, Wasserman ultimately projected a comfortable Buckeyes win. He predicted something in the range of “a 31-20-ish-type game” or “a 31-14-type game” where Ohio State is victorious. 

Andy Staples’ pick for Ohio State vs. Miami

However, Andy Staples sees a scenario where Miami keeps things close. Even if the Hurricanes don’t ultimately pull off the upset.

“If you’re looking for a wormhole where Miami wins, I don’t need Miami to win if I pick Miami. I need Miami to not lose by double digits,” Staples responded. “And I think that’s possible. I think with the level of talent that Miami has, and the level of elite talent that Miami has, they can hang in this game and they can make it very interesting.”

Staples added that Miami would likely need a standout performance at quarterback to seriously threaten Ohio State: “I don’t know if they have enough to win it. I think they would need to get Carson Beck’s best game for that to happen. But I do think they can keep it within single digits,” Staples said. “I feel like I’m on Shark Tank. For that reason, I’m going to take Miami to cover the 10.”

According to BetMGM, Ohio State opened as a 9.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 42.5 points. The Cotton Bowl will mark the fifth all-time meeting between the programs, with the series tied 2–2. Miami won the most recent matchup in the 2011 regular season, 24–6, while Ohio State claimed a 31–24 victory in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl.

Miami entered the CFP as the final at-large team after a 10–2 regular season. In the first round, the Hurricanes leaned on their defense and running game, defeating Texas A&M 10–3 behind 172 rushing yards from Mark Fletcher Jr.

Ohio State, meanwhile, is coming off a bye after earning the No. 2 seed in the College Football Playoff. The defending national champions went undefeated in the regular season before suffering their lone loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game.

With contrasting styles and a semifinal berth at stake, the Cotton Bowl figures to be one of the most closely watched games of the College Football Playoff quarterfinal round. Time will tell if Wasserman or Staples is right, or if Miami can pull off the upset.

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