Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for the Christmas Day matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders on Thursday in NFL Week 17.

It’s not just sleigh bells and a crackling fireplace you hear… that’s the NFL theme playing in the distance. Happy holidays to all and merry Christmas to anyone celebrating with some football. While the opening contest of the three-game slate doesn’t have playoff implications, there’s still the angle of an NFC East rivalry between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders. This outing sees plenty of betting value, so settle in with your eggnog and get ready for the action.

Read on for a Cowboys vs. Commanders prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Week 17 contest on Christmas Day.

Cowboys vs. Commanders prediction, preview

These NFC East foes are both floundering in comparison to preseason expectations, but for somewhat different reasons.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys entered the year with hopes of a playoff push in what was supposed to be a somewhat tough division. While the offseason acquisitions of George Pickens and Javonte Williams helped turn this offense into one of the NFL’s most elite, the defense has consistently let their counterparts down on a near-weekly basis. Dak Prescott has quarterbacked this offense to 28.3 points (fifth-most) and 393.1 yards per game (second-most), scoring 3.0 touchdowns per game. The Cowboys can run the ball fairly well with a league-average rushing attack which could truly pop against one of the league’s worst run defenses in a potential positive game script. The passing attack should dominate though, averaging an NFL-best 274.3 passing yards per game with top-eight marks in completion percentage and yards per pass. With weapons like Pickens and CeeDee Lamb along with Jake Ferguson running up the seam, it’s not tough to see what makes the unit’s aerial assaults such a threat.

The defense absolutely struggles though, and the addition of Quinnen Williams in the interior trenches hasn’t served as the end-all, be-all fix the front office hoped for. Dallas still allows 30.3 points (second-most) and 380.1 yards per game (third-most), giving up the second-worst third-down conversion rate to opponents as well. The run defense has improved somewhat since the trade deadline but the secondary remains a major issue with a league-worst 257.8 passing yards per game allowed — that won’t improve with star cornerback Daron Bland (foot) on season-ending IR. The Cowboys also fall 25th in sack percentage and 28th in takeways per game with just 0.7, so there aren’t splash plays to make up for the group’s shortcomings. All in all, it amounts to an underwhelming 6-8-1 record on the year.

Washington Commanders

While the Cowboys’ season has come as a result of an abysmal defense, the Commanders suffer from the same issue but have also been through a campaign marred by injuries. After last year’s playoff win over the Detroit Lions, the sky felt like the limit before it came crashing down due to some poor roster management over the offseason. The in-again, out-again nature of Jayden Daniels’ season prior to being shut down for the year due to injury ultimately doomed this group. Washington’s offense averages 20.6 points (24th) and 321.1 yards per game (20th) but converts third downs at the 25th-best rate. The Commanders will be led by career backup Josh Johnson at quarterback after QB2 Marcus Mariota (hand/quad) was ruled out earlier in the week as well, hurting the outlook significantly. The hope is that wideouts Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel can make magic happen against a weak secondary, or that the run game can grind things out with the backfield duo of Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jacory Croskey-Merritt. That may be easier said than done with weak quarterback play, though.

Defensively, the Commanders are just about as bad as their opponents. Washington allows 26.9 points (27th) and 382.7 yards per game (31st), also allowing the third-highest opponent red-zone scoring percentage. The group doesn’t fare well against the run while allowing 141.0 yards on the ground per game, but the secondary also looks weak with 241.7 passing yards allowed on average, too. Both of those marks are 25th or worse in the league, and while the Commanders are 16th in sack percentage, they fall 31st in takeaways per game with only 0.6.

Cowboys vs. Commanders pick, best bet

On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Cowboys are -8.5 favorites on the road with -485 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Commanders are listed at +370 to win outright with a game total of 50.5 points. As far as betting splits go, 83% of straight bets favor Dallas while 71% are on the visitors to cover. On the total, 58% of the wagers favor the over.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before — two of the NFL’s worst defenses walk into a bar. If Mariota were playing on Christmas Day, then this would be a prime spot to take the over and sit back for the offensive fireworks. Johnson hasn’t started a game since 2021 though and remains the ultimate wild card against this soft Dallas secondary. Can he make simple throws and count on his wideouts to create after the catch? Maybe, but it’s tough to see this Washington offense coasting to multiple touchdowns and keeping up with the visitors’ scoring pace.

Instead of targeting the over on the game total, look toward the Cowboys’ team total instead. The matchup is just about the best bettors could possibly ask for and Prescott has been on a heater this season with what could have been an MVP-caliber campaign if he had even a halfway competent defense behind him to keep the W/L record in check. Lamb and Pickens should pick on this weak defense as Dallas pulls out in the lead early by multiple touchdowns. The Commanders are tied for last in defensive EPA/pass (with the Cowboys, actually) and sit fifth-worst in defensive EPA/rush as well. Prescott and his weapons should roll to at least 30 points to hit the alt team total of over 29.5 points, and an alt spread of -9.5 also brings slightly better value for those who think the Washington attack falters on Christmas Day.

Best bet: DAL Cowboys over 29.5 points (-135)