Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for the Christmas Day matchup between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 17.
Happy holidays to all and merry Christmas to anyone celebrating with some football. After the first two games of NFL Week 17 conclude, we’ve got an AFC West battle between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs. While this matchup would’ve been far more fun with a healthy Patrick Mahomes on the field, the league’s schedule stops for no man. Get your betting cards ready with a side of hot cocoa and/or eggnog because it’s time to wind down the festivities with one more game, this time a special holiday edition of Thursday Night Football.
Read on for a Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Week 17 contest on Christmas Day.
Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction, preview
Denver Broncos
Are the Broncos real Super Bowl contenders? A momentary bump in the road with a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars cut short an 11-game winning streak which would’ve set a new franchise record, but overall, signs still point to yes for Denver at 12-3. While not the most offensively gifted group with 24.1 points (13th) and 352.1 yards per game (10th), Bo Nix leads his team and keeps the ball moving enough to get the job done. The Broncos convert third downs at the 12th-best rate and score at the 11th-best mark in the red zone, both encouraging signs for postseason success. Many fans think of this as a run-first team, but the opposite is true with 233.9 passing yards per game (eighth-most) despite averaging just 6.5 yards per pass (26th). Courtland Sutton has seen his role rightfully increase with at least 10 targets in three consecutive games while Troy Franklin continues to play a large role on the outside as well, though rookie Pat Bryant (concussion) is out on Thursday. The run game posts a respectable 118.3 rushing yards per game and RJ Harvey is only improving by the week as the rookie gets more comfortable in the lead role.
The defense is what truly stands out for the Broncos, though. This group dominates the competition with 19.7 points (fifth-fewest) and 291.6 yards allowed per outing (fourth-fewest), holding opponents to the lowest third-down conversion rate of any NFL franchise. Denver also ranks second in opponent red-zone scoring percentage and touchdowns per game, so putting up points against the unit is a virtual nightmare. The Broncos give up the second-fewest passing yards per game at only 90.2 while holding opposing runners to just 3.8 YPC, and the pass defense is strong with 201.4 yards per game with Pat Surtain and Talanoa Hufanga in the secondary. The pass rush also sits tops in the league with 63 sacks — by a 13-sack margin — more than making up for a lack of takeaways with an average of just 0.8.
Kansas City Chiefs
Unfortunately, there’s far less to write about the Chiefs than there was when Mahomes was under center. The team holds a 6-9 record but managed just nine points and 133 total yards in a loss to the lowly Tennessee Titans last week. Imagine telling someone even a month ago about that outcome. On one hand, Kansas City averages 22.5 points (20th) and 342.9 yards per game (13th), scoring at the 14th-best rate in the red zone and converting third downs at the 15th-best mark. On the other hand, we can throw those numbers out the window with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew also sidelined due to a knee injury, leaving career practice-squader Chris Oladokun under center in this outing after taking over late last week. No disrespect to the new signal-caller, but the offensive outlook is spike-your-eggnog levels of ugly to wrap up the Christmas Day slate, especially with star wideout Rashee Rice (concussion) placed on IR.
The saving grace would typically be a very solid defense that allows 19.6 points (fourth-fewest) and 307.9 yards per contest (10th-best) along with just 2.1 touchdowns per game (fifth). However, even that side of the ball gave up 26 points to the Titans last week and will operate without former All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie (knee) and fellow defensive back Jaylen Watson (groin), both of whom now land on IR as well. Two other defensive standouts in the front seven, George Karlaftis (illness) and Nick Bolton (illness) are also questionable for this one as of the time of publication the night before the game. The situation is dire with the depleted secondary, but it hits whatever the highest level of DEFCON is if those two miss Thursday’s game. Again, you can basically throw out most of the stats due to all the injuries.
Broncos vs. Chiefs pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Broncos are strong -13.5 favorites on the road with -1100 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Chiefs are listed at +700 to win outright with a very low game total of 36.5 points. As far as betting splits are concerned, 86% of straight bets favor Denver while 73% are on the visitors to cover. On the total, 77% of the wagers favor the over.
Is there any chance the Chiefs somehow win this one? Sure, and with how long their +13.5 spread is, there’s almost a case at surface level to take them to cover with Denver 6-8-1 ATS this season. Then we snap back to the reality of the injury report and the third-string quarterback suiting up to helm an offense without its best weapon against perhaps the NFL’s top defense, and well… it’s going to get ugly very quickly.
The Broncos’ pass rush is the best in the league with Nik Bonitto at 12.5 sacks, three players at 6.5 or more and five more with at least 3.0 apiece. The front seven is deep and now faces a Kansas City offensive line that’s middle-of-the-pack in sack percentage allowed and a bit banged up as well, so watch for a ton of pressure heading Oladokun’s way. Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy cannot save the day here and will surely disappoint fantasy managers too. It’s tough to see the Chiefs getting anything going on offense given the talent they’re facing, which makes under 10.5 points on the team total a compelling play in itself. While the Broncos aren’t exactly a very high-scoring team themselves on offense, Nix has played some of his best football in recent weeks and will likely find himself in position to post a big outing through the air in particular, though most of the team’s playmakers could feast in this spot. Even with a two-touchdown spread, Denver can cover and there’s a real case for over 25.5 points.
Pick your poison here, but whatever you choose, make sure to get cozy for the final game of the Christmas NFL slate. You deserve it.
Best bet: KC Chiefs under 10.5 points (-110)