Cowboys at Commanders odds, picks and predictions

The Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) and Washington Commanders (4-11) meet Thursday in a Week 17 matchup at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (Netflix). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Cowboys vs. Commanders odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.

These heated NFC East rivals meet on Christmas Day, but there is nothing on the line except for pride. Dallas was eliminated from the playoff chase in Week 16, while Washington was eliminated long ago.

Dallas won the first meeting on Oct. 19 at Jerry World, winning 44-22 as a 1.5-point favorite as the Over (55.5) cashed. The Cowboys outgained the Commanders 409-341 in total yardage, while posting 257 passing yards, to just 205 for the Commanders. Washington was minus-2 in turnover margin, with one interception and one fumble lost.

In that Dallas win, Cowboys QB Dak Prescott threw for 264 yards and 3 TDs, while RB Javonte Williams rushed for 116 yards and a TD, and WR CeeDee Lamb had 5 receptions for 110 yards and a TD, while TE Jake Ferguson had 2 TD grabs. Commanders QB Jayden Daniels left with an injury to his right hamstring, while RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. had a rushing score.

Dallas has lost 3 in a row, and while it has averaged 24.3 points per game (PPG) on offense in those losses and 3 non-covers, it has allowed 34 or more points in each of those outings, allowing 37.3 PPG. The Over is 3-0-1 in the past 4 games, and 9-2-1 in the past 12 games.

Washington has scored 22 or fewer points in 7 of the past 9 games, including exactly 22 against Dallas in Week 7. The Over is 3-1 in the past 4 games, and 5-2 across the previous 7 outings.

Watch the NFL on Fubo!

Cowboys at Commanders odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 7:09 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Cowboys -325 (bet $325 to win $100) | Commanders +260 (bet $100 to win $260)Against the spread: Cowboys -7 (-110) | Commanders +7 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 50.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)Cowboys at Commanders key injuries

Cowboys

OG Tyler Booker (ankle) questionableDT Kenny Clark (hand) questionableRB Malik Davis (toe) questionableOT Tyler Guyton (ankle) questionableLB DeMarvion Overshown (concussion) questionableWR Ryan Flournoy (knee) questionableCB Shavon Revel Jr. (knee) questionableDE Payton Turner (ribs) questionableWR/KR KaVontae Turpin (shoulder) questionableRB Javonte Williams (neck) questionableDT Quinnen Williams (neck) questionableS Donovan Wilson (hip) questionable

Commanders

LB Nick Bellore (concussion) questionableOG Brandon Coleman (shin) questionableQB Jayden Daniels (elbow) questionableOT George Fant (knee) questionableQB Marcus Mariota (hand, quadriceps) questionableDT Daron Payne (back) questionableOT Laremy Tunsil (oblique) questionableTE Colson Yankoff (ankle) questionableCowboys at Commanders picks and predictionsPrediction

Cowboys 32, Commanders 16

The Cowboys (-325) will set you back more than 3 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not nearly enough reward.

While Dallas is in a lot better shape, health-wise, at least in terms of its skill-position players, it is anything but a sure thing, as is evidenced by its eliminated status for the playoffs.

PASS.

The COWBOYS -7 (-110) is a bit high on the road, but the Commanders have issues. The third-stringer Johnson could be in there under center, and that’s not a good thing.

Still, go lightly on Dallas, as it would be a lot more favorable if this number fell to 6 or 6.5. When I feel Dallas still gets it done by a rather handy margin, you just never know how an eliminated team is going to respond, and how its motivation will be from week to week, especially on the holiday when minds could be elsewhere.

UNDER 50.5 (-105) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.

Like the line above, Johnson’s potential to start under center is driving this Under train, as he is unlikely to throw downfield much. Instead, Washington might try and pound it with Rodriguez out of the backfield instead, or perhaps with rookie RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, as the team tries to get him some renewed confidence before the offseason. A run-heavy offense and high-percentage, short passing routes keeps the clock moving, which Under bettors love.

The Huddle has been turning players like you into winners for over 25 years. Custom fantasy football rankings, sleepers and tools are just a click away. Subscribe now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow @danieledobish on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Access more NFL coverage:

Cowboys at Commanders odds, picks and predictions

Tags: