Super Bowl run meets draft Implications for Rams

LOS ANGELES — The Los Angeles Rams are coming off the game of the year, potentially, but fell to the Seattle Seahawks in that overtime thriller, 38-37. There were several missed opportunities for LA. Out of the gate, the game plan was to run the ball mainly in 13 personnel with Davante Adams out, including both running backs, Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. It worked pretty well, but Seattle did adjust throughout the game and stuffed runs late.

For the game, the Rams ran the ball 39 times for 124 yards, 3.2 yards per carry, and one touchdown by Corum. While the run game didn’t pop, it was able to set up the Los Angeles passing game for a much better outing than the first meeting. The mixing and matching of personnel created favorable matchups for Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay, which allowed Stafford to throw for 457 yards and three touchdowns. Stafford’s connection with Puca Nacua was unstoppable as Nacua hauled in 12 passes for 225 yards and two scores, one being in overtime to give the Rams the lead.

The other receivers stepped up in the absence of Adams, including Xavier Smith catching a huge third-down pass down the field; Konata Mumpfield consistently getting open on third down over the middle with three catches for 40 yards; and rookie Terrance Ferguson taking advantage of matchups as well as McVay having a great design to put Seattle defenders in conflict to get Ferguson open for his touchdown.

However, there were definitely some missed opportunities, specifically, early in the game, getting stopped on fourth and inches, being three for six in the red zone, and leaving points on the board (one touchdown was taken off the board for an illegal man downfield on a bang-bang call). After LA got up 30-14, it felt like they were playing not to lose instead of playing to win, which made the run game harder to get to.

Moving forward, the Rams’ offense will be great. They simply must get healthy with guard Kevin Dotson going down in the first quarter, and Adams’ health being questionable going forward with his hamstring injury. Additionally, they must be more effective in the red zone as well, leaning on their veteran players like Williams, Stafford, and Nacua to finish the game and play more aggressively.

The defense actually played a great game overall, but what killed them was the explosive plays. On the first drive, Sam Darnold hit a play-action screen to Kenneth Walker for 46 yards; Walker popped a run for a 55-yard touchdown; Rashid Shaheed had a 31-yard run and a punt return touchdown that completely changed the game; and, of course, the controversial two-point play had a major part in how the game played out.

The Rams did a pretty good job on Darnold on a drive-by-drive basis, picking him off twice, sacking him four times, and allowing 244 passing yards. LA also punched out the ball on Cooper Kupp (former Ram) before half and recovered the fumble for another turnover.

Los Angeles disguised coverages, and Darnold had a tough time deciphering them, which led to a Kobie Turner interception (Turner dropped out of a Cover 0 look into the hook curl window) in the red zone as well as a Josh Wallace interception (Wallace showed press man and then came off of his receiver and undercut the route) that set up a Rams’ short field to extend the lead.

The run defense allowed a total of 171 yards, 6.8 yards per carry on 25 attempts, and two touchdowns. However, 86 yards came on two plays. The defense, as talked about earlier, played well, but the explosive plays killed them and allowed Seattle’s crowd to get back into it and change the game.

Special Teams was an area that the Seahawks won in the most important moments. Shaheed had the punt return touchdown, and the Rams’ normally reliable kicker, Harrison Mevis, missed a 48-yard field goal, and with how the game played out, that would have been enough to win. On the road, you cannot spot teams’ points in the kicking game or fail to capitalize on your own opportunities in the kicking game.

Their upcoming opponent, the Atlanta Falcons, comes off a thrilling 26-19 win over the Arizona Cardinals.

Kirk Cousins and the offense did an amazing job of bouncing back after a slow start. Cousins went for 190 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, lost a fumble, and was sacked once.

Bijan Robinson hauled in seven balls for 92 yards and one score, and Kyle Pitts caught seven passes, 97 yards and a touchdown. They both had great games, and their connection with Cousins has continued to excel late in the season. Drake London made his return from injury with three catches for 27 yards.

The running game for Atlanta also had a great day, with both Tyler Allgeier and Robinson going over 70 yards, and Cousins punching in a touchdown on the ground. The Falcon’s rushing attack totaled 152 yards on 37 carries and 4.1 yards per carry.

On the defensive side, the pass defense did a great job against a potent Cardinal air attack. They held Jacoby Brissett to 188 yards, one touchdown, sacked him twice, and CJ Henderson hauled in the game-ending interception.

Atlanta significantly limited Trey McBride, holding him to four catches for 27 yards. The noteworthy receivers for Arizona were Michael Wilson, having two catches, 52 yards, and a touchdown, and Elijah Higgins, who hauled in seven catches for 91 yards.

The Cardinals did have some success on the ground with 132 yards on 23 carries and an average of 5.7. The main back was Michael Carter, who had 11 carries for 65 yards, getting 5.9 yards per attempt.

The Falcons had a great team win, putting together some great games down the stretch. The Rams need to win to keep their hopes for the division and the one seed alive, as well as improve their first-round pick, as they have Atlanta’s pick from a draft-day trade in the past draft.

In this matchup, we will be looking at the Rams’ ability to be more efficient in the red zone than they were last week in Seattle. That is really where the game was lost for them. The LA red zone offense on the season is third best in the NFL, scoring touchdowns at a 65.22% clip as they go against a defense that is average, ranking 12th at allowing scores in the red area at a rate of 55.56%. This is one area where, if the Rams do want to put the Falcons away early, they must not struggle and, in fact, dominate.

On the Falcons’ offensive side of the ball, one of the keys will be whether the Falcons can again make the Rams pay on explosive plays, which they do not do very often. Los Angeles allows explosive plays seventh least in the NFL at 4.9%, and Atlanta generates explosive plays 16th in the league at 5.7%. The Rams’ defense does not allow teams to march the ball on them, and the difference in the Thursday game was the explosives.

Atlanta does have a multitude of weapons in Pitts, London, and Robinson, so it will not be easy by any means for the Rams, but the ability to do so will lead to success and a tough night for the Falcons.

With Davante Adams again being doubtful, LA again will look to establish the run in a variety of personnel groupings, but mainly in 13 personnel. Atlanta’s defense allows 128.2 rushing yards per game (25th), and the Rams are the sixth-best rushing offense, averaging 126.3 yards per game. LA did a great job early in the game last week; however, once they got up, they were forcing the run game, and it looked too predictable.

This week, LA will look to improve that, as well as lean on veterans like Williams in the run game to shorten the game so their defense is on the field less and can really get after the Falcons’ offense. This will also create mismatches in space in the play-action passing game for players like Nacua and Ferguson.

With Atlanta’s multitude of weapons, the coverage Los Angeles will play will determine play selection as well as how the pace of the game will go. The Rams defensively do favor the one high coverage at 51.5% (15th), meaning they will favor Cover 1 and Cover 3. The Rams do favor zone overall with a 79.5% rate ranking fourth most, which will put them in more Cover 3 and potentially variations of Cover 6.

However, as they did last week, they will mix up coverages, drop defensive linemen, blitz corners, and run fire zones with three deep, three or four under, and five to six players rushing the passer. Against a team like Atlanta with younger players and a veteran quarterback, this could frustrate them and create miscues that will result in turnovers and allow the LA offense to do what they do and jump on the Falcons early.

In a Monday primetime spot, the Rams need this game a lot more, and I believe their experience, as well as the understanding of the impact this game has on this season, as well as the draft, will be the difference. I predict that LA will pick up the win 31-20.

Super Bowl run meets draft Implications for Rams

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