Riding a six-game winning streak into Lucas Oil Stadium, the Jaguars are looking to clinch the AFC South and stay in the race for the No. 1 seed. Bryan Bash breaks down why the Jaguars’ elite run defense is the key to this Week 17 ATS pick.

Opening Setup

This Week 17 matchup features two AFC South teams trending in different directions, yet priced within a relatively manageable range by the betting market. Jacksonville enters riding a five-game winning streak, while Indianapolis has dropped five of its last seven and is coming off a lopsided loss to San Francisco on Monday night.

For newer bettors, this is a useful example of how recent form and matchup context are balanced against home field and divisional familiarity. Jacksonville defeated Indianapolis 36–19 just three weeks ago, and the Jaguars are again favored — though by less than a touchdown on the road.

The betting question is whether Jacksonville’s recent efficiency continues to show up in this spot, or whether Indianapolis is able to produce a more competitive performance at home.

Game Details

Date: Sunday, December 28
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
TV: FOX

Current Betting Lines

Provided by EveryGame

Bet Type
Line
Juice

Point Spread
Jacksonville -6.5
-110

Total Points
Over/Under 48
Over -105 / Under -115

Moneyline
Jacksonville -290 / Indianapolis +240
–

Quick Translation: Laying -6.5 requires Jacksonville to win by seven or more points to cover. The total of 48 reflects expectations of a moderately high-scoring game, while the moneyline prices Jacksonville as a clear favorite.

Market Context

The spread has remained relatively stable around Jacksonville -6.5, suggesting the market has largely agreed on the gap between these teams while still accounting for Indianapolis playing at home. The total has moved upward from the mid-40s to 48, indicating increased expectations for scoring.

Rather than reading this as a directional statement, it’s more useful to view the pricing as a reflection of Jacksonville’s offensive efficiency combined with Indianapolis’s recent defensive results.

Key Matchups

The most important matchup centers on Jacksonville’s offense against an Indianapolis defense that has struggled with consistency.

Points per play: Jacksonville 0.424 (9th) vs Indianapolis 0.357 (14th)
Yards per play: Jacksonville 5.2 vs Indianapolis allowing 5.3
Red-zone TD rate: Jacksonville 61.67% (12th) vs Indianapolis allowing 54.24% (10th)

Another key factor is Jacksonville’s run defense. The Jaguars allow just 87.3 rushing yards per game (1st), which limits Indianapolis’s ability to lean on Jonathan Taylor. In the previous meeting, Taylor was held to 74 yards on 21 carries.

Jacksonville’s turnover margin of +0.8 per game (3rd) also contributes to shorter fields and scoring efficiency, particularly against a Colts team that has struggled with ball security during its recent stretch.

Why Jacksonville Holds the Matchup Edge

Quarterback Efficiency: Trevor Lawrence has been efficient over the past month, with strong touchdown production and limited turnovers.
Recent Head-to-Head Results: Jacksonville’s 36–19 win three weeks ago provides a relevant comparison point for how these teams match up.
Run Defense: Jacksonville’s ability to limit rushing success forces Indianapolis into more predictable passing situations.

Betting Outlook

Jacksonville -6.5 (-110) — From a matchup perspective, Jacksonville has clear advantages in efficiency, turnover margin, and run defense. Those edges create multiple paths to covering a number just under a touchdown, even on the road.

Total Consideration: The over 48 is worth monitoring given Jacksonville’s scoring profile and Indianapolis’s recent defensive results. Bettors may also consider Jacksonville team total options if expecting sustained offensive success.

What to Watch For

Indianapolis’s ability to run effectively early
Jacksonville’s turnover discipline
Red-zone efficiency on both sides
Game flow if Jacksonville establishes a multi-score lead

Bottom Line

Jacksonville enters this matchup with advantages in efficiency, recent execution, and defensive profile. Indianapolis faces a difficult path if it cannot establish the run or protect the football.

With the spread sitting below a touchdown, the Jaguars have a reasonable path to covering if the game follows a similar structure to the first meeting.

Score Projection: Jaguars 31, Colts 21.