Will the Raiders “earn” the no. 1 pick in the draft for the first time since 2007?

They might not be playing for the pick, but the Raiders control their 2026 draft destiny and a pair of losses in the final two games of the season will guarantee Tom Brady and company the rights to Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza.

But with the Giants and Chiefs (without Patrick Mahomes) looming on the schedule, the Raiders probably shouldn’t be considered the favorites to finish with the worst record in the league – especially after the way they played in week 16 against the Texans.

Maxx Crosby has already said he doesn’t care about the draft and according to Sports Illustrated insider Hondo Carpenter, the locker room has a little extra motivation to win the final two games of the season.

“These guys are fighting for Pete [Carroll] and I know that for a fact,” Carpenter said on the Las Vegas Raiders Insider podcast. “I’ll get into more details on how I know it if they go away from Pete. But [if] they go out and win those last two, and this team shows a pulse, continues to show a pulse, it’s going to be really interesting to watch how this thing plays out. Really, really interesting to see how this thing plays out.”

“I’m telling you right now, and I am just as blunt as I can be. I believe it’s going to take Mark to save Pete’s job, but I don’t think that’s out of the question. I have no clue, even a percentage. Somebody asked me today in an interview, I was getting interviewed when I said that. What do you think the percentage is? I have no idea. I know that Pete doesn’t want to leave. I know he’s not going to retire. And so, Mark’s going to have to ask himself, do I want to eat 30 million?”

For what it’s worth, the popular opinion seems to be that Carroll is going to be fired at the end of the season, and it would appear from the outside that Brady and GM John Spytek are leaning heavily toward going in a new direction at head coach next year.

Carroll wasn’t the Raiders’ first choice a year ago, and it’s fair to wonder if the organization has its eye on someone else going into the 2026 season.

Prior to Sunday’s loss to the Texans, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler hinted that the decision makers in Las Vegas might be inclined to sign up for a youth movement at head coach in the offseason…

“Pressure is mounting on Pete Carroll in Las Vegas after the team has struggled to stay competitive at 2-12. Here’s my sense after asking around Tuesday: The Raiders knew 2025 would be a bit of a slog due to some roster deficiencies, but they hoped they would stay competitive — at least more so than this season’s horrific point differential of minus-167, trailing only the Titans (minus-169). One team source acknowledged, “It wasn’t supposed to be this bad,” and that something will need to change…

Whether removing Carroll is that change has not been crystallized. But the proverbial hot seat chatter doesn’t appear to be going away. As one source with knowledge of the Raiders’ operation noted, what the team needs is what it thought it had with Antonio Pierce — a high-energy first-time head coach with a high ceiling. The Raiders didn’t have enough patience to find out whether Pierce (who went 4-13 in his only full season in Vegas, saddled by bad quarterback play) could mature into that. Either way, the Raiders appear to be in danger of a second consecutive one-and-done in the top leadership role.”