Happy holidays and welcome to a special early edition of The Athletic’s weekly NFL roundtable, where Jeff Howe, Zak Keefer and Mike Sando gather ahead of the games to discuss some of the week’s biggest topics.
NFL Week 17 kicks off on Christmas with a tripleheader that looked great back on schedule-release day in May but has decreased in intrigue due in part to quarterback injuries. The day kicks off with the Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders, then is followed by the Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs. The Lions’ attempt to stay alive for playoff contention is worth watching, if nothing else.
The action continues on Saturday with two more games that do have meaning in the playoff race — the Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers, and the Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers — before the usual Sunday lineup.
What do Jeff, Zak and Mike think about the early slate of games, and who might be in the driver’s seat for the NFL Draft No. 1 pick when the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders play on Sunday? Read on for their thoughts.
Four of the six teams playing on Christmas (the Chiefs, Commanders, Cowboys and Vikings) have already been eliminated from playoff contention. A fifth, the Lions, will be eliminated with a loss on Thursday. In the spirit of today’s holiday, what’s one gift you’d like to give to one of these five teams to help it reach the playoffs a year from now?
Keefer: I genuinely hurt for Lions fans because of the way the past two seasons have ended, and it’s starting to feel like the championship window is slowly beginning to close in Detroit. Dan Campbell said it best, in the moments after his team’s gutting NFC Championship Game loss two years ago in San Francisco: “This may have been our only shot.” That’s how cruel this league can be. The Lions haven’t won a playoff game since. My gift to them? A sharp offensive coordinator who will allow Campbell to relinquish play-calling duties, and a few early-round draft picks that can shore up a defense that hasn’t been good enough in the biggest moments the past few years. This team can make it back.
Howe: I’m coming down the chimney with two defensive difference-makers for Dallas with its first-round draft picks. If they’re in the form of a pass rusher and cornerback, fantastic, but the Cowboys simply need to take the best players available with those selections. They’re ranked 30th in total yards allowed, 31st in points allowed, 31st in rushing touchdowns allowed and 32nd in passing yards allowed. Dak Prescott is 32 years old and has spent far too much of his prime years with a bad offensive line and/or defense. The Cowboys got to 6-5-1 this season after back-to-back victories against the Philadelphia Eagles and Chiefs, but they’ve surrendered 112 points during the three-game losing streak that knocked them out of playoff contention. Stop the madness.
Sando: I’d love to give the Chiefs the gift of an honest-self scout so that Andy Reid, one of the greatest coaches in NFL history, makes meaningful structural changes to his offense with an eye toward creating a real run threat so life becomes easier for Patrick Mahomes, his currently rehabbing 30-year-old superstar quarterback.
The Texans, now 10-5, are trying to become only the seventh team since 1979 to make the playoffs after starting 0-3. They clinch their spot if they beat the Chargers on Saturday afternoon, but that won’t be easy with the 11-4 Chargers still in the mix for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. What’s the key to victory for the Texans on Saturday?
Howe: The Texans are as dangerous as any team in the field. If they can protect C.J. Stroud, they appear to have a realistic chance to chase a Super Bowl. But for this particular matchup, the Texans absolutely have to capitalize on their greatest advantage, springing Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter from the edge and exposing the Chargers’ backup tackles. Of course, the Chargers have dealt with this challenge throughout the season, so they’ll be prepared. But the Texans have an ideal matchup with their strength on the opposite side of the Chargers’ weakness.
Sando: The key will be dominating the Chargers’ depleted offensive line and harassing Justin Herbert into hasty decisions. Houston should be able to do this with its defensive front. I’ve withheld some praise for the Chargers in recent weeks because I wanted to see how they fared against Houston here and Denver next week.
Keefer: These are the two biggest sleepers in the AFC because of how they’re playing of late, and what I’m most excited about is watching Herbert try to attack this vicious Houston secondary. The last time he tried — January’s wild-card game — it ended disastrously for him. He threw a career-worst four interceptions. He’s been better this season, and despite the broken left hand, is playing at an MVP-level, per his coach Jim Harbaugh. Win this one, and I’ll start to believe Herbert and the Chargers have what it takes to make it out of the AFC.
Saturday’s prime-time NFL game is the Ravens at the Packers, whose coaches are facing questions about their team futures if they miss the playoffs. Who do you like in this one, especially with both starting quarterbacks uncertain to play because of a back contusion (Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson) and concussion protocol (Green Bay’s Jordan Love)?
Keefer: The Ravens have been a hard team to trust all season, going way back to their Week 1 collapse in Buffalo, so I’m leaning Packers in this one, even if Malik Willis gets the start. Green Bay has shown it can move the ball and score points with Willis, and the Packers have to be seething after last week’s stunning loss in Chicago — a game they controlled throughout. If both starting quarterbacks are down, I like Green Bay’s roster — and coach — a little more.
Howe: I don’t trust either team right now, but I trust the Ravens less than the Packers. I’m not sure whether the Ravens were gearing up for a last stand against the Patriots, which would explain a strong three-quarter performance before another fourth-quarter letdown, but that could be a recipe for a flat performance against the Packers if they feel their season has essentially slipped away. Willis has been playing well enough to help the Packers beat the Ravens if he’s forced to suit up for Love.
Sando: The Packers are my choice all the way, especially if Love is cleared to return. Something isn’t right with Baltimore. It feels like we’re seeing the final days of John Harbaugh’s tenure there. Jackson doesn’t look right. The postgame comments from Kyle Hamilton do not seem right. Green Bay’s issues seem easier to explain, and less apparent in the win column.
One of Sunday’s most compelling games is the Giants at the Raiders, as the loser will be in the driver’s seat for the draft’s No. 1 pick. Which team’s struggles this season were more surprising to you? And what position should each team target with the pick if they win it?
Sando: The Raiders’ total lack of competitiveness (except last week and a few other weeks) has surprised me more than the Giants’ futility. Entering the season, I thought no team upgraded at both head coach and quarterback as much as the Raiders. It made sense in going from Antonio Pierce to Pete Carroll, and from Aidan O’Connell to Geno Smith. If Carroll and Smith could be slightly above average, which was a reasonable expectation, the Raiders had a shot to win eight or nine games, by my way of thinking. Instead, they’ve been an embarrassment, and far worse than they were last season.
Howe: I didn’t have high expectations for either team before the season, but I’m more surprised by the Raiders’ season-long faceplant under Carroll. At least the Giants have been competitive for stretches. Assuming the Raiders are comfortable with Fernando Mendoza or Dante Moore (if he declares), they have to take a quarterback in the draft. That won’t be a difficult decision. If the Giants have the top pick, they have to auction it off to the highest bidder, and they should have suitors with the Raiders, Cleveland Browns and New York Jets in dire need of a quarterback. If both Mendoza and Moore are in the draft, the Giants should actually try to trade down to No. 2 and then once more to maximize their draft capital over the next two years. Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese and Miami defensive lineman Rueben Bain Jr. should be the considerations once the Giants are ready to pick.
Keefer: It’s hard to pick against the Raiders here; they’ve been a disaster throughout the season and barely competitive in a number of games. It’s even more stunning when you consider Carroll never lost more than 10 games in a season with the Seahawks. Bringing him back is becoming impossible to justify. But the Giants, meanwhile, are coming off one of the worst passing performances I’ve ever seen — Jaxson Dart threw for just 33 yards in Sunday’s loss to the Vikings — so any offensive piece this team can add will help it in 2026. An offensive-minded head coach will be the first step. But with Dart, Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers returning, there are foundational pieces in place. Why not add another scary element like Ohio State wideout Carnell Tate?