Sean Barnard dives into the player prop bets in the Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders matchup in NFL Week 17 Christmas matchup.

Three games of NFL action are kicking off across the December 25th, Christmas slate. To start the day, the Dallas Cowboys will face the Washington Commanders.

Neither of these NFC East teams holds their desired outlook, with both sides eliminated from playoff contention heading into Week 17. The Commanders failed to build off their Conference Championship run last year, with Jayden Daniels’ injury playing a major role in derailing their season. The Cowboys were held down by defensive issues this season and dropped to 6-8-1 following last week’s loss to the Chargers.

Looking at the odds for the matchup, the Cowboys enter as seven-point favorites and hold -340 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Commanders hold +270 odds of getting the outright victory, with the game total set at O/U 50.5 points.

There are numerous ways to get involved in the action beyond simply backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 17 Christmas matchup between the Cowboys and Commanders.

Cowboys at Commanders Best Prop Bets

Javonte Williams Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

Despite the team’s underperformance, Javonte Williams has been a massive bright spot for the Cowboys all year. The former 35th overall pick has taken on an expanded role in Dallas after spending the first four years of his career with the Broncos. Williams has rushed the ball 239 times this season for 1,147 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. He is averaging 76.5 rushing yards per game and has tallied over 75.5 rushing yards in nine of the 15 games.

Williams will look to add to this against a vulnerable and aging Commanders’ defense. Washington enters with a 4-11 record on the season, ranking 27th in points allowed and 31st in total yards conceded. Looking just at their run defense, they rank 29th in total rushing yards allowed, 28th in net yards per rushing attempt, and 20th in rushing touchdowns conceded. They have allowed 107 or more rushing yards to opposing teams in 10 of the 14 games this year.

Dallas will already have plans to put the ball in Williams’s hands frequently. He is averaging a career-high 15.9 rush attempts per game and has had double-digit rush attempts in all but one game. But the friendly rushing matchup and game script will also favor a strong scoring output. Expect Dallas to hand Williams the ball throughout, and for the former Broncos’ standout to pick up chunks all game. The 75.5 rushing yard line is too low based on the context of the matchup, and Williams is expected to eclipse this for the 10th time this season.

Deebo Samuel Under 43.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

Not only has Jayden Daniels been shut down for the remainder of the season for Washington, but backup quarterback Marcus Mariota’s status is in doubt due to hand and quad injuries he suffered last week, which puts his status for this week in serious doubt. If Mariota cannot go, it would be Josh Johnson making the start for the Commanders. Johnson came in for Mariota last week following the issues, completing five of his nine pass attempts for 43 yards and a touchdown.

There are plenty of good things to be said about Josh Johnson. The 39-year-old has bounced around since 2009, including stints with the XFL and another professional league, playing for seven total NFL teams. While he has a strong reputation as a locker room presence, the outlook for Johnson on the field is not as positive. Since 2020, Johnson has attempted 99 passes for 708 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions.

This will play a major role in the outlook for Deebo Samuel this week. The former Pro Bowler has tallied 68 receptions for 639 yards on the year. He is averaging 45.6 receiving yards per game, but has been held to under 43.5 receiving yards in eight of the 14 games. This includes three straight games entering this matchup.

Dallas has not had a strong defense all season, with them ranking 31st in points allowed and 30th in yards given up. But Johnson did not exactly look capable of capitalizing on any NFL quality in his first snaps this year. Expect the lack of quarterback production to limit the outlook for the rest of the team and for Samuel to be directly impacted.

Dak Prescott to Record 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+165)

The lack of team success for the Cowboys has not been due to a lack of effort from Dak Prescott. The four-time Pro Bowler has played some of the best football of his career and led a top offensive unit in the league. Prescott is completing 68.5% of his pass attempts for 4,175 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions on the season. He has thrown for at least one touchdown in 12 of his 15 games played, multiple touchdowns in nine, and three or more in five games this year.

While their season goals are no longer in reach, there is still a level of pride that Prescott and the Cowboys play with. Expect them to continue bringing their best effort and putting on a show, even if the stakes are not what they expected. This is especially the case with a vulnerable defensive matchup. Washington ranks 31st in net yards per pass attempt, 26th in total passing yards conceded, and 30th in passing touchdowns allowed.

Count on Prescott continuing to finish the season on a high note and taking advantage of a vulnerable division rival. He finished with three passing touchdowns in the first matchup between these two teams, and the concerns with Washington’s defense have only become more prominent since. Dallas is a pass-first football team and will allow Prescott to remain at the helm in terms of production.