The New York Giants (2-13) can reportedly lock up the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft as early as this weekend — with one week still to play — if a specific set of Week 17 results falls their way.

Currently holding the top spot via strength of schedule (SOS) tiebreaker over the fellow 2-13 Las Vegas Raiders, the Giants need a combination of their own loss, a favorable result elsewhere, and protection on the SOS tiebreaker.

Here are the key Week 17 scenarios that would allow the Giants to clinch the No. 1 pick outright after Sunday, as outlined by Doug Analytics.

Giants lose to Raiders in the Tank Bowl

The direct head-to-head matchup is pivotal. A loss drops the Giants to 2-14 and sends the Raiders to 3-13, immediately eliminating the Raiders as a same-record threat for the remainder of the season. A Giants win would push them to 3-13 and drop the Raiders to 2-14, keeping the SOS battle alive into Week 18 but flipping the roles in the tank race.

Browns defeat Steelers

The 3-12 Browns need to improve to 4-12. This reduces the risk of Cleveland falling back into the mix at a lower win total and helps stabilize potential multi-team tie scenarios at the bottom of the standings.

Giants secure strength-of-schedule tiebreaker

To guarantee the SOS edge over any remaining competitors (primarily in case other 2- or 3-win teams lose), one of the following must happen:

Path A: Jets beat Patriots

A Jets win provides a clean, high-impact boost to the Giants’ SOS position.

Path B: Accumulate at least 7 “SOS points” from other Week 17 results

Certain opponent wins move the differential in the Giants’ favor. The point values (based on remaining schedule impacts) typically include higher-value games such as:

Buffalo Bills win (4 points)Baltimore Ravens win (2 points)Select other games worth 1 point each: Dallas (win), Denver (win), Houston (win), Jacksonville (win), Miami (win), Carolina (win), Cincinnati (win), Atlanta (win)

The exact combination needed adds up to at least seven points to lock the tiebreaker regardless of Week 18. Perhaps most importantly, the Browns must beat the Steelers.

If all three conditions are met — Giants loss, Browns win, and SOS secured via either Path A or Path B — the Giants will officially clinch the No. 1 pick before Week 18 even kicks off. No other team would be able to catch them in record or tiebreakers.

The simplest long-term path remains losing out (finishing 2-15), which would almost certainly deliver the top pick alone, but this Week 17 combination offers a chance to wrap it up early.