One set of NFL subplots that’s worth keeping an eye on late in the regular season are the races to meet various milestones to earn bonuses and escalators. Many players have clauses in their contracts to make additional money with a high level of play, and some will inevitably go down to the wire. There are also other considerations, like hitting markers to boost rookie deal numbers.
There are two Seattle Seahawks that either have, or are looking to, gird their wallets with further earnings. Whether we should want them to is debatable, since their bonuses will count against Seattle’s salary cap, but I personally have no issue with players playing at a high level and getting rewarded. So let’s take a look at what’s going on for these two.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
This one is fairly settled. JSN was a first round pick in 2023, so his contract contains a fifth year option that the team can pick up in this upcoming offseason. Even though Seattle is going to be heavily motivated to get JSN on a contract extension this offseason, they can still pick the option up, and likely will since it gives them an additional year at under market value.
The value of that fifth year option is calculated from the average of players at the same position over the prior five seasons, with potential minor increases if they play enough snaps. The big increases come in with Pro Bowl nods, and as of yesterday, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a one time original ballot Pro Bowler, which means his fifth year option goes up significantly.
(JSN did make the Pro Bowl last year as well, but as an alternate, so it does not count for this.)
Previously, with just the playtime milestone met, JSN’s option would have been $17.5 million, but thanks to this Pro Bowl nod it’s up to $24.4 million. A seven million dollar increase that still sets him at a level that clearly far below his actual value as a player. His extension will probably be around $40 million a season, and this option pushes those monster cap hits out an extra year.
Even if Seattle ends up, for one reason or another, not utilizing the option, it’s still a piece of leverage either side could use, and the boosted value helps JSN in extension discussions.
I don’t believe there will be much else here in terms of performance bonuses. Proven Performance Escalators are there for players picked in round two and beyond, so keep an eye on players like Derick Hall, Zach Charbonnet, and Anthony Bradford getting small boosts next year, but not on the level of this JSN bonus.
Sam Darnold (14) passes against the Indianapolis Colts during the second quarter at Lumen Field. | Steven-Imagn Images
Sam Darnold
Here’s the fun one. In Sam Darnold’s contract he signed with Seattle in the offseason, there were nine escalators in each season, with each escalator being worth $500,000. In short, Darnold was eligible to earn an additional $4,500,000 per season on the contract with high level play and high level team success. Let’s check in on those potential bonuses here.
Three are wrapped up in what happens in the postseason, so we’ll push those to the side for now. One is Seattle simply making the postseason, which has already happened, so that’s locked up. Another is the offense as a whole finishing in the top ten in yards, and they are currently seventh, although they’re only nine and half yards ahead of eleventh.
It’s the other four that are compelling, and may end up having an impact on how Seattle plays these next two weeks to give Sam the best chance to earn these bonuses. Let’s take a look.
4,000 Passing Yards
Darnold currently sits at 3,703, and even with his low volume passing this season it seems highly unlikely that Sam will get through these next two games averaging less than 150 passing yards per, although his season low was 128 against the Vikings and he barely hit 150 in week one against San Francisco. This should be in the bag.
28 Passing Touchdowns
Sam’s got 24 of these, and he’s thrown zero touchdowns in three of his last six games, so this is no lock. I wonder if we see Darnold try to pick up a goalline touchdown pass or two to increase his odds, and I hope it doesn’t end up backfiring. He’s actually not on pace for this, but with so few games left, he doesn’t need much to swing his way to deliver it.
67.5% Completion
Holding at 67.2%, so 0.3% off, but with more than enough time to get the tiny bump he needs. It is worth noting that Darnold over the first nine games of the season was up at 71.1%, but since the first Rams game is down to 62.8%, so the trend has been downward, not up. Doable, but not at all easy or automatic given his dropoff.
100 Passer Rating
He’s got it for now at 100.6, but a gust of wind could take it away. He’ll have to get a hold on the turnovers in order to nab this one, and the trend is not good. Over his first nine games, Sam’s rating was 116.5, but has plummeted to 82 after. Right the ship, or this is $500,000 Darnold won’t be picking up.
Put it all together, and Darnold still has a reasonable chance to earn all nine of his incentive bonuses for 2025, but he’s going to have to really bring it in the next couple weeks, and then bring it even harder in the postseason.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11) celebrates his touchdown with quarterback Sam Darnold (14) during the second quarter against the Tennessee Titans. | Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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