Things look bad for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs have lost six of their last seven games, including a crucial Week 16 game against the Carolina Panthers, who now lead the NFC South. The Bucs have been off form, so there are plenty of reasons why they might miss the playoffs.

That being said, they’re still favored to make it. Aside from a scenario where the Bucs lose to the Dolphins and the Panthers beat the Seahawks, it’s likely that the NFC South is decided in Week 18 in a head-to-head matchup, and if that’s the case, the Bucs could have the upper hand. Here are t

The Carolina Panthers are too inconsistent

The Carolina Panthers truly are Schrodinger’s cats — One week they look excellent, and the next, they falter.

The Panthers have traded wins and losses since their bye week. And yes, while that pattern would technically mean they beat the Bucs, it also means that they could show up and play poorly in Week 18. The Panthers took a drubbing vs the San Francisco 49ers in a 20-9 loss, netting -0.183, and their EPA/play has dropped every week since a 0.226 against the Rams, culminating in a 0.099 against the Bucs last week in a victory.

The Panthers are trending down, and even so, they have trouble playing good football for too long. It could be a good game against the Bucs in Week 18, but it’s just as likely to be a bad one — maybe even moreso, given the stat below.

It’s really hard to beat a team twice

It’s hard to win any game in the NFL, but it’s very hard to beat the same team twice. Even when teams face paltry divisional opponents, divisional matchups can often be toss-ups, especially this close together. From 2020-24, NFL teams swept a division rival 57.1% of the time. So far in 2025, that number is at 50% of eligible teams, with the NFC sitting at 42.9%. The Panthers swept the Falcons this year, but they had to win that game in overtime, and they also split their series with the New Orleans Saints.

The Panthers have gotten the Tampa Bay Buccaneers once so far on the road, but in Tampa Bay, it could be a different story. This math, combined with the Panthers’ erratic play, means that the Bucs have a great shot of winning the second matchup and going to the playoffs.

The Bucs have been in this position far more recently

It’s been a struggle for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on this front every year. The Bucs, since 2022, have locked up their division within the final weeks of the season, so they’re used to playing with their backs against the wall. A good portion of this roster already has playoff experience, and they know how to grind out a win when it matters.

The Panthers, on the other hand, haven’t been to the playoffs since 2017 and haven’t won the NFC South since 2015, the year they went to the Super Bowl. This team hasn’t been in this scenario in years, and that could add some pressure that the Bucs, at this point in their tenure, have been used to. That last game in Week 18 is likely the big decider, and Tampa Bay has played in plenty of those games the last few years.

First, though, the Buccaneers have to play the Dolphins at 1 p.m. Assuming the Panthers lose to the Seahawks or the Bucs beat the Dolphins and the Panthers beat the Seahawks, the division will go down to the wire in Week 18 — and the Bucs will be as ready as they can be.

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