We got an early Christmas gift last week, as I enjoyed one of my most successful betting weeks of the season. For the Week 16 slate, I correctly picked 12 of the 16 games on the moneyline and was 10-5-1 ATS overall. That included a 4-1 ATS mark within my five locks of the week, with my lone loss coming via the Denver Broncos falling to the Jacksonville Jaguars. That’ll certainly have us rocking around the Christmas tree and having a few extra celebratory eggnogs.

As I now try to keep this momentum rolling through the holiday slate, injuries are going to make Week 17 a little tricky, as a number of injured quarterbacks are dampening the overall crop of games. In part because of those injuries, I found myself leaning on favorites for the majority of this slate, as I’m taking just five underdogs to cover and only three of them to pull off outright upsets.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

2025 record

Locks of the Week ATS: 42-38-0
ATS: 106-132-2
ML: 150-89-1

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)

The Broncos saw their 11-game winning streak snapped last week in a rather surprising loss at home to the Jaguars. The defense allowed 34 points, the most it has given up this season. The loss also kept the door ajar for their AFC rivals, the Chargers, to potentially leapfrog them in the standings for the No. 1 seed. But while a little air has come out of the balloon, it hasn’t popped, and I have a hard time seeing the Broncos struggle in this Christmas Day matchup.

The Chiefs already lost Patrick Mahomes (ACL) for the season, and now top backup Gardner Minshew is on injured reserve with a knee injury. That’ll thrust Chris Oladokun in at quarterback. The former seventh-round pick in 2022 has spent the last four seasons on Kansas City’s practice squad, so he does have familiarity with the offense, but he could be walking into a buzzsaw.

I expect this Denver defense to make a statement after its worst outing of the season, and Oladokun could be on the receiving end of that, especially with a less-than-stellar offensive line in front of him.

Projected score: Broncos 27, Chiefs 10
The pick: Broncos -12.5

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

The Bills defense has me worried about its ability to go far in the postseason. They haven’t paid for it yet, as they are 4-0 when they give up 31 points or more this season, but that’s not sustainable, especially against a team like Philadelphia. 

This could specifically be a game where Saquon Barkley explodes, continuing his late-season resurgence that includes rushing for at least 120 yards in two of his past three games. Buffalo is giving up 5.4 yards per carry this season, which ranks as the second-highest mark in the NFL and trails only the Giants (5.5 yards per carry). For reference, the last time Barkley faced New York, he posted 150 yards on just 13 carries in Week 8. 

When you pair that mismatch with an improved Jalen Hurts (five touchdowns and zero interceptions over his last two games), Philly should have little problem moving the football. While Josh Allen and James Cook form one of the best one-two punches in the league, the Eagles defense allows just 5.0 yards per play this season, which ties for the fifth-lowest mark in the NFL. This smells like an upset.

Projected score: Eagles 27, Bills 24
The pick: Eagles +2

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

The Bengals offense is finally looking like the unit we expected now that it is fully healthy, and it is coming off a Week 16 win over the Dolphins, where it dropped a season-high 45 points. Now, they take on an Arizona team that has lost seven straight entering Week 17 and is allowing 31.8 points per game since Week 6, the highest mark in the NFL over that span. 

This sets the stage for another high-flying day of offense for Joe Burrow’s unit. Even when you account for the shutout loss to the Ravens in Week 15, Cincinnati is averaging 27.7 points per game since Burrow returned from injury in Week 13. 

As always with the Bengals, the concern isn’t whether they can score; it’s whether the defense can fend off the opponent enough to pull out the win. Against this Cardinals team, I expect it to hold up its end of the bargain. Over the last three games, the Cardinals offense has averaged just 18.7 points per game. Even if Cincinnati’s defense gives up a tick more than that average, the offense is potent enough to pull out the win and cover the spread.

Projected score: Bengals 33, Cardinals 23
The pick: Bengals -7

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

Hand up, I did not think the Jaguars were capable of going into Denver and beating the Broncos. Throughout the season, I’ve been skeptical about how high Jacksonville’s ceiling really is, but it has proven me wrong time and time again. No more. I’m looking at them as a serious player in the AFC and treating them like one of the conference’s elite clubs. 

If they can go to Mile High and win, they are more than capable of pulling out a victory at Lucas Oil Stadium by more than a touchdown. Over his past six games, Trevor Lawrence is averaging 8.4 yards per attempt, has 19 total touchdowns and a passer rating of 108.7. All of those are the highest marks in the NFL over that stretch. Lawrence should be able to outduel Philip Rivers, who will be playing on a short week.

Projected score: Jaguars 27, Colts 20
The pick: Jaguars -6.5

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS | Paramount+)

I wrote about it on Monday in my weekly Cover 32 column, but it’s worth pointing out again: Cam Ward is enjoying a full-fledged breakout. Over his last three games, he’s 2-1 and has Tennessee averaging 27 points per game, while he’s totaled six touchdowns and just one turnover, giving him a 97.9 passer rating. While Tyler Shough has been good himself, I think Ward will have a more balanced point of attack in this game. 

New Orleans’ backfield is so banged up that Taysom Hill led the team with 12 rushing attempts last week, and the team as a whole dropped back to pass 50 times. That’s too lopsided and creates a one-dimensional offense that is much easier to slow down. On the Tennessee side, Tony Pollard has rushed for at least 100 yards in three straight games, and Ward is getting serviceable contributions from his pass catchers like Chig Okonkwo, Tyjae Spears, and Elic Ayomannor. The Titans are live dogs.

Projected score: Titans 23, Saints 21
The pick: Titans +2.5

Rest of the bunch

Cowboys at Commanders (Thursday)
Projected score: Cowboys 30, Commanders 20
The pick: Cowboys -7

Lions at Vikings (Thursday)
Projected score: Lions 28, Vikings 17
The pick: Lions -7.5

Texans at Chargers (Saturday)
Projected score: Texans 23, Chargers 21
The pick: Texans +2.5

Ravens at Packers (Saturday)
Projected score: Packers 24, Ravens 20
The pick: Packers -2.5

Patriots at Jets
Projected score: Patriots 30, Jets 17
The pick: Patriots -12.5

Steelers at Browns
Projected score: Steelers 23, Browns 20
The pick: Browns +3.5

Seahawks at Panthers
Projected score: Seahawks 28, Panthers 21
The pick: Panthers +7.5

Buccaneers at Dolphins
Projected score: Buccaneers 27, Dolphins 20
The pick: Buccaneers -5.5

Giants at Raiders
Projected score: Raiders 23, Giants 17
The pick: Raiders -1.5

Bears at 49ers 
Projected score: 49ers 30, Bears 24
The pick: 49ers -3

Rams at Falcons (Monday)
Projected score: Rams 30, Falcons 20
The pick: Rams -8.5