Buccaneers vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets: NFL, Week 17

The Buccaneers are -5.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins

Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points

Watch this game on FOX

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8-0) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (6-9-0) on Dec. 28. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Miami, FL.

The Buccaneers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Buccaneers vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.

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Buccaneers vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Spread

Total

Money

Buccaneers

Dolphins

Buccaneers vs. Dolphins Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this game with 68.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Buccaneers vs Dolphins Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread with 56.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Bets Today

Rachaad White has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 33% ROI)

Sterling Shepard has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+6.35 Units / 84% ROI)

Emeka Egbuka has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 31% ROI)

Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 5 away games (+5.85 Units / 95% ROI)

Baker Mayfield has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today

Ollie Gordon II has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.65 Units / 58% ROI)

Ollie Gordon II has hit the Carries Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.10 Units / 83% ROI)

Devon Achane has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)

Devon Achane has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 32% ROI)

Ollie Gordon II has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 90% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Dolphins vs Buccaneers

Player Name

Over

Under

De’Von Achane (MIA)

28.5 -115

Emeka Egbuka (TB)

39.5 -115

Cade Otton (TB)

20.5 -120

20.5 -110

Malik Washington (MIA)

19.5 -118

19.5 -110

Jaylen Waddle (MIA)

58.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Dolphins vs Buccaneers

Player Name

Over

Under

De’Von Achane (MIA)

72.5 -110

72.5 -118

Buccaneers Best Bets:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.10 Units / 37% ROI)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.10 Units / 30% ROI)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+4.85 Units / 18% ROI)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 21 games (+3.70 Units / 16% ROI)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.90 Units / 14% ROI)

Dolphins Best Bets:

The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.35 Units / 42% ROI)

The Miami Dolphins have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.50 Units / 27% ROI)

The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games (+5.90 Units / 26% ROI)

The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+4.10 Units / 40% ROI)

The Miami Dolphins have covered the 4Q Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.95 Units / 56% ROI)

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers are 5-10 (-6.1 Units / -36.97% ROI).

Buccaneers are 7-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.7 Units / -22.09% ROI

Buccaneers are 8-7 when betting the Over for +0.3 Units / 1.82% ROI

Buccaneers are 7-8 when betting the Under for -1.8 Units / ROI

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 7-8 (-1.8 Units / -10.81% ROI).

Dolphins are 6-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.7 Units / 3.79% ROI

Dolphins are 8-5 when betting the Over for +2.5 Units / 15.15% ROI

Dolphins are 5-8 when betting the Under for -3.8 Units / -23.03% ROI

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 42% of plays on first read passes this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

The Buccaneers have averaged -0.60 epa per play on contested throws this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.09.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 35% of plays in the 4th quarter this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Buccaneers converted late downs on 2 of 8 plays (25%) with 7-10 yards to go in Week 16 — best in NFL; League Avg: 8%.

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Dolphins defense have allowed 20 broken tackles since Week 13 — most in NFL.

The Dolphins defense have forced three and outs on 46% of opponent drives in the 1st half since Week 13 — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Dolphins defense has allowed successful plays on 60% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

Offenses facing the Dolphins targeted WRs 49% of the time (222 Pass Attempts/449 plays) this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins