Performance in 1-Score Games
Here are some different conditions and overall performance of the defense in 1-score games (excluding games that are not close).
As we can see, the Rams defense performs the worst when the Rams have a 90%+ chance to win.
22% explosive rate… pic.twitter.com/eCxpoFGslo
— Josh (@JoshiosTweets) December 20, 2025
The Los Angeles Rams have one of the best defenses in the NFL. The unit ranks No. 6 in points allowed with a top-12 run defense through Week 16.
However, the Rams keep running into the same problem: They can’t close games on defense. Yes, the offense has been able to put up points when needed, but the defense has failed in critical moments. The team led in the fourth quarter in three of their four losses this season and led by 16 and 19 points in two of them. All four losses were for a combined 14 points, and all were by just one score.
NFL analytics reporter @JoshiosTweets on X compiled the Rams defense’s performance in different scenarios across every one-score game for L.A. (which there were eight) and found another troubling trend: The defense is at its worst when the game appears to be already won.
The Rams defense gives up its highest explosive rate, expected points added per play, success rate and yards when the team has at least a 75% chance to win the game. It gets even worse for games with a 90% chance to win (like the Seattle Seahawks loss in Week 16).
The defense is at its best, though, when the Rams are trailing and/or have less than a 50% chance to win. This should come as no surprise, given that’s where a defense can take the most risks and attack opponents more. But it doesn’t look like the Rams apply that same strategy when they’re leading, which has helped teams like Seahawks and the Philadelphia Eagles come back and win games.
Yes, some of the issues in those losses come down to the special teams. But the Rams had built up such a large lead in both those contests that the defense should have been able to make up for any issues on special teams.
The Rams have most of their strategy figured out. The team knows how to get up big with a good offense and a suffocating defense. But where they fail is stopping opponents when they’re already down and starting to get desperate — like in the losses to Seahawks and Eagles.
The Panthers’ loss is another example for a different reason. The Rams were never up by more than a score, but allowed the Panthers to stay in the game by allowing two big touchdown passes from Bryce Young in the second half — a 33-yarder to Jalen Coker and a 43-yarder to an uncovered Tetairoa McMillan. Both were devastating blows to the defense and opened the door for the Rams to get sloppy on offense.
The Rams don’t have many flaws, but this is the one that could hurt them the most in the playoffs if the trend continues.