NFL playoff picture: Broncos move closer to AFC West title and keep pace for No. 1 seed; Lions eliminated and Packers clinch

Here’s how the NFL playoff picture looks through the first three games of Week 17 on Christmas: The Detroit Lions were eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to the Minnesota Vikings, enabling the Green Bay Packers to clinch a spot. And the Denver Broncos kept pace in the AFC for the No. 1 seed and inched closer to the AFC West title.

The NFC playoff field is all set except for one slot: the NFC South champion, which is currently on pace to be the Carolina Panthers, but could still end up the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

(* Clinched playoff spot)

NFC

1. Seattle Seahawks (12-3)*: Remaining schedule — at Carolina Panthers, at San Francisco 49ers

NFC No. 1 seed-clinching scenario:

Seahawks win + Rams loss or tie + 49ers-Bears tie

NFC West-clinching scenarios:

Seahawks win + Rams loss or tie + 49ers loss or tie, OR

Seahawks tie + Rams loss + 49ers loss

Notable odds: Seattle has a 46% chance of holding onto the No. 1 seed and a 50% probability of winning the NFC West, according to The Athletic’s playoff predictor.

2. Chicago Bears (11-4)*: Remaining schedule — at San Francisco 49ers, vs. Detroit Lions

NFC North-clinching scenarios:

Notable odds: The Bears secured a playoff berth via the Lions’ loss to the Steelers on Sunday. Chicago’s overtime win over Green Bay also puts it in firm control of the NFC North, holding an 89% probability of winning the division, according to The Athletic. The Bears also have a 14% chance at the No. 1 overall seed.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-5)*: Remaining schedule — at Buffalo Bills, vs. Washington Commanders

Notable odds: The Eagles, back-to-back champs of the NFC East, have a less than 1% shot at clinching the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

4. Carolina Panthers (8-7): Remaining schedule — vs. Seattle Seahawks, at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC South-clinching scenarios:

Panthers win + Buccaneers loss or tie, OR

Panthers tie + Buccaneers loss

Notable odds: A big win over the Bucs moved Carolina into first place in the NFC South. The Panthers bumped up to 45% to win the division, according to The Athletic. They still have to play at Tampa Bay in the regular-season finale.

5. San Francisco 49ers (11-4)*: Remaining schedule — vs. Chicago Bears, vs. Seattle Seahawks

Notable odds: The 49ers clinched a postseason position via the Lions’ loss in Week 16. They also have about a 27% shot at the No. 1 seed in the conference, according to The Athletic. They simply need to win out, against the Bears and Seahawks, to secure the top seed and home-field advantage in the playoffs.

6. Los Angeles Rams (11-4)*: Remaining schedule — at Atlanta Falcons, vs. Arizona Cardinals

NFC West-clinching scenario: The Rams are already in the postseason field, but they will need some help to win the division crown and the conference’s No. 1 seed. L.A. needs, per RamsWire, to:

Beat Falcons and Cardinals, AND

Have Seahawks lose to Panthers and beat 49ers, AND

Have 49ers beat Bears and lose to Seahawks, AND

Notable odds: The Rams’ odds of clinching the No. 1 seed fell from 53% to 12% after Week 16’s results, per The Athletic.

7. Green Bay Packers* (9-5-1): Remaining schedule — vs. Baltimore Ravens, at Minnesota Vikings

NFC North-clinching scenario:

Win final two games + Bears lose final two games

Notable odds: The Packers clinched a playoff spot with the Lions’ loss to the Vikings on Christmas. But their shot at the NFC North is just 11%, according to The Athletic.

Still in the NFC picture

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8): Remaining schedule — at Miami Dolphins, vs. Carolina Panthers

Notable odds: While the loss to the Panthers drops Tampa Bay out of playoff position for the time being, the Bucs still have a 54% shot at winning the NFC South, per The Athletic. That’s because they face Carolina one more time and will hold the tiebreaker if they win that game.

AFC

1. Denver Broncos (13-3)*: Remaining schedule — vs. Los Angeles Chargers

AFC No. 1 seed-clinching scenario:

Chargers loss or tie + Patriots loss + Bills loss or tie + Jaguars loss or tie

AFC West-clinching scenarios:

Notable odds: Before Thursday’s victory, the Broncos were the favorite to secure the AFC’s No. 1 seed, at 46%, according to The Athletic. Denver was 73% to win the AFC West.

2. New England Patriots (12-3)*: Remaining schedule — at New York Jets, vs. Miami Dolphins

AFC East-clinching scenarios:

Patriots win + Bills loss or tie, OR

Patriots tie + Bills loss

Notable odds: The Patriots punched their playoff ticket by beating the Ravens on Sunday night. They are 82% likely to win the AFC East, per The Athletic, and they have a 38% shot at the No. 1 seed.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4)*: Remaining schedule — at Indianapolis Colts, vs. Tennessee Titans

AFC South-clinching scenarios:

Jaguars win + Texans loss or tie, OR

Jaguars tie + Texans loss

Notable odds: The Jags are officially in the playoffs via the Colts lost on Monday night. They’re also in firm control of the AFC South, with an 82% chance to win the division, per The Athletic. Sunday’s win over the Broncos also keeps Jacksonville in the running for the No. 1 seed at 12%.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6): Remaining schedule — at Cleveland Browns, vs. Baltimore Ravens

AFC North-clinching scenarios:

Notable odds: The Steelers are in firm control of the AFC North, with a 91% chance of winning the division, according to The Athletic.

5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-4)*: Remaining schedule — vs. Houston Texans, at Denver Broncos

Notable odds: The Chargers are in the postseason after the Colts lost on Monday. And suddenly, LA control its own path to an AFC West title if it wins out, including at the Broncos in the season finale. The Chargers are also alive for the No. 1 seed at 3%, according to The Athletic.

6. Buffalo Bills (11-4)*: Remaining schedule — vs. Philadelphia Eagles, vs. New York Jets

Notable odds: While Buffalo’s chances at catching up to New England to win the division title are still slim (19% according to The Athletic), the Bills are in the playoff field after the Colts lost on Monday.

7. Houston Texans (10-5): Remaining schedule — at Los Angeles Chargers, vs. Indianapolis Colts

Playoff-clinching scenarios:

Texans clinch strength of victory tiebreaker over Colts (Ravens win + Bills win + Chiefs win + 49er win + Falcons loss + Dolphins loss

Notable odds: The Texans are a near lock to make the playoffs but have just a 21% chance of winning the AFC South, per The Athletic.

Still in the AFC picture

8. Indianapolis Colts (8-7): Remaining schedule — vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, at Houston Texans

Playoff-clinching scenario:

Beat the Jaguars AND Texans in next two weeks AND Texans lose vs. the Chargers on Saturday.

Notable odds: The Colts are on the brink of elimination, with just a 2% shot at the playoffs, according to the Athletic, following Monday’s loss to the 49ers. A Texans victory on Saturday vs. the Chargers will end the Colts’ season.

9. Baltimore Ravens (7-8): Remaining schedule — at Green Bay Packers, at Pittsburgh Steelers

Notable odds: The Ravens’ playoff hopes took a big hit with Sunday night’s loss to the Patriots. They’re now at 10% to make the postseason, according to The Athletic.

Already eliminated

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs (6-10)

Cincinnati Bengals (5-10)

NFC

New Orleans Saints (5-10)

Washington Commanders (4-12)

NFL playoff picture: Broncos move closer to AFC West title and keep pace for No. 1 seed; Lions eliminated and Packers clinch

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