Welcome to the Friday Five!
Every week during the NFL regular season, I will drop five Patriots-related thoughts on Friday to recap the week that was in Foxboro and look ahead to kickoff.
Ready, set, football.
1. Need the No. 1 seed?
This isn’t about injuries.
Not entirely, anyway.
The Patriots did list 14 players on their initial injury report Wednesday, but Milton Williams appears on track to return Sunday, and Will Campbell should return in time for the playoffs. The fact Robert Spillane hasn’t been placed on injured reserve suggests he could — if not should — return then, too.
This is about the path.
The Patriots’ surest path to the Super Bowl is the shortest path, one that doesn’t stray from Foxboro until it’s time to fly to San Francisco for the Big Game. To stay home, the Pats need the No. 1 seed, which would require winning out. More than staying home, the real benefit of the No. 1 seed is skipping a potential coin-flip game in the Wild Card round versus Buffalo, Houston or the Chargers. Maybe even Jacksonville.
Frankly, the opponent doesn’t matter much because of how packed the conference is now, where you could make a case for three or four teams being best in the AFC (I, for the record, would take the Patriots when healthy). All AFC playoff games, from the Wild Card round to the conference championship, should be previewed by small point spreads because the three best teams in the conference rank fifth, sixth and eighth by the opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA. Even by point differential, the margins are thin, with the Pats (+110) holding slim leads over the Bills (+90), Texans (+97), Jaguars (+98) and Broncos (+67).
No matter your metric, there is no clear leader in the AFC. Remember: the Pats were 1.5-point underdogs at home versus the Bills just a few weeks ago, and Vegas was right.
By clinching the No. 1 seed and skipping the Wild Card round, the Patriots would statistically *double* their chances of making the Super Bowl, going from 12.5% to 25%, assuming their odds of winning each round are roughly 50/50. During that time, the Patriots can also rest up, return injured starters and close any talent gap they might face versus Denver or Houston.
Rest and a free pass feel like close to must-haves for a Super Bowl run, because it’s hard to envision any AFC team winning three straight playoff games, even the Patriots (they’re 2-2 against teams currently in the playoff picture). Bottom line: it’s a crowded race. Best to get a head start.
2. Hands like glue
New England Patriots wide receiver Mack Hollins runs against the Baltimore Ravens during the second half of an NFL game last Sunday in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough)
For the first time in years, the Patriots’ wide receivers are not a liability.
Stefon Diggs is on the precipice of another 1,000-yard season, while Mack Hollins, at age 32, has a career year within reach and Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas have leveled up. Together, they also share a type of boring superpower: sticky, sticky hands.
The Patriots own the second-lowest drop rate in the NFL at 2.6%, and they’re tied for the second-fewest total drops in the league at 12. Diggs is their only receiver with more than one drop this season, while Hollins has zero. The Pats have maximized their passing game thanks mostly to Maye’s Year 2 breakout, but his receivers are also wringing out everything they can from their talent.
In fact, the Patriot with the most drops this season isn’t even a receiver. It’s Hunter Henry, who has four.
3. 2026 staff changes
Whether a team wins the Super Bowl or fires its head coach midseason, offseason staff turnover is inevitable. The Patriots should be no different.
Vrabel is all but guaranteed to change coaches somewhere on his staff or be forced to find a replacement. Who might it be?
Speculating here, how about Thomas Brown? The Patriots’ first-ever passing game coordinator and tight ends coach has interviewed for head-coaching jobs before and worked twice as an NFL offensive coordinator. Considering the Patriots’ booming pass offense, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Brown — who’s on his fourth team in as many years and hasn’t worked for an NFL team or college program for longer than three years — fly the nest.
Speculating again, special teams coordinator Jeremy Springer may be a name to considered. The Patriots’ special teams rank 18th by DVOA, down from earlier in the season, and Springer was a rare holdover from the previous regime. Vrabel also promoted Springer’s assistant, Tom Quinn, to the head job in Tennessee after firing his special teams coordinator in Dec. 2023.
Vrabel could opt streamline his offensive line room where three coaches — Doug Marrone, Jason Houghtaling and Robert Kugler — lead that room. Across the league, three is an unusually high number of coaches involved in a single O-line room.
4. ‘You guys can laugh’
Back in the spring, Vrabel tried to relax players by telling them in a team meeting not to take themselves too seriously.
The story goes that he had noticed players tense up around him in the team cafeteria, and wanted them to know the new program, like him, would be tough and demanding, but allow for light moments. For the most part, Vrabel’s message seems to have reached players during a 12-3 season when many of them have lauded the team’s new culture.
Still, according to Drake Maye, it’s something Vrabel continues to emphasize as, with each passing week, the stakes rise for a team with serious aspirations in the playoffs..
“Yeah, it still happens in team meetings. (Vrabel) kind of uses some sarcasm and nobody really laughs, and he goes, ‘It’s funny. It’s OK. You guys can laugh,’” Maye said this week. “So yeah, I think it’s a tense feeling, but I think the more you got to know him and saw him coach, you kind of lost it and just respect him for wanting to coach us hard and wanting to win. That’s what he’s doing every day in this building.
“He’s carrying the same moxie and swagger, and he’s not going to change. We love that about Coach. We know he’s going to coach us hard, but we know he wants the best for us, and that’s what’s been needed.”
5. Media award
Patriots center Garrett Bradbury was honored with the 2025 Ron Hobson Good Guy award this week, an annual tradition carried on by local reporters to highlight a player who fulfills his media obligations with class and professionalism.
Bradbury is among several new veterans who have helped rebuild the team’s culture, and been candid in interviews while still protecting the team. One example came minutes after he accepted the award, and was asked if he believed a 12-3 start to the season would have been possible when he signed as a free agent back in March.
“No. No. It’s been an awesome year,” Bradbury said, before later adding: “You don’t want to forecast anything, but we’ve had a lot of fun.”
Hunter Henry, Stefon Diggs, Marcus Jones and Jaylinn Hawkins were the other top vote-getters this year.