Another week, another UGLY win. This time, Houston inched their way past the Las Vegas Raiders in one of the more mediocre performances in the DeMeco Ryans era. The offense looked stumped and the defensive line finally showed cracks. Whether the Texans are playing like a “playoff team” or not, they’re at the precipice of extending their season.
With two games to go, Houston’s chances to make the playoffs have never been higher. They sit at a 99% chance to make the playoffs and have a clear path to the postseason.
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AFC playoff standings
Playoff Spot
AFC Team
Record
Week 16 Opponent
Playoff Probability %
FIRST ROUND BYE
AFC West winner
DENVER BRONCOS
12-3
at Kansas City (Christmas Day)
Clinched playoffs
AFC East winner
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
12-3
at New York Jets
Clinched playoffs
AFC South winner
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
11-4
at Indianapolis
Clinched playoffs
AFC North winner
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
9-6
at Cleveland
94%
Wild Card Spot
LA CHARGERS
11-4
vs Houston
Clinched playoffs
Wild Card Spot
BUFFALO BILLS
11-4
vs Philadelphia
Clinched playoffs
Wild Card Spot
HOUSTON TEXANS
10-5
at Los Angeles Chargers
99%
In the Hunt
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
8-7
vs Jacksonville
1%
In the Hunt
BALTIMORE RAVENS
7-8
at Green Bay
6%
There is only one wild card spot available at this junction. The Texans have possession of it and can clinch with several scenarios.
Texans clinches at least a tie in strength of victory tiebreaker over IND
*Note: Texans needs the following to happen to clinch a tie in strength of victory with IND:
BAL win + BUF win + KC win + SF win + ATL loss + MIA loss
AFC South standings
Make Playoffs
Win Division
FIrst Round Bye
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (11-4)
CLINCHED
80%
7%
HOUSTON TEXANS (10-5)
99%
20%
1%
INDANAPOLIS COLTS (8-7)
1%
0%
1%
TENNESEE TITANS (3-12)
Eliminated
If Houston wins one of the next two games, they’ll knock the Colts out of the playoffs. That’s incredible considering the Colts were 8-2 and had a 98% chance to make the playoffs.
The Texans clawed their way to a Wild Card spot, but a chance at the AFC South title remains elusive. That’s because the Jacksonville Jaguars are the NFL’s hottest team. They’ve scored over 25 points in eight straight games including three four over 34 points. Jacksonville needs to lose one of the next two games against either the Colts or the Titans. Neither are quite likely to pull off an upset.
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Texans at Chargers Playoff Implications
Texans can clinch a playoff spot with a win or tie over the Chargers. They’d jump from the 7th seed to the 6th seed, which could mean they would likely face the Jaguars in the first round. The Bolts clinched last week due to the Colts loss against the 49ers.
Week 17 NFL Matchups to Watch
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 1:05 EST)
Major implications for both sides of the coin. If the Jags win, they all but secure the division, but essentially get the Texans in the playoffs. However, a Colts win would give Houston the three seed in the playoffs… if they beat the Chargers. Either way, Houston gains something with a win. If Houston does lose to the Chargers, the Texans will want the Jags to win so Houston can clinch the playoffs.
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Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (Sunday, 1:25 EST)
Huge implications. If Houston beats the Chargers and the Eagles beat the Bills, then the Texans would jump all the way from the seventh seed to the fifth. That would be the most ideal matchup as the 4th seed Pittsburgh Steelers are far-and-away the optimal opponent in the first round. Of course, this game only means something if the Texans can actually beat the Chargers on Saturday.
Houston Texans’ Remaining Schedule:
at Chargers (11-4)
vs Colts (8-7)