Jenna LaineDec 26, 2025, 04:34 AM

CloseJenna Laine covers the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for ESPN. She started covering the Bucs for ESPN in 2016, but she has covered the team since 2009. Jenna is a former cheerleader at the University of South Florida and speaks to the consistency of the program as being one of the top best in the nation.

TAMPA, Fla. — The Tampa Bay Buccaneers spent the first half of the season either sitting at or near the top of the NFC and steadily held a two-game lead over the rest of the NFC South with a 6-2 record.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield was lauded for his historic come-from-behind victories and the defense for making critical stops to secure them. Mayfield even established himself as the early favorite for the MVP award.

Fast-forward to Week 17, and after dropping six of their past seven games — including three straight losses to divisional opponents — they’re just fighting to avoid playoff elimination.

Only a division title would secure a playoff berth for the Bucs (7-8). To get it, they need to win against the Carolina Panthers (8-7) in Week 18, and if Carolina wins in Week 17, Tampa Bay would also need to beat the Miami Dolphins on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, Fox).

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“Our back is against the wall,” Mayfield said. “[We are] pretty comfortable there.”

To his point, in 2024 the Bucs had to win six of their last seven games to get to the postseason after a 4-6 start. They finished the regular season with a 10-7 record. In 2023, after a 4-7 start, they won five of their last six games to finish 9-8 and win the division again.

But the hopes of them pulling away to win the division after the returns of wide receivers Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan and running back Bucky Irving have not panned out.

“I would love for us to be in a different spot than we’re in right now, don’t get me wrong,” Mayfield said. “We’ve been here before, and you can always rely on those experiences and take what you’ve learned and go from there, but I trust this group. It hasn’t been our best play by any means, I know that, we all know that, but we can still accomplish everything we want to.”

As coach Todd Bowles put it, “We understand we control our own destiny, but our biggest enemy right now is us.”

The past three weeks have been marred by miscues. The Panthers game in Week 16 ended on miscommunication between Mayfield and Evans that resulted in an interception. Evans thought Mayfield was scrambling when he was in fact stepping up into his throw. Mayfield was also picked off against the Falcons in the previous week on a pass intended for Evans in the fourth quarter.

The defense is certainly at fault, too. It surrendered a 22-yard touchdown and a 10-6 lead to Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan with 12 seconds left in the half. There was a blown 28-14 lead over the Falcons in the fourth quarter. And there were three missed tackles on Saints quarterback Tyler Shough‘s scrambling 13-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter (four if you count cornerback Zyon McCollum at the pylon) in Week 14. The team also had seven penalties in the fourth quarter of the Panthers game alone.

The coaching staff is not immune, either. Bowles thought running the ball more than 30 times against the Panthers would be the Bucs’ formula to victory despite being down both starting guards.

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“It was a formula for us that worked last year,” Bowles said. “Last year we had [40] and [39] rushes against them [in two wins]. When you win the game, it’s different; when you lose the game …”

But he didn’t acknowledge that the Panthers’ run defense had gone from a league-worst 179.82 rushing yards surrendered per game to giving up just 119.53 rushing yards per game (19th).

“I mean, here is the thing, you look at statistically — and I’m not a numbers guy — but you look at if you run the ball over 30 times against them, I think they were 2-15,” Mayfield said. “That was the message: We’re going to be physical, and we’re going to run the ball.”

Left tackle Tristan Wirfs reiterated that stat as well. But it didn’t include the context that teams run the ball to preserve leads when games are out of reach. In the six losses the Panthers have had this year to teams running the ball 30 or more times, teams have run the ball an average of nine times per game against them in the fourth quarter. In one-possession games in the fourth quarter, that number drops to 3.7 rushing attempts. And, in all of those losses, only one of them — their Week 2 loss to the Arizona Cardinals — was lost by eight points or fewer.

It should also be noted that heading into this game, the Bucs were 2-2 (now 2-3) this season when rushing 30 or more times in a game. Still, Mayfield points to execution.

“Obviously, we didn’t end up on the winning side of it — if we end up [executing on] that two-minute drive, then nobody is really talking about it,” Mayfield said. “Hindsight is twenty-twenty, the message was to be more physical and run the ball and execute, but then when we have our chance in the pass game, we need to throw it and execute as well.”

The Bucs’ 4.8 points per game in the fourth quarter on offense are second lowest in the league, ahead of only the Cleveland Browns, and they’ve surrendered 7.3 points per game in the fourth quarter (21st). Their 32 penalties in the fourth quarter are sixth most in the league, and so are their 104 penalties as a whole for four quarters. All these things add up for a team that won by such razor-thin margins at the beginning the season.

“Our goals are still right in front of us,” Mayfield said. “Would we like to be in a different position? Yeah, we would have liked to close this thing out by now, but that’s not where we’re at. We have to win at Miami and then come back home. Our focus right now is doing everything we possibly can to find a way to win in Miami and see what happens from there.”