In a game of NFL tank chess, the Las Vegas Raiders have shut down tight end Brock Bowers and safety Jeremy Chinn for the season, and the New York Giants have held out several key players from practice. The Giants and Raiders are certainly aware of the 2026 draft implications of their Week 17 game.
Las Vegas needs a young quarterback who can lead the team to a bright future. Big Blue can take the best player available to help rookie signal-caller Jaxson Dart‘s development or trade the pick for a massive haul in the early stages of a rebuild.
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While players don’t care about tanking for a draft pick, front offices certainly do, which is evident by the number of veterans who have or will go on injured reserve before Sunday’s game. Let’s take a look at what the impact of winning and losing in Week 17 does for the Raiders’ 2026 NFL Draft position.
If the LV Raiders Lose to the NY Giants
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The Raiders and Giants have the same 2-13 records, and they’re the two worst teams in the league. Following Sunday’s game, the loser of this contest will be in sole possession of the No. 1 overall pick.
As for this contest, the Giants became slight favorites after the Raiders placed Bowers on injured reserve. Running back Raheem Mostert didn’t practice on Wednesday because of ankle and knee injuries. Maxx Crosby has been managing a knee issue, which is why he’s sat out practices in recent weeks.
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Oddly enough, head coach Pete Carroll told reporters he would like to have Kolton Miller back on the field. The 30-year-old left tackle hasn’t played since Week 4 because of ankle injuries. He’s had limited practice time in recent weeks.
With the No. 1 overall pick at stake, Las Vegas should consider shutting down Miller as well. For a Raiders team with a need at quarterback, there’s too much at stake. They won’t gain much by activating one of their best players who’s at less than 100 percent.
Raiders Could Fall to No. 5 Spot With Win
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If the Raiders beat the Giants, they could fall as low as No. 5 in the draft order. Keep in mind that the Cleveland Browns (No. 3), New York Jets (No. 4), Tennessee Titans (No.5), and Arizona Cardinals (No. 6) are behind Las Vegas (No. 2).
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Since Tennessee (.573) and Arizona (.576) have stronger strength of schedules than Las Vegas (.543), the Raiders wouldn’t fall behind those teams even if those clubs lost on Sunday.
Because the NFL draft order is determined by strength of schedule and not head-to-head matchups, the Raiders would pick ahead of the Titans if the teams finish with the same record, even though Las Vegas beat Tennessee in Week 6.
Looking Ahead to Week 18
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Regardless of the outcome of the Giants and Raiders’ upcoming contest, the 2026 draft order won’t be set until Week 18. Las Vegas will host the Kansas City Chiefs in its season finale, which will also have significant draft implications.
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By the end of the season, Las Vegas can’t fall lower than the No. 7 spot. At best, from a record standpoint, the Raiders can finish 4-13, so they won’t fall behind the New Orleans Saints, who have five wins. With two wins and two losses for the Titans, Cardinals, and Washington Commanders, the Raiders would fall to No. 7, which would likely knock them out of range for a top quarterback prospect.
Keep in mind that the Browns, Jets, and Cardinals may all consider taking a quarterback in the first round. According to The Athletic’s Dianna Russini, Arizona could move on from quarterback Kyler Murray.
The Chiefs are starting third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun. They’ve placed cornerback Trent McDuffie (knee) and wide receivers Rashee Rice (concussion) and Tyquan Thornton (concussion) on injured reserve. If the Raiders are shutting down players with the No. 1 pick in mind, they will have to out-tank the Chiefs as well.
Maurice Moton covers the Raiders for Sportsnaut. You can follow him on Twitter at @MoeMoton.Â
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