Rico Dowdle has been one of the most important reasons the Carolina Panthers are sitting atop the NFC South. He’s produced a 1,000-yard rushing season, stabilized the offense during Bryce Young’s growth, and given Dave Canales exactly the kind of physical, tone-setting runner this team lacked a year ago.

And yet, as good as Dowdle has been, Panthers fans may want to brace themselves for the possibility that this season is also his last in Carolina.

Dowdle’s 2025 season is the kind that gets running backs paid. Often, this comes from a team they’re not currently on.

Carolina Panthers have a massive decision to make with Rico Dowdle before free agency

After opening the year behind Chuba Hubbard, Dowdle seized his opportunity in Week 5 and never let go. Since becoming a starter, he’s been one of the league’s more efficient runners, currently with 1,007 rushing yards on 4.6 yards per carry and over 1,280 yards from scrimmage.

His best stretch — back-to-back 180-plus yard games against the Miami Dolphins and Dallas Cowboys — showcased a runner who can carry an offense when asked. All of that is great for Carolina in the short term. But it’s also precisely why Dowdle’s market value may soon exceed what the Panthers are willing (or able) to pay.

Dowdle is playing on a one-year, $3 million deal and is set to hit free agency in 2026. According to ESPN’s David Newton, the Panthers haven’t initiated extension talks. That silence is telling.

Carolina already has significant money tied up in Chuba Hubbard, who remains involved as a 1B option. The front office is also still invested in Jonathon Brooks, who could return from his second ACL tear next season.

From a cap-building perspective, committing starter money to another running back may feel redundant, even if Dowdle has clearly earned it.

Meanwhile, teams with cap flexibility and backfield uncertainty are watching. The Denver Broncos stand out if J.K. Dobbins walks. The Arizona Cardinals have space and no established lead back. For a 27-year-old runner coming off a career year, those situations are hard to ignore.

None of this diminishes what Dowdle has meant to the Panthers in 2025. If anything, it highlights it. He’s been dependable, productive, and a perfect fit for Canales’ offense.

But running back careers are short, and Carolina’s long-term plans at the position are already crowded. Dowdle has done everything asked of him and more, enough to earn a bigger deal somewhere else.

The Panthers are focused on a playoff push. Dowdle is focused on that, too. Still, once the season ends, fans may realize that the same breakout year that helped Carolina win now could quietly push one of their most valuable pieces out the door.