The optimist’s perspective of a four-month college football season and the playoffs that ensue suggest that the teams left alive to play for a championship have seen it all or done it all on the paths that led them there.
The pessimist’s perspective — or, save for maybe those who played the toughest schedules in the SEC or Big 10, the realist’s perspective — suggests that there are few ideal regular season comparisons for the nation’s elite teams that stand in the way of advancement.
It’s not an unexpected or unfair phenomena, either, but it’s the situation that Texas Tech will find itself in as it continues to prepare for one of the most important games in program history.
Have the Red Raiders seen something like Oregon’s hardened offensive line that’s been among the nation’s best? Maybe BYU or Utah, dependent on who you ask. What about their projected first-round pick at quarterback? That elicited a “not really” from safety Cole Wisniewski and a heap of praise about how Dante Moore is “his own character.” How about the tight end group that’s scored double-digit touchdowns this year? The best comparison that linebacker Ben Roberts could offer was Kansas State’s unit “from previous seasons.”
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“We’ve played some good teams from an offensive skill standpoint,” defensive coordinator Shiel Wood said Saturday afternoon. “These guys are as probably good as any team that we’ve played against.”
That’s what happens when the talent and production evolves into a best-on-best with eight teams left alive in the College Football Playoff field. That’s what the No. 4 Red Raiders (12-1) and the No. 5 Ducks (12-1) will heave against each other in Thursday’s Orange Bowl at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium with a trip to the national semifinals on the line.
It’s just a matter of which team’s premier unit can create the most sizable advantage over the other. Because the Ducks, whose best win against Penn State might’ve been closer to fools gold, may need to ask themselves the same questions of comparison when they prepare for Tech’s defense.
Tech’s defense may inarguably be the single-best unit in the entire playoff field and has been responsible for the historic postseason run. Their 96.9 overall grade, per Pro Football Focus, is the nation’s best. Their run defense, pass rush and coverage grades are, too. They allowed just 17 touchdowns total this season and only three to ranked teams. They held BYU scoreless for three-plus quarters in the Big 12 Championship Game after the Cougars threw the kitchen sink at them on their first and only touchdown drive.
They’ll meet their offensive counterparts in Miami Thursday afternoon.
It’s unlike anything the Red Raiders have seen yet.
The Ducks might be the closest match to the Red Raiders in terms of high-level balance across the board of their offense. Their 93.0 offense grade, per PFF, is the third-best in the country. Their passing offense, rushing offense and pass block grades are either first or second. They steamrolled James Madison in the first round — which Roberts acknowledged created a slight challenge to learn from given the talent gap between the two — and will bring a decade-plus track record of explosivity and speed to the table against a defense that’s undergone a significant facelift in one year.
“They’re explosive, they can run the ball really well, they can throw the ball down the field very well, they’ve got great personnel,” Wood said. “I think, schematically, their coaches do a great job of creating a lot of conflict for you in the run game and the passing game.”
The Red Raiders bullied competition at the line of scrimmage this season, led the Big 12 in sacks and boast an All-American edge rusher in David Bailey who’s in line to be among the first defenders drafted this spring. Wood said that Oregon’s offensive line is “very similar” to Utah’s. Linebacker Romello Height compared it to BYU’s. Those units stymied Tech’s front seven better than anyone else this season. The Red Raiders totaled just four sacks in three games against Utah and BYU but averaged nearly four per game in their other nine contests.
The Ducks have allowed 14 sacks all season thanks to an offensive line anchored by a tackle (Isaiah World) and guard (Emmanuel Pregnon) that are expected to be selected in next spring’s NFL draft. Top-ranked Indiana was responsible for six of those sacks in Oregon’s lone regular season loss.
“All we can do is go out and play good football and play good ball,” Height said. “Maybe we could get, you know, 6 sacks, 10 sacks. As long as we play good ball, then it could go either way.”
If it goes one way — like, say, if Moore is left untouched and given time to operate within the pocket — the gap between the two widens. Moore has a 25-to-6 touchdown to interception ratio when kept clean this season and his performance with or without a blitz in his face is relatively similar. He was pressured 16 times in Oregon’s loss to the Hoosiers and completed only half of his passes under duress. Against James Madison, which was statistically the second-best defense that the Ducks played this season, Moore was kept clean 85.2% of the time and passed for 240 yards on only 23 drop backs.
Tight end Kenyon Sadiq, another projected first-round pick, caught eight of Moore’s touchdowns this season and will be the focal point of a linebacker room that includes All-American Jacob Rodriguez. The Ducks have five other receivers that have caught at least 25 passes this season, though, and could stand to improve between now and Thursday’s game.
Wide receiver Evan Stewart — a former Frisco Liberty standout who caught 48 passes for 613 yards and 5 touchdowns last year — has missed the entirety of this season with a torn patellar tendon but could be cleared to return for the quarterfinal game. Red Raiders cornerback Brice Pollack said that they’ve been “watching a little tape” on the former five-star recruit in the instance that he does suit up.
It’s just another wrinkle for the Red Raiders to keep an eye on.
Not that they’d expect anything less this deep into the season.
“They’re going to put them in [favorable] situations,” assistant head coach and special teams coordinator Kenny Perry said. “We’re going to put ourselves in the same thing. They’ve got to prepare for us as well.”
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