Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 17’s game between the Tennessee Titans and the New Orleans Saints.

Nashville gets a Week 17 that feels like a tryout and a verdict at the same time. Tyler Shough (QB) and Cam Ward (QB) aren’t placeholders, so nobody is calling it safe, even if the standings aren’t the headline. New Orleans arrives with a little late-season pulse, the kind that comes when the tape finally looks organized and the locker room stops bracing for the next mistake. Tennessee plays for proof of concept, not moral victories, and the crowd can feel the difference between “young” and “ready.” This is the kind of game where every third-and-six rep becomes a résumé line, and every red-zone snap turns into a coaching point on Monday. Taysom Hill (QB) being active puts a live wire back in the Saints’ red-zone wiring, because he’s the one package that can steal a touchdown when the offense bogs down. That extra layer also cranks up the tension for Tennessee’s defense, because it has to tackle power football and defend play-action off it on the same drive. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 17’s game between the Tennessee Titans and the New Orleans Saints.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The team math supports a tight, low-scoring game where one or two snaps decide everything. New Orleans sits at -0.108 EPA/play on the season and improves to -0.077 over the last six, with passing efficiency climbing to -0.033. Tennessee starts worse at -0.149 EPA/play, but it has improved harder to -0.064 lately, and the run game has flipped into positive territory. The Titans go from -0.066 EPA/rush to +0.015 over the last six, and that surge is the Tony Pollard (RB) and Tyjae Spears (RB) ecosystem working the way Tennessee wants it to. Pollard has been the tone-setter lately with three straight 100-yard rushing games, and that kind of steady early-down success is how you keep a young quarterback out of obvious passing downs. Spears matters as the change-up because he can keep the same run looks alive while adding speed to the perimeter and bite in the screen game. That duo is why Tennessee can live in second-and-medium and actually keep its play-action and quick-game menu intact.

The Saints are the opposite right now. New Orleans sits at -0.143 EPA/rush over the last six, and that matters more with Alvin Kamara out, because the Saints lose their easiest efficiency band and their best pressure valve. Without Kamara, the early-down run game becomes more about avoiding negative plays than creating edges, and it puts more of the offense on Tyler Shough (QB) staying clean. The Saints can still manufacture rush value through Taysom Hill (QB) packages, because Hill changes the math on short yardage, forces heavier boxes, and lets New Orleans steal first downs without winning every block. Hill also matters because the Saints have been a red-zone grind all season, sitting at 31.3% red-zone touchdowns and a 40.6% red-zone field goal rate. They have improved to 54.5% red-zone touchdowns over the last six, but the goal-to-go profile still looks brittle. New Orleans is 1-for-5 in goal-to-go touchdowns on the season, and it has no margin for wasted snaps near the stripe. Tennessee has been the opposite recently, sitting at a 70.0% red-zone touchdown rate over the last six, and that pairs cleanly with a Pollard-led run game that can actually finish drives instead of just starting them.

The player story starts with Chris Olave (WR), because he’s the one guy who can bend a plan by himself. He’s at 1,044 yards on 92 catches with eight touchdowns and 1.87 yards per route, and he still lives on an 11.9 aDOT diet. The Saints’ receiver room has been steadier than Tennessee’s, sitting at 2,142 yards, 197 catches, 12 touchdowns, a 65.0% catch rate, and 1.28 yards per route. That steadiness has held lately, with Saints wideouts at 879 yards, 74 catches, six touchdowns, and 1.31 yards per route over the last six, and that stability matters even more when the run game can’t carry its share. Tennessee’s perimeter group has been shakier, sitting at 1,564 yards, 137 catches, eight touchdowns, a 52.7% catch rate, and 0.99 yards per route. It gets even thinner recently, with Titans wideouts down at 512 yards, 49 catches, five touchdowns, and 0.85 yards per route over the last six. Elic Ayomanor (WR) leads with 428 yards and three scores, but he’s fighting a 47.2% catch rate and 0.99 yards per route. Chimere Dike (WR) brings the possession profile with 41 catches and four touchdowns, yet he’s still at 0.99 yards per route, so Tennessee needs Pollard and Spears to keep linebackers honest and keep third downs manageable.

That’s why Tennessee’s tight ends feel like the real stabilizer in this matchup, especially against a Saints defense that has turned almost fully zone. New Orleans has shifted to 91.3% zone over the last six, with blitz rate down to 11.7%, asking the front to win and the coverage to rally. Tennessee’s tight ends have answered with efficiency and clean hands, sitting at 866 yards on 96 catches with a 78.7% catch rate and 1.41 yards per route. Over the last six, that group climbs to 397 yards on 46 catches with 1.56 yards per route and an 80.7% catch rate. That chain-moving profile plays even better when Pollard is forcing safety fits and when Spears is threatening the edge, because it keeps zone eyes from squatting on hooks. It also pairs with Tennessee’s recent protection solutions. The Titans have faced more heat lately, with blitz rate faced jumping to 34.4%, and they’ve responded by going faster. Their quick throw rate rises to 56.5%, their sack rate allowed drops to 4.6%, and their pressure-to-sack rate allowed falls to 13.3% over the last six.

Saints vs. Titans pick, best bet

The counterargument is real, and it’s the cleanest reason New Orleans can walk out with the win. The Saints have been better play to play, and the third-down jump is loud. They climb to 45.1% on third downs over the last six, while Tennessee sits at 35.7%. Olave also gives New Orleans the one matchup cheat that can override coverage tendencies, and the Saints’ tight ends have been efficient too, posting 457 yards on 46 catches with 1.50 yards per route in the last six. Tennessee’s defense has improved dramatically in the same window, but it still carries volatility in the pass profile. The Titans sit at +0.303 EPA/pass allowed on the season, then tighten to +0.019 over the last six, so the Saints can argue for an Olave-driven day if that improvement proves fragile. New Orleans can also create its own swing plays on defense, because pressure created rises to 38.3% lately with a 9.6% sack rate created. If the Saints win a couple third-and-medium snaps and steal one short field, the favorite script becomes obvious.

Tennessee should play this like a compressed-field game because New Orleans’ explosives have fallen to 4.0% over the last six. The Titans should keep living in two-high shells, because their two-high rate has risen to 61.1% lately, and it forces the Saints to earn every yard. Tennessee should rush with four as often as possible, because 51.0% pressure without blitz lets it bracket Olave and still hunt sacks. On offense, Tennessee should stay married to quick rhythm throws because its quick throw rate is 56.5% lately, and New Orleans is sitting in 91.3% zone. That plan should funnel targets to the tight ends and invite YAC instead of contested perimeter balls. New Orleans should counter by leaning into Hill packages and condensed sets because the goal-to-go numbers have been disastrous, and Kamara is unavailable. The Saints also need early-down efficiency through Olave because their run EPA has cratered to -0.143 lately, and long-yardage invites the Titans’ pressure spike. In that shape, the final hinge is simple: Tennessee finishes red-zone trips at 70.0% lately, and that’s enough to steal a one-score game outright.

I’m still taking Titans moneyline at +114 on DraftKings because the leverage points align with Tennessee’s most repeatable edges, even with Hill active. The Titans have generated a 51.0% pressure rate created over the last six, and they’ve done it while blitzing only 18.4%, which keeps coverage intact and invites sacks through patience. The Saints have improved pressure allowed to 33.2% lately, yet they’ve become more sack-prone anyway. Their sack rate allowed rises to 9.2%, and pressure-to-sack jumps to 27.8%, which is where drives die without needing turnovers. Hill being active trims that risk by shrinking dropback volume in the highest-leverage downs, so the Saints’ touchdown equity improves. The low total of 39.5 still makes the plus-money side attractive, because one red-zone stop or one third-down sack can flip the winner. I expect Tennessee to win the finishing battle, not the box score.

My predicted score: Titans 20, Saints 17.

Best bet: Titans (+115) vs. Saints

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I’m playing Chris Olave 7+ receptions at +165 because the Saints’ offense is built to survive through completions, not fireworks. Over the last six games, New Orleans has climbed to a 45.1% third-down rate, which keeps the target faucet on for its best separator. The Saints’ pass efficiency has also stabilized to -0.033 EPA/pass lately, even while the run game has sagged to -0.143 EPA/rush, and that imbalance quietly forces more throw volume in the downs that matter. Tennessee’s defense has improved, but its recent two-high lean at 61.1% is designed to cap cheap touchdowns, not erase catches. That invites the “take what’s there” day where Olave stacks eight-yard wins until the box score looks heavy. With Taysom Hill active, New Orleans should extend more drives through short-yardage packages, and extra plays are the oxygen for a reception ladder. Olave already owns the Saints’ receiving identity with 92 catches on the season, and I want plus money on the cleanest, highest-floor path in this game.

Best prop lean: Chris Olave 7+ receptions (+165)

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