The Jacksonville Jaguars have made an insane comeback this season. They started at the bottom of the AFC South this season, partly due to their own issues and partly due to the Indianapolis Colts’ resurgence. With the Colts dropping off as of late, though, the Jaguars took advantage and went on a six-game winning streak to take control of the division and clinch a playoff spot.
Now, the Jaguars could aim for something much higher than many expected them to fight for. The first seed in both conferences is highly sought-after, as it awards teams a first-round bye in the postseason. Jacksonville could potentially still win the first seed, but the path to get there is a bit murky.
What are the Jaguars’ odds of winning the AFC’s first seed based on the top playoff prediction models? Let’s look at The Athletic, FTN, and ESPN’s models to see what they think about Jacksonville’s push for a first-round bye.
Jaguars’ odds of winning the first seed
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There are a few teams that Jaguars fans need to keep an eye on in the race for the top seed in the AFC. The Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots own the first and the second seed in the AFC, currently. The Jags also share the same record as the Buffalo Bills.
The current playoff prediction models don’t really give a good chance for the Jaguars to take the first seed. ESPN’s Football Power Index, FTN’s DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value over Average), and The Athletic’s Playoff Prediction Simulator all give Jacksonville around an 8-9% chance to win the first seed and get a bye to the Divisional Round. That’s slightly better odds than the Bills, but far below those of the Patriots and the Broncos.
Jaguars’ path to the first seed
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So how do the Jaguars get to the first seed in the AFC? Well, the first step is going to be for them to win out the rest of their schedule: an away game against the Colts this week then a home game against the Tennessee Titans in the final week of the season. Even if the Bills end up tied with the Jaguars, their better in-conference record means that they’ll be seeded first over Buffalo.
Winning the next two games is not going to be enough, though. The other relevant game this week for the Jaguars is the game between the Patriots and the New York Jets. A loss by the Patriots is the most optimal outcome for Jacksonville, as they’d only need the Broncos to lose to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 18 to get the first seed.
Should the Patriots win, though, there’s still a minuscule chance for the Jaguars to win the first seed. However, that would require another Broncos loss next week, as well as a Patriots loss to the Miami Dolphins.
It’s obviously an improbable path for the Jaguars. With how the Patriots have played this season, it’s hard to see them losing to either the Jets this week or the Dolphins. New England beat the Jets 27-14 in a game that was more lopsided than the scoreline showed. Their game against the Dolphins was much closer (27-33), but that was also before the Pats found their groove and before Tua Tagovailoa was benched.
The Broncos have looked surprisingly beatable this season, so a Chargers upset isn’t that impossible. The Jaguars have also looked good against the Colts (36-19 a few weeks ago) and the Titans (25-3) this season, so they have that going for them. However, their fate isn’t in their hands at all. They’ll need to root for some major upset this season to have a fighting chance for the first seed.