The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Indianapolis Colts players heading into their matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars to help you craft a winning lineup.
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Philip Rivers, QB
There was the pick-6 that removed all doubt from Monday night against the 49ers, but Philip Rivers went toe-to-toe with Brock Purdy for far longer than any of us expected.
He finished the night with 277 passing yards and two scores, both to Alec Pierce. He completed nine of 13 passes in the first quarter, executing what was laid out in front of him at a high level. The interesting part for me is how he’s done against the blitz.
My instinct would be to heat up an old QB like this that lacks mobility and arm strength. But in his two games, he’s 10-of-13 with a TD when the defense sends an extra man.
If defenses instead opt to sit back in coverage, Rivers is less likely to beat them with experience and thus potentially struggle. Anthony Richardson (eye) was designated to return from IR on Thursday, so that’s a moving piece in the evaluation of this offense, but you’re not counting on this passing game if you can help it.
And you very much can help it.
Jonathan Taylor, RB
Game script worked away from Jonathan Taylor, with the 49ers cooking for the entire game and an early special teams turnover putting the Colts behind the eight ball.
These are the games that separate the good from the great at the position.
It would have been easy for JT to fail, but instead, due to his versatile role on this team, he finishes the 21-point loss with 79 yards and a touchdown.
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He probably didn’t give you the boost you were hoping for, but he salvaged his week, and that’s sometimes just as important. Taylor now has 10 games with at least three receptions and has multiple red zone touches in 11 straight.
The limitations of this offense cap his ceiling projection, but the baseline remains that of a top 10 option at the position. His elite days got you to your championship: he can steady the ship this week, but you’ll likely need to get the game-breaking performance elsewhere.
Josh Downs, WR
Josh Downs scored a touchdown in the first game of the second Rivers era and earned a quarter of the targets in the second game.
He’s clawed his way to double-figure PPR points in both contests, and while that’s not exactly high-end production, it’s enough to earn him the top ranking in this receiver room.
That, of course, doesn’t require you to start him. The Jags are the fifth-best per-play defense since Week 7, and if I have any sort of similar option, I’m avoiding this offense as a whole.
Tyler Warren, TE
Tyler Warren’s fantasy production has very much hit a wall (three games under seven PPR points), but with his target share increasing each game over that stretch, there is a path for him to make it back to the top 12 sooner than later.
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That said, this offense is struggling with consistency, and that’s held the versatile rookie to just one end zone target over his past eight games.
Warren isn’t the auto-start he once was, and he caught just two passes on 37 routes in this meeting in Week 14. There’s risk to weigh, but that’s the case for roughly 25 of the starting tight ends in the league.
Sign me up for a TE13 ranking, in that Jake Ferguson (at WAS) and Hunter Henry (at NYJ) tier.