The New England Patriots have exceeded expectations this season and are on the verge of winning their first AFC title since 2019. The Patriots will look to notch their 13th victory in 16 games when they visit the New York Jets on Sunday. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET.
If New England can take care of business against the 3-12 Jets as expected, and the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Buffalo Bills, the Patriots will win the division.
It will be the first time that New England has taken the AFC East crown since Tom Brady’s final season with the team.
The Patriots are marching into this matchup on a 10-game winning streak, which is tied for the third longest in team history. They are the first team in NFL history to win 10 consecutive games with at least 23 points scored and 23-or-less points allowed in each game.
New York has lost five of its last six games and lost to New England in Week 11 this season, 27-14. The Patriots have won the last two games vs. the Jets after New York had prevailed in two consecutive matchups.
Patriots vs. Jets predictions and best betsPatriots -13.5: -112 at DraftKingsUnder 42.5 Points: -112 at DraftKingsRhamondre Stevenson 2+ TDs: +290 at DraftKings
In most cases, I would refrain from picking the favorite to win on such a large spread in a divisional game. But the lowly Jets’ decision-makers are doing all they can to increase the likelihood of losses to end the season as the team positions itself for a top draft pick.
You usually cannot accuse players of “tanking”, because they are still competing for contract incentives and job security or opportunities going forward.
But the Jets are putting the most inferior product possible on the field late in the season. Their best offensive player and top two quarterbacks are being held out of action.
New England won’t have to score a ton of points here to coast to a victory, which is one reason why I am recommending the under. Another reason is that New York has scored 36 points in its last three games.
The odds for Stevenson as an Anytime TD Scorer are -180, so we want a wager with a better possible payout.
If TreVeyon Henderson (concussion) is out, I like the two-TD play even better. Stevenson can still be a formidable goal-line presence in this game even if he shares the workload.
Patriots vs. Jets moneyline analysisWhy the Patriots could win as the favorite
Best odds: -900 at BetMGM
In regular circumstances, you would likely not wager on the moneyline here, as there isn’t much of a return at all. But when you are considering welcome offers from the best sportsbooks in Massachusetts, the odds might fit a promotion where you have to win on the first bet to unlock bonuses.
There are many good reasons to at least ride with the Patriots to cover the spread. Drake Maye is coming off a career-best 380-yard performance, and he passed for 281 yards in his first meeting with the Jets this season. The Jets’ defense will spend too much time on the field, and Maye should carve the unit up on his way to a smooth win.
New England is dealing with some notable injuries at wide receiver, yet Maye can lean heavily on Stefon Diggs, who caught nine passes for 105 yards in the first meeting of the season with the Jets.
K’Lavon Chaisson will likely terrorize the Jets’ offense. He had a tackle for a loss and forced a fumble last week. He recovered a fumble in Week 11 vs. New York.
Why the Jets could win as the underdog
Best odds: +600 at BetMGM
If there is any hope for the Jets to pull off a shocking victory, it is tied to the fact that unlikely results have a better chance of becoming reality in divisional matchups.
New York would have to suddenly and surprisingly fare better against AFC East rivals. The Jets have lost three of four divisional games by 20-plus points.
The coaching staff and players might be well aware that the defense has set an NFL record by going 15 consecutive games without an interception. Pride could spur the defensive unit to perform above expectations in an effort to play spoiler against the Patriots.
To have a chance of sticking close, Breece Hall must take the team on his shoulders and produce even better than usual. He has registered 75-plus scrimmage yards and a TD in two of his last three home games.
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