The Jacksonville Jaguars travel to face the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday in Week 17 with kickoff set for 1 p.m. ET. The Texans win over the Chargers on Saturday officially eliminated the Colts from playoff contention. Meanwhile the Jaguars are headed to the playoffs for the first time since 2022. Jacksonville cannot clinch anything in Week 17, but a win would be of use from a seeding perspective.

The Jaguars are a 5.5-point road favorite in this game. Here’s exactly what the game means their playoff positioning.

Jacksonville Jaguars playoff picture

The Jaguars clinched a playoff berth last week. They are 11-4 and sit atop the AFC South. The Texans are 11-5 and a half game back after beating the Chargers on Saturday. The Jaguars have no clinching scenario this week. If they beat the Colts, then they will clinch the division title with either a win next week over the Titans or a Texans loss to the Colts. If the Jaguars lose to the Colts on Sunday, they would need a win in Week 18 AND a Texans loss to the Colts because Houston would otherwise hold the divisional tiebreaker.

The other big reason to win this week is it would keep the Jaguars alive in the race for the No. 1 overall seed. If they lose to the Colts, they are eliminated from earning the No. 1 seed. If they beat the Colts, they’ll be one game back of the 13-3 Broncos. The Patriots are 12-3 and face the Jets in New Jersey on Sunday.

If the Jaguars lose to the Colts, they would fall into a tie with the Texnas and sit a game back in the division record tiebreaker — thus, they would need a Texans win in Week 18 to clinch the AFC South title. If the Jaguars win, they would keep the division record tiebreaker even and maintain their one game lead.

In the overall playoff picture, the Patriots have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos and sit a game up on the Patriots for the conference record tiebreaker. A win over the Colts ensures they remain that game up on the Patriots in the tiebreaker. If the Jaguars win their final two games, they would clinch the No. 1 seed with a Broncos loss next week at home against the Chargers and a Patriots loss either this week to the Jets or next week to the Dolphins.