Steelers, Panthers seek division titles

NFL Week 17 picks include Jaguars, Steelers and Niners

Lorenzo Reyes shares his three picks for NFL games through Christmas week.

Every week for the duration of the 2025 regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the NFL‘s ever-evolving playoff picture – typically starting Sunday afternoon and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable. And, when the holidays roll around, we’ll be watching then, too).

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized Sunday, Jan. 4.

Here’s where things stand with Week 17 underway:

AFC playoff picture

y − 1. Denver Broncos (13-3), AFC West champions: After surviving the Chiefs on Christmas night, win in Week 18, and Denver gets the top seed … and might even have it by Sunday. The Bolts’ loss Saturday wrapped up the Broncos‘ first division title in a decade − which was also the last time they won the Super Bowl. Remaining schedule: vs. Chargers

x − 2. New England Patriots (12-3), AFC East leaders: Officially headed to the playoffs, the Pats are also still in driver’s seat to win AFC East and just a tiebreaker (common games) of sitting atop the conference if they continue to match the Broncos win for win. Remaining schedule: at Jets, vs. Dolphins.

x − 3. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4), AFC South leaders: They won their seventh straight in Week 16 with an impressive win over Denver. Indianapolis’ loss Monday stamped the Jags’ playoff invite. Remaining schedule: vs. Colts, at Titans

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6), AFC North leaders: No matter what else happens over the next two games, sweep the Ravens, and Pittsburgh secures the division. A win Sunday in Cleveland will also sew up the crown. Remaining schedule: at Browns, vs. Ravens

x − 5. Buffalo Bills (11-4), wild card No. 1: Still alive to win their sixth straight AFC East crown, the Bills were guaranteed at least their playoff shot with the Colts’ loss Monday. Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, vs. Jets

x − 6. Houston Texans (11-5), wild card No. 2: They’ve won nine of 10, including eight in a row after Saturday’s triumph over the Chargers, but haven’t been able to overtake similarly surging Jacksonville yet for the top spot in the AFC South. Still, Saturday’s victory over the Bolts clinched at least a wild-card berth for Houston, which has a shot to win the division for a third straight season − now needing just a Week 18 win and one loss by the Jags. The Texans‘ victory officially eliminated Indianapolis. Remaining schedule: vs. Colts

x − 7. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5), wild card No. 3: Saturday’s stumble against Houston ended their bid to rally for the AFC West title. Now the Bolts will have to chart their postseason path as a wild-card entrant. Remaining schedule: at Broncos

9. Baltimore Ravens (8-8), in the hunt: (The eliminated Colts are technically in eighth place in the AFC.) They lost control of their playoff destiny with Week 16’s loss to New England. But Saturday night’s win in Green Bay bought them at least 24 more hours. If Pittsburgh loses Sunday, the Steelers and Ravens will vie for the AFC North crown in Week 18. Remaining schedule: at Steelers

NFC playoff picture

x − 1. Seattle Seahawks (12-3), NFC West leaders: Splitting their season series with the Rams in Week 16’s classic means they’ll wind up with the No. 1 seed if they win their final two games. But the Bears, 49ers and Rams are still imminent threats to snatch home-field advantage and the first-round bye, too. Remaining schedule: at Panthers, at 49ers

y − 2. Chicago Bears (11-4), NFC North champions: Green Bay’s loss Saturday night was doubly sweet, as it also wrapped up the division title for Da Bears. If Chicago wins out and Seattle loses once, then the Bears capture the No. 1 seed. Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Lions

y – 3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-5), NFC East champions: With Week 16’s defeat of Washington, they became the first team this season to wrap up a division − and the first to win this division in successive years since they last did it 21 years ago. But not a ton to play for over the next two weeks, the reigning champs no longer in play for the No. 1 seed. Remaining schedule: at Bills, vs. Commanders

4. Carolina Panthers (8-7), NFC South leaders: Their defeat of the Bucs in Week 16 moved them into first place. They can win the division Sunday with a win and Tampa Bay loss. A Week 18 defeat of the Buccaneers would also do the job regardless of circumstances. Remaining schedule: vs. Seahawks, at Buccaneers

x − 5. San Francisco 49ers (11-4), wild card No. 1: Win out, which would entail completing a season sweep of Seattle on the final weekend of the regular season, and the Niners would get the top seed. Continue winning, and they won’t leave their building again this season − which would mean playing Super Bowl 60 at Levi’s Stadium. A 4-1 record in NFC West games moved them ahead of the Rams last Monday. Remaining schedule: vs. Bears, vs. Seahawks

x − 6. Los Angeles Rams (11-4), wild card No. 2: They became the first team to clinch a playoff spot but lost the inside track for home-field advantage and a first-round bye after failing to sweep Seattle. Remaining schedule: at Falcons, vs. Cardinals

x − 7. Green Bay Packers (9-6-1), wild card No. 3: The Lions’ Christmas night loss locked the battered Pack into the field. But Saturday night’s loss to Baltimore means Green Bay is again relegated to a wild-card road. Remaining schedule: at Vikings

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8), in the hunt: (Their record is actually worse than the Vikings’, Lions’ and Cowboys’ in the overall NFC standings, hence the 11th place designation.) Week 16’s loss in Charlotte was Tampa Bay’s sixth in its last seven outings. But win their last two games, and the Bucs will retain the NFC South crown by a one-game margin in the common-games tiebreaker over Carolina (assuming the Panthers also finish 9-8). Beating Miami ensures Buccaneers will play for the division in Week 18; lose, and they could be finished. Remaining schedule: at Dolphins, vs. Panthers

NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 17

Denver clinches AFC’s No. 1 seed with:

▶ Patriots loss + Bills loss or tie + Jaguars loss or tie

New England clinches AFC East with:

Win + Bills loss or tie ORTie + Bills loss

Pittsburgh clinches AFC North with:

▶ Win or tie

Seattle clinches NFC West and NFC’s No. 1 seed with:

▶ Win + Rams loss or tie + 49ers-Bears tie

Seattle clinches NFC West title with:

Win + Rams loss or tie + 49ers loss or tie ORTie + Rams loss + 49ers loss

Carolina clinches NFC South with: