The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks remain neck-and-neck on top of our DVOA ratings after Week 17, although both teams fell a couple of percentage points this week. The Rams fell behind the Seahawks as the Seahawks beat an inferior Panthers team 27-10 while the Rams lost a close game to the Falcons 27-24. With No. 3 Detroit and No. 4 Indianapolis both losing, the gap between the Rams and Seahawks and the rest of the league remains gigantic.

Some readers may be surprised that the Rams did not drop further after the Falcons thoroughly dominated them through the first half of Monday Night Football. The reason here is that DVOA is looking at the entire game, including the Rams’ comeback in the second half. The Rams still had -4.8% DVOA for the game. That’s their worst single game of the season, but it’s nowhere near as bad as things looked through the first half. The Falcons finished with 67% Post-Game Win Expectancy.

The big move this week is in Weighted DVOA, which drops the weight of early-season games to get a better idea of how well teams are playing right now. The Patriots absolutely stomped the New York Jets, 42-10, but also their two worst games of the season were in Weeks 1 and 2 and those weeks no longer count in the Weighted DVOA formula. As a result, the Patriots are 15th in overall DVOA but move all the way up to sixth in Weighted DVOA. The three teams between the Patriots and the Seahawks/Rams are Jacksonville at 3, Houston at 4, and yes, Detroit still at 5. It was a bad game last week, but still just one game. The Lions’ underlying stats are much better than their 8-8 record this season.

Here’s the week-to-week graphic of the Patriots by game:

With one week to go, I’m going to wait until the final article of the regular season to run all the tables, but here are the teams that are on pace to finish with historically good or bad DVOA in certain categories. (By historical, I mean in the top 12 or bottom 12 of teams since 1978.) This is all subject to change after Week 18, of course.

The Seahawks and Rams rank seventh and ninth in overall DVOA.
The Jets and Seahawks rank sixth and 10th in special teams DVOA.
The Browns have the ninth-worst offense and the 10th-worst special teams.
The Raiders rank seventh-worst in run offense.
The Cowboys rank sixth-worst in defense.
The Jets rank fifth-worst in pass defense.
The Patriots have the third-easiest schedule.
The Rams are the sixth-most consistent team on a week-to-week basis (yes, even including last night).
The Lions and Colts are currently seventh and eighth among non-playoff teams.

Depending on what happens with the Bills next week, the Patriots may finish the season as the first team to ever make it through a full season without facing a team in the top 10 of DVOA. Probably not, though. (The Bills are currently 10th and will likely not drop to 11th since the Philadelphia Eagles may sit starters this week.)

* * * * *

These are the FTN DVOA ratings through 17 weeks of 2025. Our Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

RK
TEAM
TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEI.
DVOA
RK
W-L
OFF.
DVOA
OFF.
RK
DEF.
DVOA
DEF.
RK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RK

1
SEA
40.6%
2
40.5%
1
13-3
8.6%
11
-22.5%
1
9.6%
2

2
LAR
40.0%
1
40.3%
2
11-5
30.2%
1
-13.8%
3
-4.1%
26

3
DET
21.5%
3
15.8%
5
8-8
12.0%
7
-7.1%
9
2.4%
9

4
IND
20.8%
4
12.4%
9
8-8
14.3%
4
-2.1%
13
4.3%
4

5
HOU
16.8%
5
18.8%
4
11-5
-4.2%
21
-19.3%
2
1.6%
13

6
JAX
15.8%
6
22.7%
3
12-4
2.6%
15
-9.5%
7
3.7%
5

7
GB
13.1%
7
11.8%
12
9-6-1
15.6%
3
1.1%
17
-1.5%
22

8
DEN
13.0%
8
15.0%
8
13-3
3.6%
13
-9.2%
8
0.3%
17

9
SF
11.4%
9
15.6%
7
12-4
18.6%
2
8.8%
27
1.7%
12

10
BUF
11.2%
12
11.9%
11
11-5
14.1%
5
4.0%
22
1.1%
15

11
PHI
9.6%
10
10.1%
15
11-5
0.8%
17
-11.4%
6
-2.7%
25

12
KC
7.9%
13
0.3%
17
6-10
9.8%
9
0.9%
16
-1.0%
21

13
PIT
7.6%
11
11.5%
13
9-7
1.1%
16
-6.1%
11
0.4%
16

14
BAL
7.5%
15
10.2%
14
8-8
5.4%
12
0.2%
15
2.3%
11

15
NE
5.5%
17
15.7%
6
13-3
13.5%
6
8.0%
25
0.0%
19

16
CHI
2.3%
16
12.3%
10
11-5
9.2%
10
7.1%
24
0.3%
18

RK
TEAM
TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEI.
DVOA
RK
W-L
OFF.
DVOA
OFF.
RK
DEF.
DVOA
DEF.
RK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RK

17
LAC
1.9%
14
2.8%
16
11-5
-1.9%
19
-6.2%
10
-2.4%
24

18
ATL
-5.7%
19
-6.7%
21
7-9
-1.4%
18
-2.5%
12
-6.9%
29

19
MIN
-6.2%
21
-4.1%
20
8-8
-21.1%
29
-12.5%
4
2.4%
10

20
TB
-7.9%
18
-13.3%
24
7-9
-2.2%
20
1.2%
18
-4.5%
27

21
MIA
-8.9%
22
-3.5%
19
7-9
-7.1%
24
4.4%
23
2.7%
8

22
DAL
-9.5%
20
-9.6%
23
7-8-1
11.0%
8
21.7%
32
1.3%
14

23
CIN
-10.0%
26
-0.6%
18
6-10
3.1%
14
16.8%
30
3.7%
6

24
CAR
-13.0%
24
-6.9%
22
8-8
-8.5%
26
3.8%
20
-0.7%
20

25
WAS
-13.7%
25
-22.5%
28
4-12
-6.5%
23
12.2%
28
5.0%
3

26
NYG
-16.4%
27
-13.3%
25
3-13
-5.4%
22
8.6%
26
-2.4%
23

27
ARI
-18.7%
23
-27.4%
29
3-13
-7.4%
25
3.9%
21
-7.4%
30

28
NO
-22.9%
28
-18.0%
26
6-10
-15.6%
27
-0.4%
14
-7.6%
31

29
TEN
-27.2%
29
-22.0%
27
3-13
-18.0%
28
12.4%
29
3.2%
7

30
CLE
-31.0%
32
-35.4%
30
4-12
-34.0%
32
-12.3%
5
-9.3%
32

31
NYJ
-34.9%
30
-43.2%
32
3-13
-26.1%
30
19.2%
31
10.3%
1

32
LV
-35.3%
31
-40.1%
31
2-14
-27.0%
31
2.5%
19
-5.8%
28