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When the NFL released the Week 18 schedule on Sunday night, it looked like one of the biggest games was going to be in Tampa Bay with the Buccaneers hosting the Panthers in a battle for the NFC South title. 

The two teams will be playing, but the division title won’t necessarily be on the line and that’s because the Falcons threw a wrench into things by beating the Rams on Monday night. Due to Atlanta’s win, the Buccaneers WON’T be able to clinch the division on Saturday if they beat the Panthers. The Bucs will also need the Falcons to lose to the Saints on Sunday. 

That new wrinkle was added following the Falcons’ shocking win that improved their record to 7-9. Let’s take a quick look at the NFC South standings so we can breakdown why Atlanta’s win made such a huge difference in the division title race: 

Panthers

8-8

3-0 (2-0 vs. Falcons, 1-0 vs. Buccaneers)

6-5

Buccaneers

7-9

1-2 (1-1 vs. Falcons, 0-1 vs. Panthers)

5-6

Falcons

7-9

1-3 (0-2 vs. Panthers, 1-1 vs. Buccaneers)

6-5

If the Buccaneers beat the Panthers and then the Falcons follow that up on Sunday with a win over the Saints, that would create a three-way tie at 8-9 and the Panthers would the division in that scenario due to having the best head-to-head record among all three teams. 

This means that Atlanta’s win over the Rams gave the Panthers an extra way to clinch the division. The Panthers will now clinch the division title if EITHER of the following two things happens in Week 18: 

Panthers beat/tie Buccaneers ORFalcons beat Saints

As for the Buccaneers, they now only have one path to the NFC South title and it looks like this:

Buccaneers beat Panthers AND Falcons lose/tie with Saints

If the Falcons had lost on Monday night, then Saturday’s game between the Bucs and Panthers would have been a winner-take-all battle for the division title. Instead, Carolina is now the only team that can clinch on Saturday and that will happen if the Panthers win. If the Bucs win, they’ll be rooting hard for the Saints on Sunday because a New Orleans win would send Tampa Bay to the postseason. 

The team that ends up winning the NFC South will go into the playoffs as the fourth seed and they’ll get to host either the Rams, Seahawks or 49ers in the opening round of the playoffs. Although that might sound like a favorable matchup for one of those three NFC West teams, don’t forget: The Buccaneers beat both the Seahawks and 49ers this year while the Panthers beat the Rams.