There is a very good chance that the New York Jets’ next franchise quarterback will be playing football under the national spotlight today.

The Jets, who are more desperate for a quarterback than any other NFL franchise, currently possess the third overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft. Barring a shocking road upset over the Buffalo Bills, they will retain their top-three position in the order.

Fortunately for the Jets, there are three quarterback prospects who boast first-round grades on the consensus big board: Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, Oregon’s Dante Moore, and Alabama’s Ty Simpson.

All three will take the field in the College Football Playoff on New Year’s Day.

Moore and the fifth-seeded Ducks will take on fourth-seeded Texas Tech at 12 p.m. EST in the Orange Bowl. At 4 p.m. EST, Mendoza and the undefeated Hoosiers will battle Simpson and the ninth-seeded Crimson Tide in the Rose Bowl.

Given the likelihood that one of these quarterbacks winds up in Florham Park, today’s games are required viewing for Jets fans—even more essential than any Jets game since at least October.

What Jets fans should want to see

For the Jets and their fans, the hope is that all three quarterbacks can shine under college football’s brightest limelight.

Buried in the No. 3 slot with no chance of earning the No. 1 pick, it would be tremendous news for the Jets if all three prospects use the CFP to prove themselves worthy of being selected in the top three. That would allow the Jets to feel comfortable with the scenario of staying put at No. 3 and taking the best available quarterback, as opposed to feeling pressured into giving up their precious assets to move up and select a player they view as significantly better than the rest.

On top of that, we don’t even know yet whether any of these quarterbacks will declare for the draft. Any of them could still choose to stay in college. However, the better they play in the CFP, the likelier it is that they capitalize on the opportunity to be selected early in the 2026 draft.

Without the luxury of the first overall pick, the Jets need as many first-round-quality quarterback prospects as possible to be available to them. Today is the most pivotal day of the season when it comes to determining how many QB prospects will be deemed worthy of either taking at No. 3 or trading up to No. 1 for.

So, what can each of these prospects do to raise their stock in today’s nationally televised games?

Here are specific areas of each prospect’s game to hone in on.

Dante Moore: Short accuracy

Moore’s pure arm strength is a subject of debate, but what is not in question is his accuracy, touch, and timing on downfield throws. His 64.6% adjusted completion percentage on deep passes (20+ air yards) is the best mark in college football.

While the 20-year-old is a big-time throw machine, he needs to improve his production on the routine throws.

Moore has an adjusted completion percentage of 86.0% on short passes (0-9 air yards), which is solid, ranking 13th out of 94 qualified FBS quarterbacks (min. 100 short passes). However, he has four touchdowns (56th) and four interceptions (10th-most) in the short area, while his 6.8 yards per attempt on these passes ranks 32nd.

Overall, Moore has earned a 66.2 Pro Football Focus grade on short passes, ranking a mediocre 53rd out of 94 qualifiers. That’s well behind Simpson (72.9, 28th) and Mendoza (81.5, 5th).

Perhaps even more concerning than his efficiency on short passes is how rarely he targets them. Moore has thrown to the short range on just 35.7% of his pass attempts, ranking 78th out of 94 qualifiers. This would be untenable in the NFL; it would be more than two points behind the lowest rate among quarterbacks with 300+ dropbacks in 2025.

As we discussed in our breakdown of Mendoza, short passing is a critical skill for quarterbacks in today’s NFL, perhaps even more important than deep or intermediate passing. Year after year, NFL teams are getting the ball out faster and shorter than ever before. Quick, shallow passes are the bread and butter of every NFL offense. If you can’t hit them with laser-sharp precision, you won’t be successful in today’s league.

Moore’s ceiling as a passer is obvious; he delivers “big-time throws” at the highest rate among Power 4 quarterbacks (7.8% of attempts, per PFF). However, NFL offenses are prioritizing efficiency over explosion. You can’t live off of big plays alone in today’s league. Those plays can only come after you force defenses to respect your ability to shred them with a thousand paper cuts.

For Moore, the goal today is to display excellence in the short part of the field. This is the best thing he can do to improve scouts’ confidence in his NFL-readiness.

If he pulls it off against a Texas Tech team allowing the third-fewest points per game (10.9) in the nation, it would be all the more impressive.

Ty Simpson: Deep passing, ball security

Simpson’s ceiling has been called into question for a few different reasons, chief among them being his inconsistency as a deep passer.

Entering the CFP, Simpson had an adjusted completion percentage of just 43.4% on deep passes, ranking 71st out of 157 FBS quarterbacks. 

However, Simpson took a promising step forward in Alabama’s first-round CFP win over Oklahoma. He completed all four of his deep pass attempts for 120 yards and a touchdown. That pushed his adjusted completion percentage on deep balls up to 47.4%.

Still, it pales in comparison to Moore’s 64.6% (first) and Mendoza’s 55.8% (eighth). But if Simpson can string together back-to-back playoff games in which he thrives on deep balls, he could change a lot of people’s minds about his potential.

The second major concern for Simpson, particularly in comparison to his peers, is his ball security.

Simpson has actually thrown the fewest interceptions of the trio, hurling just five picks compared to Mendoza’s six and Moore’s eight. He’s gotten lucky, though.

According to PFF, Simpson has tossed 15 turnover-worthy throws, compared to just nine apiece for Mendoza and Moore.

Mendoza and Moore each have a turnover-worthy throw rate of 2.3%, tying them for 15th-lowest among 99 FBS qualifiers (min. 300 dropbacks). Simpson ranks 35th with a 2.7% rate.

Again, this is an area where Simpson turned heads in the first round of the CFP. He did not throw any turnover-worthy passes across 29 attempts against Oklahoma’s top-notch defense.

Simpson’s ball security will be put to an even greater test in the Rose Bowl. Indiana’s defense ranks eighth in the nation with 1.3 interceptions per game. The Hoosiers also rank second-best with 10.8 points per game allowed.

If Simpson can take the top off of Indiana’s untouchable defense while also keeping the ball safe from the Hoosiers’ ball-hawking secondary, he could skyrocket on a lot of mock drafts in the coming days.

Fernando Mendoza: Avoiding sacks

During his time at Cal, sacks were Mendoza’s nemesis.

In 2024, Mendoza took 40 sacks, tied for the fourth-most among FBS quarterbacks. It wasn’t entirely his fault, though, as he played behind a poor offensive line. The Golden Bears ranked 49th out of 68 Power Four teams in pass-blocking efficiency.

However, Mendoza certainly deserved some of the blame for his massive sack total, as he struggled to prevent pressures from turning into sacks. Mendoza had a pressure-to-sack rate of 25.6%, ranking ninth-worst among 98 FBS qualifiers (min. 300 dropbacks).

This is the area where Mendoza has seen the most significant improvement at Indiana.

Mendoza has taken just 18 sacks in 13 games, and it’s largely because he is doing a better job of getting the ball out when he’s under pressure. His pressure-to-sack rate is down to 16.7%.

Despite the substantial progress, Mendoza’s pressure-to-sack rate ranks 54th-lowest out of 99 FBS qualifiers, indicating that there is still plenty of room for improvement. He is better than Simpson (18.8%, 68th), but behind Moore (15.1%, 34th), so if he wants to cement his status as the clear-cut No. 1 pick over Moore, this is an area where he needs to close some ground.

This issue has resurfaced for Mendoza in recent games after a phenomenal start to the year. Through nine games, he had taken just seven sacks on 67 pressures, an outstanding 10.4% pressure-to-sack rate. However, over his last four games, Mendoza took 11 sacks on 41 pressures, a brutal 26.8% rate.

This sack was rightfully credited to Mendoza pic.twitter.com/5cOgfjjmAf

— AB9620 (@Alex9620x) November 25, 2025

The worst outing came against Wisconsin, when Mendoza took five sacks despite being pressured just seven times (71.4% pressure-to-sack rate). Otherwise, it was an outstanding game, as Mendoza completed 22 of 24 passes for 299 yards, four touchdowns, and no picks. But in the NFL, it’s much more difficult to rebound from five sacks and still have a successful game through the air.

Mendoza also took three sacks on 18 pressures against Penn State (16.7%) and three sacks on 13 pressures in the Big Ten championship win over Ohio State (23.1%).

Today, Mendoza will take on a Crimson Tide defense that has struggled to take down quarterbacks this season, ranking 58th in the nation with just 2.1 sacks per game. It would be concerning if his sack woes continue against this unit.

Stakes are back for Jets fans

The 2025 season has been a miserable one for Jets fans due to the absence of stakes. Expectations for the team were already low entering the season, so as the team dug itself into an 0-7 hole, many fans were emotionally checked out by Halloween.

Today, though, stakes have returned for Jets fans.

This afternoon, there is a lot on the line for the future of the franchise. There is a world where all three quarterbacks flop, leaving fans spending the next four months worrying about whether there is a signal-caller worth selecting in the top three. There is also a world where all three quarterbacks shine, allowing fans to feel newfound confidence about where the franchise is headed.

Sit back, relax, and enjoy some high-stakes football for once.