Over the past month and a half, the Broncos’ defense has regressed from its exceptional level of play to performing more like an average NFL defense, which is concerning, considering this should be the team’s defining strength as they jockey for a Lombardi trophy.
Fortunately, that regression feels much worse than the team’s down-to-down performance would suggest.
Since Week 11, the Broncos’ defense ranks 10th in defensive success rate, which indicates they’re still keeping the offense behind the sticks at a high rate and are generally performing well. Yet, the defense has also slipped to 22nd in EPA allowed per play.
Why is there such a disparity there?
Think of success rate like batting average and EPA per play like slugging percentage. The Broncos aren’t allowing a lot of hits, but when they do allow a hit, it’s either going for multiple bases or sailing over the outfield fence, and those back-breaking hits are primarily coming on high-value third and fourth downs.
If you isolate the post-Week 11 defensive performance to just first and second down, they still look the part of a great unit, ranking fifth in success rate and 12th in EPA/play allowed. On third and fourth downs though, they’re performing like one of the league’s worst defenses, allowing the 11th-worst success rate and the third-most EPA per play.
To make a championship push, they have to play better on the game’s most important downs.