Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 18’s game between the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints.

Mercedes-Benz Stadium turns into a switchboard when the division title sits on someone else’s table. Tampa Bay just beat Carolina 16–14, left both at 8–9, and shoved the NFC South into this Sunday’s rivalry. If New Orleans wins or ties, Tampa Bay steals the division and the No. 4 seed. If Atlanta wins, it creates an 8–9 three-way knot that sends Carolina to host a wild-card game. The league loves “meaningless Week 18” talk, and this one laughs at it. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 18’s game between the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The numbers frame two teams that found themselves late, just in different ways. Saturday’s 16–14 result turned this game into a division switch for Tampa Bay and Carolina, even with both teams eliminated. Atlanta sits at -0.010 offensive EPA/play for the season, then creeps up to +0.018 over the last five weeks. New Orleans lives at -0.090 over the season, then jumps to +0.070 lately, which is a real heater. The Saints’ defense is the separator, because it moves from -0.062 season-long to -0.160 over the last five. Atlanta’s defense holds near break-even overall, then drifts to +0.020 lately, which matters against a hot opponent. That recent gap matters more when one stop can effectively crown a different franchise.

Atlanta’s offense runs through Bijan Robinson (RB) and Kyle Pitts (TE) like a two-man orchestra. Bijan has 100 carries for 592 yards at 5.9 a pop, with 4.6 yards after contact per attempt and a 15.0% explosive run rate. Pitts owns 42 targets with 411 yards and four touchdowns, plus 2.60 yards per route and 1.011 EPA per target. Bijan also catches real volume, with 39 targets and 267 yards, and he turns throws into violence with 11.9 yards after catch per catch. That is the entire Atlanta identity. Drake London (WR) and Darnell Mooney (WR) decide how wide the field feels, because their presence forces the Saints to defend the boundary, not just the middle. London’s last-six efficiency looks like a limited player, but his targets still change coverage rules. Mooney’s 0.548 EPA per target comes with volatility, yet he still supplies the “one play flips the drive” threat. If either is compromised, David Sills (WR) becomes the live body, and the Saints can compress everything toward Pitts and Bijan. That’s also where the stakes show up, because Atlanta’s win condition gets narrower, and the Saints can call the game tighter.

New Orleans’ offense has a different personality, because it’s spread across a committee and it’s riding Tyler Shough (QB) as the heartbeat. Audric Estime (RB) has been the cleanest runner lately, with 25 carries for 135 yards at 5.4 a pop, plus 4.5 yards after contact per attempt and a 52.0% success rate, and he gives them real “finish the drive” juice. Devin Neal (RB) supplies the steady volume, but the efficiency has been thinner at 3.6 a carry with a -0.141 EPA per attempt, which matters when the Saints need every early-down snap to stay ahead of the sticks. Shough adds his own ground stress with 27 carries for 119 yards and two touchdowns, and his 0.275 EPA per rush attempt turns scrambles into hidden first downs. In the pass game, Juwan Johnson (TE) has become the chain-mover with 30 targets and an 83.3% catch rate, while Devaughn Vele (WR) has been the efficiency spike with 1.261 EPA per target and a 78.9% success rate. With Chris Olave (WR) not playing, those two, plus the backs, become the real answers that keep this offense from turning into pure improvisation. And in this particular Week 18, those “answers” matter, because a Saints win hands Tampa a home playoff game.

This game becomes a coverage and pressure argument, and the splits are loud. Atlanta blitzes 35.8% season-long, then trims to 29.1% lately, and it still lives in man more than New Orleans. The Falcons also shift their shell lately, leaning into Cover 4 as the base instead of leaning on Cover 3. New Orleans stays true to itself, because it majors in Cover 3 at 45.4% season-long and 47.8% recently, with a heavy zone diet. That interacts cleanly with Kirk Cousins (QB), because he posts 0.107 EPA per dropback against Cover 3, and he also thrives with play action at 0.388 EPA per dropback. It also creates a real trap for Tyler Shough (QB), because he sits at -0.112 EPA per dropback against Cover 3, even while he pops against Cover 1 at 0.177. The Saints can keep two safeties involved in the picture, tackle the checkdowns, and dare Atlanta to finish drives through tight windows.

Saints vs. Falcons pick, best bet

Shough brings a different kind of stress, because he runs with real value and sits at 0.275 EPA per rush attempt with a 14.8% explosive run rate. He also owns third downs, posting 0.060 EPA per dropback while Cousins sits at -0.354 in that split. The trouble is pressure, because Shough craters to -0.514 EPA per dropback under heat and has taken 27 sacks. Atlanta still creates discomfort with a high-pressure approach and a coverage menu that changes post-snap. Atlanta just proved it can win without living on the blitz, and that matters here. Against the Rams, it blitzed only 22.0% and still created pressure on 29.3% of dropbacks. It logged three sacks, three interceptions, and finished at -6.32 defensive EPA, which is a true drive-killer profile.

New Orleans has answered that lately by creating pressure without selling out, because its pressure rate rises to 40.9% over the last six. That’s why this stays a one-score game even without fireworks. And when the whole NFC South is watching from someone else’s sideline, one sack can decide three seasons at once.

The Saints losing Chris Olave removes the cleanest “get-out-of-jail” route in the biggest moments, and that is the best argument for Atlanta. It pushes more work onto the pieces already carrying the load, and it asks New Orleans to win with spacing, patience, and quarterback movement instead of a true alpha answer. It also opens the door for Atlanta to play lighter boxes, rally to screens, and hunt third downs with simulated pressure. I still land on New Orleans +3.5 because the recent form gap is not cosmetic. The Saints are playing their best football, and the defense has been elite by EPA over the last month. Atlanta’s offense can absolutely score, but it also comes with obvious choke points. The hidden-points layers favor the Saints in field position through special teams returns, yet Atlanta holds edges in kicking efficiency and fourth-down conversion rate. That mix screams “late possession decides it,” not “comfortable favorite.” The market also leans Atlanta and invites a public-side lay, which makes taking points feel cleaner.

The script should feel simple and still brutal. Atlanta should lean into wide-zone and duo, then marry it to play action that isolates Pitts between linebackers and safeties. Atlanta should also keep Bijan moving, because his best touches come when the defense cannot key his launch point. New Orleans should sit in its Cover 3 world, rally to the flat, and force Atlanta to stack completions without freebies. Offensively, New Orleans should use motion, screens, and designed quarterback movement to stay out of the sacks that ruin drives. The chain-moving spine should stay built through the tight end and the emerging wideout, with the run committee taking whatever light boxes appear. Then the seeding pressure takes over, because this rivalry is deciding the NFC South champion from a distance.

I’m taking Saints +3.5 (-110), with a projected final of Falcons 20, Saints 19.

Best bet: Saints +3.5 (-110) at Falcons

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I’m taking Kyle Pitts (TE) 5+ receptions at -115. The role is already loud, and the matchup keeps the ball in his lanes. Over the last six weeks, Pitts has 42 targets, 33 catches, 411 yards, and four touchdowns, and the efficiency is real at 2.60 YPRR with 1.011 EPA per target. New Orleans leans heavily zone and Cover 3, which invites tight ends into the seams, hooks, and sit-down windows when the quarterback stays on schedule. If Drake London or Darnell Mooney is limited, the target tree tightens even further and Pitts becomes the cleanest chain mover. I want the receptions because it cashes even if Atlanta stalls in the red zone.

Best prop lean: Kyle Pitts 5+ receptions (-115)

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