As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for the Steelers to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 18 regular-season finale against the Baltimore Ravens.

My Steelers prediction is at the bottom.

The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Receivers Make Plays

Simple as that. Pittsburgh’s receivers must win 1v1 matchups and make plays in crucial moments when things get tight. Plays that weren’t made a week ago. The scheme can be better, Aaron Rodgers can be better, but there’s no getting around a receiver making a contested catch with the ball in the air.

With a leading trio of Calvin Austin III, Adam Thielen, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, it’s correct to be skeptical. Pittsburgh’s receivers can quiet those doubters with big plays to all levels of the field. Or continued failures that will only fuel them into the offseason.

2. Warren And Gainwell Are Plenty Involved

Without WR DK Metcalf and TE Darnell Washington, the Steelers’ best offensive weapons are their running backs. Jaylen Warren could become a 1,000-yard rusher, and there’s a reason why Kenneth Gainwell was just voted team MVP, about the last name anyone would’ve guessed at the start of the season.

Pittsburgh must feed both. It doesn’t have to come solely on the ground. Both are capable receivers and have shown it all year. Gainwell has 65 receptions, and Warren had a big receiving score in Week 14’s win over Baltimore. The Steelers can’t ignore both of them, and OC Arthur Smith would be smart to get both on the field in Pony Packages, an idea Pittsburgh has done 27 times this season but should lean on a maximal amount tonight.

3. Steelers Feast On Faalele

Defensive line coach Karl Dunbar talks about the “fish of the week.” The weakest offensive lineman to attack. That’s right guard Daniel Faalele, who struggled in the first matchup versus Pittsburgh.

Now, Derrick Harmon gets to see him after sitting out that Week 14 meeting. Harmon must continue to make Faalele’s life tough. Steady run defense is expected, but Harmon must also make an impact as a pass rusher. Finesse moves to get around the 370-pound Faalele are the way to go. Baltimore likes to pull him, and Pittsburgh can’t let Faalele kick out its EDGE players with Derrick Henry running behind.

The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. They Ruin Derrick Henry’s Birthday

Astute Internet users pointed out that Henry’s 32nd birthday is today. Pittsburgh has to spoil the party. To the Steelers’ credit, they minimized Henry in Week 14, even in a 217-yard rushing outing by the Ravens in Week 14. Henry was held under 100 yards, 3.8 yards per carry, and a long of 19. If Pittsburgh can replicate that without allowing the big plays of speedy backup RB Keaton Mitchell, they’ll be in this game.

Rally to the ball. Tackle well. Try to rip it out; Henry’s been prone to fumbles. Send him home with a birthday loss.

2. Pittsburgh’s Weakside Runs Are Worse Than Baltimore’s

Sticking with the running game. Pittsburgh and Baltimore have gotten into a groove of running weak-side, meaning away from the strength and numbers of their formation. The Steelers have done it to mask tight-end blocking issues due to Darnell Washington’s absence. The Ravens do it out of the I-Form because they love running Henry behind burly FB Patrick Ricard.

Whichever team runs it better on the weakside, or whichever defense handles not having numbers better, will win the ground game. And very likely win the night.

3. Rodgers Can’t Win The Scramble Drill

Similar to the above point about receivers needing to win, that’s in reference to the in-structure plays. For Rodgers, he has to make plays outside of it. Two key completions in Week 14 came on scramble drills, including a long catch-and-run to Metcalf to open up the third quarter. Knowing Pittsburgh’s available receivers may have trouble winning the initial route, Rodgers and the pass game must find explosives through out-of-structure moments.

The Ravens’ pass rush is a weakness, and the Steelers’ offensive line is playing well. It should hold up to give Rodgers time to extend the play. He must do so, and receivers must work hard and smart to get open. In particular, Adam Thielen could be a prime target in these situations.

Prediction

Ravens: 23
Steelers: 19

Season Prediction Record

4-12

We are cleaning out the front office and playing for the No. 1 draft pick. And I know you are all very, very happy I’m picking against the Steelers.