Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 18’s game between the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions.

Chicago walks into Week 18 at 11–5 with the NFC’s No. 2 seed still in its hands, while Detroit sits 8–8 playing pure spoiler. A Bears win or tie keeps that slot, which matters because it blocks Philadelphia from jumping them in the bracket. If Chicago slips and the Eagles beat Washington, the teams swap places, and the seeding story rewrites itself fast. Detroit can’t reach the tournament, but a free-swing divisional finale still turns into a stamina brawl with every snap contested. Chicago just watched its one-seed chase die at San Francisco, so this is the get-right spot that can set up a Wild Card rubber match with Green Bay. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 18’s game between the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The efficiency numbers explain why I’m leaning Chicago, and the player ecosystems make it feel tangible. The Bears move from +0.080 offensive EPA/play season-long to +0.150 over the last five weeks, and that spike shows up in who’s driving value. Caleb Williams (QB) sits at 0.08 EPA/dropback on the season and stays functional versus heat, posting 0.22 EPA/dropback against the blitz. That matters here, because Detroit still brings a 39.0% pressure rate and a 7.2% sack rate over the last six. Williams has also been a weapon on the ground, with 110 rushing yards and +0.399 EPA/rush over the last six, which turns “covered” snaps into first downs. Chicago’s run game is not just volume, it’s efficiency. D’Andre Swift (RB) has 413 yards at 5.2 per carry with +0.123 EPA/rush, and Kyle Monangai (RB) matches it with 356 yards at 4.7 and a positive +0.010 EPA/rush, so Chicago can stay on schedule without needing hero throws. That’s why the line matters so much. The Bears have protected it, allowing only six sacks over the last six games with a 3.1% sack rate. That protection pairs with real early-down steadiness, because Chicago’s early-down offense is 0.084 EPA/play with a 45.1% success rate, and it keeps the playbook open.

The passing game also has multiple efficiency levers, which is what makes Chicago feel like the more complete side right now. Luther Burden (WR) is the cleanest separator, sitting at 3.20 YPRR with +0.807 EPA/target and a 75.8% catch rate over his recent sample. Colston Loveland (TE) is even sharper on a per-target basis at +0.899 EPA/target, and he’s drawing 35 targets in six games, so the middle of the field is not optional for this offense. D.J. Moore (WR) adds another efficient layer at +0.594 EPA/target, which stops defenses from selling out on Burden. Even the auxiliary pieces fit the shape. Cole Kmet (TE) has +0.641 EPA/target on lower volume, which gives Chicago a red-zone and third-down release valve. If Rome Odunze (WR) is active, the seven-and-a-half targets per game in his two games played signals real intent, even if the production has lagged.

Detroit still has the higher pure passing ceiling, and those player stats are the reason the game won’t feel safe. Jared Goff (QB) is at 0.16 EPA/dropback with a 68.3% completion rate, and he is ruthless when clean at 0.47 EPA/dropback. Detroit’s identity lately has also been concentrated, which can be a weapon. Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) has 63 targets in six games with +0.687 EPA/target, and Jameson Williams (WR) has 43 targets with +0.901 EPA/target, which is a weekly explosive tax on any defense. Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) keeps the whole thing stitched together with 46 targets, an 80.4% catch rate, and +0.214 EPA/target, so even checkdowns can be positive plays. The problem is that Detroit’s recent rushing efficiency is fighting its own line. The Lions are down to 3.3 YPC as a team over the last six with only 1.3 yards before contact and a brutal 28.1% stuff rate, which forces longer down-and-distance and raises the pressure on Goff’s precision.

That’s where Chicago’s matchup fit shows up. The Bears’ early-down defense is -0.054 EPA/play, so they can mute Detroit’s “easy” snaps, then make third down feel like a decision tree. Chicago also has a coverage-specific angle it can chase. Goff kills Cover 2 at +0.47 EPA/dropback, but he’s basically neutral versus Cover 0 at -0.01, while Williams flips that script with +0.29 EPA/dropback versus Cover 0 and -0.07 versus Cover 2. If Chicago can mix pressure looks and force a few sped-up throws, it can keep Detroit’s explosive layer from turning into a runway, and that supports laying the 3.5 with the hotter, more stable offense.

Lions vs. Bears pick, best bet

Detroit’s counter is real, because its ceiling still lives in pressure plus explosives. The Lions have generated a 39.0% pressure rate over the last six with a 7.2% sack rate, and that can bend Williams’s timing. Goff is still lethal when protected, sitting at 0.47 EPA per dropback from a clean pocket. Amon-Ra St. Brown has carried a monster workload lately, and the efficiency still sits at +0.687 EPA per target. Jameson Williams brings the “one snap changes the math” element at +0.901 EPA per target, and Detroit’s explosive pass rate is 13.5% over the last six. Gibbs stays involved as a receiver with 46 targets and an 80.4% catch rate, so Detroit always has an outlet answer. I still trust Chicago’s current stability more than Detroit’s best-case flash, because negative snaps have started eating Lions drives. The Bears have allowed 23 sacks all season and only six over the last six games, while Detroit has taken 13 sacks over the last six.

The game script should feel like Chicago leaning into its run identity and letting the pass game bloom off it. Chicago should keep the run menu wide, because it isn’t getting stuffed lately and it’s creating real yards before contact. Williams should marry movement throws to defined reads, then steal first downs with his legs when Detroit wins a rep. Burden and Loveland should keep the chains moving, and Moore should get the high-leverage targets when coverage tilts. Detroit should treat the pass as its primary path, because the run-blocking trend has been ugly lately and the early-down ground game keeps landing in second-and-long. The Lions should keep Gibbs involved through the air and hunt explosives for Williams downfield. Chicago’s defense can’t just sit in one comfort call, because Goff has been elite versus Cover 2 at +0.47 EPA per dropback. Chicago should show pressure, rotate late, and force quick decisions, not clean pictures. If Chicago wins early downs and avoids sacks, the closing drives should belong to the hotter offense.

So I’m laying Bears -3.5 (-108). The market is asking Chicago to win by more than a field goal, and the recent offensive profile supports it. The total is 50.5, and I understand the temptation with both defenses leaking by EPA lately, but I prefer the side because Chicago’s run efficiency and protection feel repeatable. Hidden points lean Chicago, too, with 84.6% on field goals and a perfect extra-point ledger. Detroit has been less reliable at 79.3% on field goals and 96.4% on extra points, and that matters when the spread lives on one kick. Detroit’s fourth-down posture is the one thing that can keep the margin weird, because the Lions go more often and convert more often.

That’s exactly why -3.5 fits better than chasing a bigger number. My projected final stays Bears 30, Lions 24.

Best bet: Bears -3.5 (-110) vs. Lions

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I’m taking Colston Loveland (TE) 5+ receptions at +155. Chicago’s recent ecosystem keeps pointing toward middle-of-the-field volume, and Loveland is the cleanest “stay on schedule” piece they have. He’s sitting on 35 targets and 24 catches over the last six, and the efficiency is real at +0.899 EPA/target, which tells me these aren’t empty flares. Detroit still brings real disruption with a 39.0% pressure rate and a 7.2% sack rate lately, and that kind of heat usually forces quicker decisions and more first-read throws. That’s where Loveland lives, especially if Detroit keeps leaning man and the Bears keep using him as the chain-mover against linebackers and safeties. I don’t need a touchdown or a splash play, just five clean wins, and this price pays like it’s a longshot. I’d play it down to +140.

Best prop lean: Colston Loveland 5+ receptions (+155)

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!