Did the New York Jets rob the Indianapolis Colts?

Going into Week 18, most of the focus among Jets fans is on the fate of the team’s own first-round pick, which could still land in six different slots, including a ceiling of the No. 2 pick.

However, the Jets have a second first-rounder to keep an eye on, which is rapidly flying up the board in its own right. That pick, of course, is the one owed to them by the Indianapolis Colts.

Indy’s 2026 first-round selection still has five possible landing spots. That includes a potential rise of up to four slots.

Outlook of the Jets’ 2026 first-round pick from Indianapolis

At the 2025 trade deadline, the Jets netted a haul from the Indianapolis Colts for two-time All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner.

New York caught Indianapolis in a desperate position. The Colts were the surprise of the NFL, boasting a 7-2 record and the league’s best point differential. Looking to capitalize on their apparent championship window, Indianapolis went all-in and dished out two first-round picks (along with wide receiver Adonai Mitchell) for the 25-year-old lockdown cornerback.

Since then, the Colts have imploded. They are 1-6 since the trade, culminating in their elimination from playoff contention before the final week of the season. Gardner has only played in four games due to a calf injury, exiting early in two of those.

It leaves the Jets sitting pretty.

The Colts’ elimination from the playoffs guarantees that their pick will land in the top 18. It’s a meteoric rise from the projected No. 32 slot that the pick held when the Jets acquired it.

And the ascent may not be complete.

Entering Week 18’s Sunday games, the Colts’ pick currently sits in the No. 18 slot (the lowest slot among non-playoff teams). It’s impossible for the pick to drop any lower, given that the Colts are eliminated from playoff contention. However, it can rise as high as No. 14.

If the Colts (8-8, .536 SOS) lose in Houston against the 11-5 Texans (1 p.m. EST), wins by any of these four teams would push the Colts’ pick up by one slot:

13. Dallas Cowboys (7-8-1, .434 SOS): at Giants

15. Detroit Lions (8-8, .493 SOS): at Bears

16. Baltimore Ravens (8-8, .502 SOS): at Steelers

17. Minnesota Vikings (8-8, .518 SOS): vs. Packers

The Colts cannot pass the current No. 14 team, the Carolina Panthers (8-9), as Carolina has clinched the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker over Indianapolis. The same would hold if Carolina swaps places with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9), who have also clinched the tiebreaker over Indianapolis.

With a Colts loss and wins by each of those four teams (DAL, DET, BAL, MIN), the Jets would have the 14th overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft, a sweet bonus to their own first-rounder, which will fall somewhere from second to seventh.

There’s plenty on the line for the Jets’ draft future today.