NFL Week 18 scenarios: Broncos, Patriots, Jaguars vie for AFC No. 1 seed while NFC teams jockey for position

There’s plenty left to be decided heading into Week 18’s Sunday afternoon slate even after multiple division champions have already been crowned on the day.

Still up in the air today:

Numerous playoff seedings

Here’s your rundown of what’s at stake each game, and how seriously each team is taking it.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Result: The Buccaneers beat the Panthers 16-14, but Carolina wins the NFC South anyway because the Falcons won on Sunday to force a three-way tie for the division lead. The Panthers have the upper hand in the tie breaker and will head to the playoffs as the No. 4 seed.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

Result: The Seahawks stifled the 49ers to clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs and the NFC West title.

Remaining scenario: San Francisco was already in the playoffs, but it will settle for either the 5 or 6 seed with the loss. A Rams loss to the Cardinals gives the Niners the 5 seed while a Rams win knocks San Francisco to the 6 spot.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Result: Houston lost out on a shot at the AFC South title via the Jaguars’ win.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Result: The Jaguars comfortably secured the AFC South title with a blowout win over the Titans.

Remaining scenario: Jacksonville still has a shot at the AFC’s No. 1 seed, but that will require losses by the Broncos and Patriots in the late window.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Result: The Cowboys sat Dak Prescott in the second half, and the Giants pulled away for a victory that cost them a shot at the No. 1 pick in the 2026 draft. The Las Vegas Raiders clinched the top pick as a result.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Result: The biggest story from this game was Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett breaking the NFL single-season sack record by tallying his 23rd of the season. Other than that, the Bengals slightly improved their draft position with a loss.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Result: The Packers rested several starters because they were already locked into the No. 7 seed in the playoffs. It was a meaningless loss.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Result: Neither team had much to play for in this game, but the Falcons’ win pushed the Panthers to the NFC South title thanks to a three-way tiebreaker between Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Carolina. Atlanta’s win also hurts the draft position of the Los Angeles Rams, who own the Falcons’ 2026 first-round pick.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

What’s at stake for Dolphins: The chance to deny the Patriots the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win. Mike McDaniel’s last chance to state his case to be head coach in 2026. Draft positioning too, since the pick could fall anywhere in the late top 10 to the teens.

What’s at stake for Patriots: There are two scenarios that would land the Patriots the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Either they win and the Broncos lose or tie, or they tie and the Broncos lose.

Are both teams going for it? Expect the Patriots to, with the Broncos playing at the same time Sunday. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are sitting their two best playmakers: De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle. They likely also want one more look at rookie seventh-round QB Quinn Ewers.

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos

What’s at stake for Chargers: Strap in. Out of 64 possible AFC playoff seeding scenarios, 18 end with the Chargers in the fifth seed (28%), 30 end with the Chargers in the sixth seed (47%), and 16 end with the Chargers in the seventh seed (25%). Fun!

What’s at stake for Broncos: Win and they’re the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Beyond that, they can still clinch the No. 1 seed with a tie and a Patriots loss or tie. They can also get it with a loss, as long as the Patriots lose and the Jaguars lose or tie.

Are both teams going for it? The Broncos almost certainly will, with head coach Sean Payton describing Sunday as “like a playoff game” and stressing the importance of the No. 1 seed historically. The Chargers, meanwhile, are resting quarterback Justin Herbert, who fractured his non-throwing hand in Week 13, along with running back Omarion Hampton, outside linebacker Khalil Mack and safety Derwin James Jr.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

What’s at stake for Commanders: There’s still a small chance the Commanders secure the No. 2 overall pick in the draft. They’d need to lose, and they’d need the Giants, Jets, Titans, Cardinals and Browns to all win. Unlikely. But maybe!

What’s at stake for Eagles: The Eagles get the No. 2 seed in 25% (16 out of 64) of the Week 18 NFC scenarios. All of them require an Eagles win and a Bears loss. Otherwise they’re the No. 3 seed, since the Bears own the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Are both teams going for it? QB Tanner McKee will start, giving Jalen Hurts rest before wild-card weekend. Head coach Nick Sirianni hinted that he’d rest some starters Monday. The Commanders will start Josh Johnson at QB and are expected to play their starters, with head coach Dan Quinn hinting injuries are the only thing that would keep players out.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

What’s at stake for Lions: Only the chance to help deny the Bears and their former offensive coordinator the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Lions will pick in the teens in the first round of the NFL Draft.

What’s at stake for Bears: If the Bears win, they’re the No. 2 seed in the NFC no matter what by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Eagles. If the Bears lose, they can still clinch the No. 2 seed with an Eagles loss to the Commanders.

Are both teams going for it? Lions head coach Dan Campbell has indicated his starters will play, including Amon-Ra St. Brown but not Penei Sewell, as long as they’re not risking long-term injury, plus it fits the franchise’s ethos to do so. Bears head coach Ben Johnson, meanwhile, said Monday “we’re playing to win this week.” So it sounds like Chicago will be going for the No. 2 seed.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

What’s at stake for Jets: The Jets can get the No. 2 pick with a loss and a Giants win. It also might not hurt head coach Aaron Glenn to finish the season with a good performance after some ugly losses this season, despite team ownership indicating he’ll be back.

What’s at stake for Bills: The Bills can move up to the fifth or sixth seed in 37.5% of the remaining scenarios, so they’ll have to win and let the other results fall where they may.

Are both teams going for it? Head coach Sean McDermott said Josh Allen should be “good to go” for Sunday despite being limited in practice, though it remains to be seen if Allen or other starters will play. As for the Jets, well, they’re in full-blown find-out-who-wants-to-be-here-next-season mode, so in some sense, you could say they’re “going for it.”

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

What’s at stake for Cardinals: The Cardinals can still get the No. 2 pick with a loss and wins by the Giants, Jets and Titans. Arizona has shut down wideout Marvin Harrison Jr., who has had a disappointing sophomore season.

What’s at stake for Rams: Thanks to the 49ers’ loss on Saturday, the Rams can secure the No. 5 seed with a win. Otherwise they’ll be the sixth seed.

Are both teams going for it? Rams head coach Sean McVay said he won’t rest starters in Week 18, which makes sense given how messy his team has looked in recent weeks and the fact that they still have seeding to play for. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have given no indication they’ll sit anyone yet.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

What’s at stake for Chiefs: The Chiefs can lock up a top-10 pick with a loss. It might be Travis Kelce’s last career game, and he’ll want to go out with a win. Otherwise, not much else in a rare lost season for Kansas City.

What’s at stake for Raiders: If the Raiders lose, they’ll clinch the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. If they win it gets dicier, but there are still several scenarios that land them the top pick.

Are both teams going for it? Andy Reid has indicated his starters will play. As for the Raiders, well, it’s trickier. Pete Carroll hasn’t directly said starters won’t play this weekend. Then again, Maxx Crosby seems a little defiant over being shut down due to a knee injury, while Brock Bowers was placed on injured reserve with a knee injury he’s battled all season. So at the very least, the Raiders are giving the outward appearance of being ready to close up shop on this campaign. Which, of course, would be good for their draft status.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

What’s at stake for Ravens: If the Ravens win, they’re the AFC North champion and the No. 4 seed. If they lose or tie, they’re out of the playoff race.

What’s at stake for Steelers: If the Steelers win or tie, they’re the AFC North champion and the No. 4 seed. If they lose, they’re out of the playoff hunt.

Are both teams going for it? Hell, yes. There’s a reason this is Game 272. And Lamar Jackson says he’ll be back from injury.

NFL Week 18 scenarios: Broncos, Patriots, Jaguars vie for AFC No. 1 seed while NFC teams jockey for position

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